Nate Silver Gives Markey Substantial Edge....Special Election, D-MASS
Rep. Edward Markey (Steven Senne/AP)
In a post on his FiveThirtyEight blog, Silver projects a 15-point victory for Markey — a significantly larger margin than the four-point spread in the first independent poll in the race, a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey that gave Democrat Markey a 44-40 lead over Republican Gomez.
Silver’s model for forecasting Senate races weighs a series of “fundamentals” alongside polling results. As the campaign marches on and the polls pile up, he writes, the model gives more weight to surveys — even if they fly in the face of the fundamentals. But early in the campaign, the polls can be less than reliable.
Silver considers up to seven fundamentals in evaluating any Senate race. But four don’t apply to the Markey-Gomez race – one, for instance, involves the coattail effects of presidential elections.
That leaves three factors to evaluate: the candidates’ ideology relative to the voters in their state, their fundraising and their history of being elected to public office. Markey has the advantage in all three categories.
The rest:
http://www.wbur.org/2013/05/07/nate-silver-markey
= new reply since forum marked as read
I am going to call and see if I can help with rides to the polls.
The recent PPP poll, which had Massachusetts voters giving President Obama relatively high marks, is a further indication that the political mood is nothing out of the ordinary at the moment.
Still it will all be GOTV!
Thanks She!
We need to move this forward as fast as we can!
Markey for Senator 2013! 
Just found this in my email~
On Monday, I'll be in Framingham at Ed Markey Campaign HQ to thank volunteers and talk with people about why it's so important to elect my friend Ed to the United States Senate.
Will you join me? Here are the details:
Join Elizabeth Warren at Ed Markey's Framingham Campaign HQ
Monday, May 13th
1:00 pm
303 Worcester Road (Route 9 West)
Framingham, MA 01701
(view map here)
I'm fighting for working families in the United States Senate, but I can't do it alone. I need people like Ed fighting alongside me to build a better future for our kids and grandkids.
We only have six weeks to go until Election Day, and I'm counting on you. We need the same grassroots energy in Framingham for Ed that we had just a few months ago for my campaign.
Thanks again for all your help, and I hope to see you in Framingham on Monday!
Elizabeth
P.S. If you can't make it on Monday, please still sign up to volunteer for Ed's campaign. Every phone call you make or door you knock could make the difference. Thanks!
Wow! So close to me Cha!
Is there a chance you could be there? Sounds pretty historic to me. So Glad Elizabeth is getting out there for Markey.. figured she would but so Good to actually know.
Massachusetts Strong~ Markey for Senator!
'cause you have to work Sunday. Lucky to have your Mom to take out.. that's really a blessing. 
Who knows.. maybe you'll end up meeting the dynamic duo anyway.
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No mom to take out, Cha. So sorry.
I will say Happy Mothers day for both of us!
Mom in my dreams 
so, it's all good as we say. I'm not even going to see my son because he has a house to finish building by July. Then he's getting married in Hong Kong. I understand, though.. I'll get Calls from him and my daughter.
I called my grandson today in Portland Ore.. it's his 18th birthday today. 
Thanks for the pics of Elizabeth and Markey.. they look so spectacular together!
