2016 Postmortem

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts) Tue Jul 2, 2013, 06:50 PM Jul 2013

Nate Silver:McConnell Likely to win reelection

Once again the democrats shot themselves in the foot buy picking a weak candidate he was left for dead(politically) that is http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

12 replies

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Nate Silver:McConnell Likely to win reelection (Original Post) bigdarryl Jul 2013 OP

McConnell will soooooooooooooo lose trueblue2007 Jul 2013 #1

It will be a hard reelection. This is what Silver says Mass Jul 2013 #2

...and KKKoch Bros. PAC money. Liberal_Stalwart71 Jul 2013 #4

And your alternative candidate is... brooklynite Jul 2013 #3

I really don't get it. Allison is by far our best candidate. Rowdyboy Jul 2013 #5

Interesting that you choose to put that slant on the information. BlueMTexpat Jul 2013 #6

Six points is close davidpdx Jul 2013 #7

Yes, there is definitely BlueMTexpat Jul 2013 #8

I did davidpdx Jul 2013 #9

If I see it, I certainly will. BlueMTexpat Jul 2013 #10

That's not really a slant. "Likely" just means greater than 50%, Hosnon Jul 2013 #11

If he doesn't choke on his own turtle throat. JM42 Jul 2013 #12

trueblue2007

(17,240 posts)

1. McConnell will soooooooooooooo lose

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Tue Jul 2, 2013, 06:57 PM

Jul 2013

as long as that moron puts out ads like this, he has no chance at all.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/watch-mitch-mcconnells-shockingly-bad-campaign-ad-against-opponent-alison-lundergan-grimes/

Mass

(27,315 posts)

2. It will be a hard reelection. This is what Silver says

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Tue Jul 2, 2013, 07:50 PM

Jul 2013

Actually, it is likely that Grimes is a better candidate than Judd as she has been elected in a statewide election with 60% of the vote.

The point is that it is hard to beat an incumbent with a lot of seniority and leadership position. Pork matters. Ask Reid.

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)

4. ...and KKKoch Bros. PAC money.

Reply to Mass (Reply #2)

Tue Jul 2, 2013, 10:57 PM

Jul 2013

brooklynite

(94,757 posts)

3. And your alternative candidate is...

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Tue Jul 2, 2013, 09:09 PM

Jul 2013

Rowdyboy

(22,057 posts)

5. I really don't get it. Allison is by far our best candidate.

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 3, 2013, 01:39 AM

Jul 2013

I'm thrilled she's running! At least now we have an outside chance.

BlueMTexpat

(15,374 posts)

6. Interesting that you choose to put that slant on the information.

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Wed Jul 3, 2013, 02:11 AM

Jul 2013

My reading - and Nate's headline, btw - go on to say that McConnell's re-election is not guaranteed.

Here is a more direct url: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/01/re-election-is-likely-for-mcconnell-but-not-guaranteed/?_r=0

Nate evaluates the chances of ANY Democrat's winning in a thoroughly red state like Kentucky as long. But he gives better odds to Ms. Grimes than one might think.

From the article:

... But in 2008, he [McConnell] defeated the Democratic nominee, Bruce Lunsford, by just six percentage points: 53 percent to 47 percent.

At the time, Mr. McConnell, while not widely popular, was more popular than he is now. And Mr. Lunsford’s favorability numbers were not as strong as Ms. Grimes’s currently are. ...

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)

7. Six points is close

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Reply #6)

Wed Jul 3, 2013, 06:04 AM

Jul 2013

Especially given McConnell is an incumbent and has been in office for so long. As someone else mentioned, it is hard to pick off incumbents.

An interesting question for Nate would be to look at the length of incumbency versus senators who have been unseated (upset) by a challenger. I think to do this though you'd have to remove cases like where Mike Lee beat Bob Bennett as that was a totally different reason for the incumbent losing.

BlueMTexpat

(15,374 posts)

8. Yes, there is definitely

Reply to davidpdx (Reply #7)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 06:14 AM

Jul 2013

some reason to hope.

You should send your suggestion to Nate!

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)

9. I did

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Reply #8)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 06:44 AM

Jul 2013

Can you do me a favor? I don't follow his column as much as I've got my doctoral work that keeps me busy. If you happen to see that he does a column responding to my question could you give me a shout? I am fascinated to know his answer. Thanks!