2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe big winner tonight for the Republicans?
Jeb Bush.
The fundamental difference in the sociology of the two parties is that the Democrats consist of various groups that have high overlapping areas of interests: minorities, anti-war, woman's rights, economic justice, sexual orientation civil rights. There really is no antagonism between the group and virtually every Democrat sees themselves as being a part of several groups.
Republicans are a collection of fundamentally antagonistic groups: defense hawks, corporate establishment, evangelical, pro life, tea bag, racist, John Birch, and they really don't like each other. The fact that it was so close in VA will give the TeaParty hope, they just need to 'tweak' their message, not overhaul it.
They are now polarized into the Cruz vs Christie factions. Both will be able to mobilize money and people. There is no real room for compromise and they will battle it to the end.
The reality is that Republicans must take Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia to get close to the electoral college. Cruz can't do it. Christie can't even deliver NJ. The Republican who has the best chance with those states will be Jeb Bush.
Over the next 3 years Christie and Cruz will be involved in inter party and partisan fights that will leave them both bloodied and diminished. Jeb Bush can remain quiet on the sidelines and float above it all and in 2015 enter the primaries a fresh face that unifies a bloodied party and reaches out to Hispanics.
Ironically we just moved closer to a Bush/Clinton race in 2016.
FoxNewsSucks
(10,435 posts)For several years, I've thought that the reason the crazies like Quitter Palin, Cruz, Angle, Christina the Teenage Witch, etc etc were getting so much national attention and treated like "legitimate" candidates was to make Jeb Bush appear normal in comparison.
How else to get the American Sheeple to vote for another member of the Bush Crime Family?
Blue Owl
(50,513 posts)Still, pretty good night for our team!
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)I literally had the same idea that all Jeb has to do is keep it low key for awhile and pow, 2015, fuck up the race. His talk about the "Positive Republican Agenda" also would allow him to come in with a new approach for the Republican party.
Ironically, even still, if this happens it could force the Democrats to move to the left to shift their views from the Republicans and differentiate themselves.
Cracklin Charlie
(12,904 posts)Hopefully it's enough to keep him out of any national office.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)But it will work to get the nomination.
mnhtnbb
(31,405 posts)Might as well just flush the country down the toilet. It is such a nasty,
cheating, lying family.
Adsos Letter
(19,459 posts)A better sound bite can't be had at any price.
Edits: struggling with punctuation...
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)They have done enough to wreck the country.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)I can vote early, and vote often!
IronLionZion
(45,540 posts)And VA looks to be a big blue sweep even if AG is a razor thin margin the Dem is currently ahead and growing with absentee ballots in liberal counties.
So their only big victory was the non tea party governor who worked with President Obama after hurricane sandy.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)The VA looks to be a big blue sweep to rational eyes.
To the Tea Party they came within 3 points of electing a real Republican and they were outspent 4 -1.
From their point of view the establishment Republicans sold them down the river one more time. For most of them it means that they have to double down and stomp their feet twice as hard. Others will start to get weary and just start to give up on politics.
No matter what it is, it is not a unifying event, the Republican civil war continues.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)down." Kind of like a calm, kinder, gentler Uncle. A lot of money is somehow standing by until he decides...one way or the other. And Barbara's comment...pshaw...what male politician takes political orders from his Mother?
Jeb is "the smart one" and I'm pretty sure he feels it's his turn. Just a matter of when.