2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP: Rubio & Hillary lead their parties for 2016; Hillary 8 points ahead of Rubio in matchup
February 07, 2013
New PPP polls both nationally and in Iowa find Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton leading the way for their party's respective 2016 nominations, with Clinton leading Rubio by 8 points in a hypothetical head to head.
For the third month in a row in our national 2016 GOP tracking Rubio leads the way. He's at 22% to 15% for Paul Ryan, 13% each for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Rand Paul, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Susana Martinez. Rubio continues to lead based on his appeal to the furthest right segment of the Republican Party- he's at 28% with 'very conservative' voters to 15% for Huckabee and 14% for Ryan.
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On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to dominate both nationally and in Iowa. Nationally she's at 58% to 19% for Joe Biden, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, and 3% for Andrew Cuomo. She's even stronger in Iowa at 68% to 21% for Biden with no one else over 2%. Her favorability rating with Democrats there is 90/5.
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Clinton leads in head to head match ups nationally with all of the leading Republicans. She's up 8 on Rubio 49/41, 6 on Bush and Ryan at 49/43 and 50/44 respectively, and 46/42 on Christie. Biden does an average of 3 points worse than Clinton against the Republicans- he's up 48/43 on Rubio, 49/45 on Ryan, 48/45 on Bush, and ties Christie at 44.
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More at link:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/looking-ahead-to-2016-nationally-and-in-iowa.html
hedgehog
(36,286 posts)bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)They are going to try to push for someone further right. Rubio not only fits that description, but he is also a minority. Republicans know they are in trouble because of their lack of ability to get minorities to vote for them. Now, I'm not saying this will work. I'm saying they may try it.
libertyandjustice24
(21 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)In the primary yes, in the GE I think he'll do worse.
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)He's a lightweight empty suit that's not ready for the national stage.
Rozlee
(2,529 posts)I'm looking at the emptiest suit of all, George W. Bush. But, Rubio does have his share of problems with gaffes and a history of rigidity against women's reproductive rights. Plus, as far as Hispanics go, he's not popular with us outside of Florida. He'll probably swing pretty hard to the right during the primaries to woo the teabaggers, then have to kiss up to women, youths and other minorities in the general elections to make up for lost ground. He's like Mitt; he's flipped flopped on too many issues like Social Security, immigration and contraception.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)for president. Bush had some serious help winning though (both times) and also got a much higher percentage of the Latino vote then the next two nominees after him. Neither Grampa McGrumpy or Mitt the Money Man seemed to match that.
libertyandjustice24
(21 posts)simply because it is hard to defeat an incumbent no matter who it is. Also, I just felt like Mitt Romney did not really want to be in the race. He got in it because he was the Republicans best hope so he obliged. I think its obvious Gary Johnson will win though haha.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Because Rubio definitely has a shot at it.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)I think at the deep core, establishment level, it is pretty obvious that they think the key to them having a shot at the Presidency in 2016 is to deal with their issues with Hispanics.
In their simple minded, entitled bubble, they think they should get hispanics to vote for them because of their "conservative values."
It is driving them nuts that they can't just get them to brainlessly pull the level for them like every other group they have managed to con into their fold.
The ONLY thing they are willing to be active participants (do their job) in congress over the next two years is immigration reform, because they believe it will be to their political advantage.
You already see them putting Rubio in front of that.
IMO, they will be the jackasses they are, scream how the world would have come to an end if the president had his way with immigration reform (it will be simple common sense crape we all agree on), tout how it only passed because of Rubio's great leadership, and angle to get him on the ticket in 16, either at the top or VP.
He he is good looking, and is like Ryan, smooth in spewing their bullshit. Would likely lock up Florida.
Yeah, a lot can happen between now and then, but I think as of today this is what they are looking at.
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)In 2005, the election for 2008 was supposed to be Hillary vs. Rudy, correct?
Gentle-man
(39 posts)It's just too early.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I think they wanted the grudge match that never occurred for the NY Senate seat in 2000.
antigop
(12,778 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)He's a charismatic speaker, which is very rare for Republicans, and the media seems to like him a lot, which is huge.
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)He's got nothing going for him other than his apparent charisma that the media keeps hyping up and orgasming over. He certainly can't run on his actual record which is virtually the same as every other wretched Republican in Congress.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)for personal use... he's teflon on that. And he's best buds with Rep. Rivera a known criminal essentially with whom he bought a house in Talli that foreclosed, guy is a nothing, but true he speaks fairly well.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to dominate both nationally and in Iowa. Nationally she's at 58% to 19% for Joe Biden, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, and 3% for Andrew Cuomo. She's even stronger in Iowa at 68% to 21% for Biden with no one else over 2%. Her favorability rating with Democrats there is 90/5.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Clinton leads in head to head match ups nationally with all of the leading Republicans. She's up 8 on Rubio 49/41, 6 on Bush and Ryan at 49/43 and 50/44 respectively, and 46/42 on Christie. Biden does an average of 3 points worse than Clinton against the Republicans- he's up 48/43 on Rubio, 49/45 on Ryan, 48/45 on Bush, and ties Christie at 44.
The only thing I really like about Hillary is that she's electable. Well, Biden is too apparently. I like Biden more. So, if he has a legitimate shot of winning in 2016, I'd rather support him.
Little Star
(17,055 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)Other polls don't have him at #1. I think that the Republican nomination will remain very fluid.
As for Hillary, no surprise there. She's been the most popular politician in the nation for quite a while now.