2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Coming GOP-Evangelical Divorce
by Michael Tomasky Mar 30, 2013 4:45 AM EDT
It may take a couple of election cycles, says Michael Tomasky, but Republican moderation on social issues is inevitableand many evangelicals will respond by withdrawing from politics.
What are evangelical conservatives going to do? I ask the question not with any sympathy, but with a mountain of schadenfreudian gleeI am profoundly reassured about my countrys direction every time I hear Tony Perkins bemoan it. But however its asked, its a question thats growing more and more urgent. Mike Huckabee says that if the GOP embraces same-sex marriage, evangelicals will take a walk. Others pooh-pooh this on the usual grounds that theyve got nowhere else to go. But they do: back to private life. And its my bet that in, say, eight or 12 years time, thats where a lot of evangelicals will be. Having gotten into politics to rescue America from the sinners and fornicators, I reckon a critical mass will decide by 2024 that it was fun while it lasted, but that the fight is hopeless.
Its going to be fascinating to watch and see what the party does on same-sex marriage as these next months and years progress. I, for one, do not expect to see the senators tumble like dominoes after the push from Ohios Rob Portman. Too many of them are from states where adopting that position would be suicide. Remember, were talking here not about the mores of the state as a whole, but of its GOP primary voters. So Claire McCaskill could announce her support for same-sex marriage in Democratic Missouri. But Roy Blunt in Republican Missouri? One doubts it. Different state, really. He in fact just reaffirmed his support for the Defense of Marriage Act.
Perusing the list of GOP senators, one sees only a few who might follow Portman. Susan Collins of course; Mark Kirk; Kelly Ayotte, at least on geographic grounds, although shes quite conservative. You get the idea. I havent studied the political situations of all 232 GOP House members, and I wont, but the general picture is similar. Right now, a grand total of two GOP House members back gay marriageIleana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida and Richard Hanna of upstate New York. Two.
This is all pretty amusing because after Portman, some people started talking and writing as if some sort of floodgates were opening, but in reality it would be completely shocking if more than 20 of Capitol Hills 279 Republican solons were backing same-sex marriage as we approach 2016. There may well not be more than 10.
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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/03/30/the-coming-gop-evangelical-divorce.html
brooklynite
(94,591 posts)...while evangelicals may step out of political life as far as advocating for policy or determining primary elections, they'll likely still be voting come November, and unless they decide they just "don't care" about social issues, they'll likely be voting Republican as the lesser of two evils.
Cosmocat
(14,565 posts)is over stated.
The GOP has morphed into an EXTREMIST right wing party, that exponentially over the last two decades has been whipped into complete lock step by its extreme interest groups.
MAYBE, and I say maybe cause it is not set in stone, but maybe they are not quite as unified as they have been.
But, end of the day, the evil democrat will still be very much viewed as one and the same with satin himself by the religious right.
You might not have the enthusiasm, and maybe not the relentless drive.
But, most will still view it that way, get out and pull the lever for Rs.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)I don't see that as a problem. It's just one factor which has always been there. In the last few years, when they started getting their foot in the door for real they've turned into bullies against their own party who aren't quite as Christian as they are. I think most Americans like to think they have a choice of what party to belong to. Who wants to be part of a party that bullies you? The Democratic Party wouldn't last long if they bullied us.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)olegramps
(8,200 posts)As the adults who hold stringent views and dominate the discussion pass on they are replaced with younger people who have become enlightened despite the attempts to indoctrinate them. Having been raised in a culture that was radically racist, I am heartened by the attitudes of, not only the youngest generation, but those in who were in the teens during the push for Civil Rights who have greatly modified their view.
Of course there will always be those who resist enlightenment, such as those who think the earth is flat, created 6000 years ago and deny the evidence of evolution. They not only become irrelevant, but are destined to be regarded as hopelessly ridiculous nincompoops.
Comatose Sphagetti
(836 posts)Hope it comes to fruition.
cbayer
(146,218 posts)on two issues - abortion and GLBT civil rights.
Some evangelical groups are re-focusing on things like environmental concerns, but I can see a time where they may go back to being relatively apolitical.
And that's just fine with me.
Good article. Thanks for posting it.
Mopar151
(9,983 posts)She is operated by the Bush-Rove branch of the GOP.
Jamaal510
(10,893 posts)If they're not going to vote Republican, who else is there for the Fundies to vote for besides the heathen Democrats? I doubt that the Libertarians are crazy enough for them on the social issues, and the Constitution Party is simply way too small for them to make noise.
Cha
(297,277 posts)now. The Todd Akinites. We know where that led. May it happen more often to let Good Dems in who are reality based.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)show the religious right that they have no where else to go and that they'll either have to fall in line and support the republican party or get out of politics all together. Most likely the republicans will let the gay marriage take place and pay lip service to the religious just like they do with abortion.
Yavin4
(35,441 posts)Support for Evangelicals and their causes was only to build a political base for their tax cuts for the wealthy. If they cannot win elections because of Evangelicals, then the Republicans will walk away from them.