NJ Senate Projection: Booker 62.0%, Lonegan 36.4%

This projection is based on public polling. Only voters who have declared a preference for Booker, Lonegan, or 'Other' have been included in the calculation; undecided voters have been excluded. Polling in recent NJ Senate races (2006, 2008, and 2012) has suggested a tendency for the leading candidate to over-perform on Election Day; adjustments have been made based on this tendency.

Given that recent polling has shown a distinct tightening of the margin between Booker and Lonegan, the size of Booker's projected victory may seem unreasonably large. However, it is important to remember that Booker's polling remains strong, with his share of the three-way (Dem+Rep+Other) vote never falling below 55%. His 'ceiling' is an overwhelming 68% and his average is over 60%. Given his sizable money advantage over Lonegan and the unusual nature of this special election, 62% of the vote is not an unreasonable outcome.



The projection for this county map is based on election returns from three senatorial races (2006, 2008, and 2012), two gubernatorial races (2005 and 2009), and two presidential races (2008 and 2012). Lonegan is projected to win five counties while Booker is projected to win sixteen.

Swing Counties

If the outcome is more favorable to Lonegan, the following counties would be most likely to swing in his direction (current projection in parentheses):

Cape May (Booker 50.5% - Lonegan 47.9%)
Monmouth (Booker 50.5% - Lonegan 47.5%)
Somerset (Booker 52.8% - Lonegan 45.5%)

Thus, in Lonegan's best case scenario, he would win eight counties.

If the outcome is more favorable to Booker, the following counties would be most likely to swing in his direction (current projection in parentheses):

Morris (Lonegan 50.4% - Booker 48.8%)
Ocean (Lonegan 51.0% - Booker 47.2%)
Warren (Lonegan 52.7% - Booker 45.2%)
Sussex (Lonegan 52.8% - Booker 43.6%)
Hunterdon (Lonegan 55.3% - Booker 42.0%)

In Booker's best case scenario, he would win every county in the state.