Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 04:41 PM Feb 2014

Yes, Pundits, Hillary Has the 2016 Nomination in the Bag - By Robert Shrum

Unable to tolerate the idea of a one-woman race, political pundits are pretending Hillary Clinton isn’t the inevitable 2016 Democratic nominee. They couldn’t be more wrong.

Handicappers in the presidential race abhor the opposite of a vacuum—a campaign two years out where one candidate seems to blot out the entire field. Thus a mini-chorus now rises, and may swell, questioning Hillary Clinton’s apparent lock on the 2016 Democratic nomination. It’s a predictable reflex, but in cold, hard reality, logic suggests that the lock is authentic, not just apparent. And in modern history, or virtually all American history, Hillary’s inevitability is unprecedented for a non-incumbent.

First, the logic. Who can seriously challenge her march toward a closing night acceptance speech at the next Democratic convention?

With a deft touch of humor more enjoyable than enlightening, Matt Bai suggests that Hillary is “no more likely to clear the Democratic field and avoid a primary … than Dennis Rodman is to become her Secretary of State.” Her fundraising advantages and her strength among “party regulars” make “her vulnerable to another grassroots challenge.”

But history doesn’t metronomically repeat itself. There is no Barack Obama waiting in the wings this time—and the last time, he wasn’t exactly in the wings. He had captured the party’s attention and admiration from the moment he commanded the national spotlight with a stunning keynote speech at the 2004 convention. It’s utter mythology that he came out of nowhere in 2007; some of the smartest Democrats, including Clinton loyalists like Greg Craig, who had defended the president during impeachment proceedings, signed on with Obama early on.

more
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/17/yes-pundits-hillary-has-the-2016-nomination-in-the-bag.html

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Yes, Pundits, Hillary Has the 2016 Nomination in the Bag - By Robert Shrum (Original Post) DonViejo Feb 2014 OP
the only person that can stop her is herself nt geek tragedy Feb 2014 #1
Meh, Shrum's opinion tends to lack credibility Xyzse Feb 2014 #2
You wrote... DonViejo Feb 2014 #4
Oh, my apologies Xyzse Feb 2014 #7
No need to apologize... DonViejo Feb 2014 #8
Yeah, it was him. Xyzse Feb 2014 #10
Just keep pushing her to the left 4dsc Feb 2014 #3
That's a great point! CTyankee Feb 2014 #5
I don't think the pushing will be all that difficult... DonViejo Feb 2014 #6
I really don't. Chan790 Feb 2014 #16
can't change a leopard's spots just by wishing. Whisp Feb 2014 #13
This should be good........ Beacool Feb 2014 #9
It's too early to discuss this struggle4progress Feb 2014 #11
Midterms come first, Bob Shrum. nt Jamaal510 Feb 2014 #12
Hell, why even have the fucking election. BlueStater Feb 2014 #14
Amen Splinter Cell Feb 2014 #15
There are no positive "sure things" in politics. sofa king Feb 2014 #17
We are going to be fed the same inevitability BS we were in 2008 davidpdx Feb 2014 #19
Shrum is a long time Clinton confidant and wouldn't be expected to say anything else davidpdx Feb 2014 #18

Xyzse

(8,217 posts)
2. Meh, Shrum's opinion tends to lack credibility
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 04:51 PM
Feb 2014

When it comes to elections and stuff like that, usually anything he says is the reverse of what actually will happen.

I don't expect much from the guy whose only real credits are concession speeches.

Sorry to say, but maybe he has a point, but in general I don't put much stock on his opinion.

DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
4. You wrote...
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 05:28 PM
Feb 2014
When it comes to elections and stuff like that, usually anything he says is the reverse of what actually will happen.


Could/Would you please link to some examples of this? Thanks in advance!

Xyzse

(8,217 posts)
7. Oh, my apologies
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 05:40 PM
Feb 2014

In regards to winning with Kerry and his other Presidential hopefuls.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9895-2004Sep9.html
http://howlinglatina.blogspot.com/2007/04/bob-shrum-wrong-as-usual.html

In regards to Obama not winning with using his record.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dem-strategist-bob-shrum-i-dont-think-the-president-could-win-a-referendum/
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/04/shrum-if-obama-runs-on-his-record-hes-toast/

I guess I am still a bit miffed with him with the quick concession from Kerry through his recommendations.

I actually have nothing against Clinton. I'd vote for her if she becomes the nominee.
However, I tend to think it is still too early, and Shrum tends to be wrong more often than not.

DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
8. No need to apologize...
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 05:46 PM
Feb 2014

I thought it was his screwiness during the Kerry campaign but couldn't recall if it was him or not; I was living out of the country at the time. Thanks for responding Xyzse, much appreciated

 

4dsc

(5,787 posts)
3. Just keep pushing her to the left
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 05:25 PM
Feb 2014

If she's going to be the nominee then we need to keep pushing her ideals to the left and get her away from the centrist positions that are not good for the middle class and poor.

CTyankee

(63,912 posts)
5. That's a great point!
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 05:35 PM
Feb 2014

We need to stop looking for saviors who come out of the blue and what can possibly go wrong?

I haven't signed on to her campaign. I am waiting and seeing. I do strongly believe we need a woman president, a Democrat. While I'd prefer Elizabeth Warren, I can see real problems with her making it to the White House. I have no doubt that Hillary could make it.

DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
6. I don't think the pushing will be all that difficult...
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 05:39 PM
Feb 2014

I believe she'll go willingly if she feels there is support for her to do that. Just my opinion.

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
16. I really don't.
Wed Feb 19, 2014, 12:00 AM
Feb 2014

I wouldn't have half the opposition to her I have if I thought she was anything approaching flexible on any major issue. She's running because she has an agenda and I suspect she'd opt to not run before she'd move an inch on her fiscal or trade policies. She's a RW Democrat and we don't need any more fucking RW Democrats masquerading as moderates. She's not a moderate, she's a charter member of the DLC.

Her policies are why I feel she's fundamentally not fit to be President.

 

Whisp

(24,096 posts)
13. can't change a leopard's spots just by wishing.
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 09:46 PM
Feb 2014

she is who she is and it seems to suit her and her rich family fine.

she may lie through her teeth during the primaries with promises promises, that won't be a surprise, but she will not be turning left.

BlueStater

(7,596 posts)
14. Hell, why even have the fucking election.
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 10:50 PM
Feb 2014

Let's just inaugurate her right now!

You and the rest of the ineviablity crowd make me sick, Shrum.

Splinter Cell

(703 posts)
15. Amen
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 10:53 PM
Feb 2014

You hit it on the head. She's the worst candidate we could nominate, and it's sickening to hear about her being the only choice blah blah blah.

sofa king

(10,857 posts)
17. There are no positive "sure things" in politics.
Thu Feb 20, 2014, 12:12 PM
Feb 2014

Good things in American politics always have to be fought for, protected, shepherded, and fussed over every step of the way, and Mrs. Clinton's struggle will be no different, if she does it.

I think it's crazy to call the nomination this far out. It's crazy because our opponents have long since shambled into criminal territory, and they have resorted to traitorous tactics designed to undermine and destabilize the government itself.

You can depend upon Republicans to continue that. So we can depend upon the early Democratic front-runner to be savaged at every turn. Can Mrs. Clinton survive it? Probably. But not without a hell of a lot of help. That's not a sure thing.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
19. We are going to be fed the same inevitability BS we were in 2008
Fri Feb 21, 2014, 05:00 AM
Feb 2014

I know there are a lot of people who aren't willing to call the nomination and want some alternatives to her. We'll see what happens, but I won't vote for her in the primary.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
18. Shrum is a long time Clinton confidant and wouldn't be expected to say anything else
Fri Feb 21, 2014, 04:57 AM
Feb 2014

He and many others stated last year they were behind Clinton. The inevitability drum beats yet again. Can't blame this one on the press.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Yes, Pundits, Hillary Has...