2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI keep hearing the Republican Party is self-destructing or in a lot of trouble...
... but the evidence does not seem to match up to that. It controls the House (due to gerrymandering, and albeit in a disorganized mess), could possibly take the Senate, and has large majorities in a number of states where it is disenfranchising voters, busting up unions, raiding public coffers to enrich private entities, and passing draconian anti-women legislation under the banner of "freedom." Until the moderates who identify themselves as Republican make a conscious decision to break away from their party and vote for a Democratic or Independent candidate not once but consecutive times the Republican Party is not going anywhere.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)I remember the premature death of the Democratic party after 1984....we were doomed after losing 49 states to Ronald Reagan, but guess what? we came roaring back in 1992. Then we were the dead party after 2004 due to some Republican wins here and there, but guess what? We came roaring back in 2006, 2008, and 2012. Neither party will actually die. That is what happens when you only have 2 parties. They stay alive forever.
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)The aging portion of society that voted like mad for their party since the '80s and continues to are starting to exit the building and it's just going to accelerate. Democrats on the other hand have a natural demographic advantage at the presidential level if the Repubs keep nominating someone close to their core beliefs. In the near future I'd be stunned if any presidential candidate carries 49 states again unless we're in the middle of some huge crisis and the current POTUS is perceived as being the right person for the task.
The Republicans are in deep doo-doo at the presidential level if they continue on their current trajectory. To correct it I see them having two choices if they want more votes: back off the anti-immigration xenophobic crap or get out of peoples' private lives (choosing both would make them Democrats).
Either would be a very bitter pill for their base to swallow but eventually they'll have to decide who they hate more, minorities or sinners (that's a tough call for them really). It may not happen until the SS Rove sinks into the ocean after losing too many elections; if it does I suspect the party will then be reborn more or less as libertarians.
A fortunately timed recession or catastrophe may throw them a life-saver for an election or two but it would be an aberration. The way they're going there is no future base for them waiting in the wings the way there has been for Democrats for some time now. Yes people may get somewhat more conservative as they get older but the trend towards social tolerance and secularism is quite permanent, as is the growing minority population.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)then the right's electorate will die off. I see it as a race to see what comes in first. The end of the right's electorate or the coming oligarchy.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Sorry but people are not that "same thinking". We will always have two parties but maybe in different forms or even names, but don't get carried away thinking that the Democratic party is going to be the only party.......even if that were to happen, it would split into two. One party rule doesn't work so well.
rock
(13,218 posts)"Unless we the voters do something drastic within the next couple of elections we may may just be cooked real good and be the party that is destructed."
genwah
(574 posts)Rozlee
(2,529 posts)But, their prospects look bleaker as time passes. Their core constituency is the pre-Civil Rights, pre-segregationist white voters and the right-wing evangelicals. Today's youth is more secular, more tolerant of what Republicans consider hot button social issues and believe more in government spending. The right-wing doesn't have a strong youth demographic to pass the torch down to. Millennials can't be bothered to rush to the polls to defend God, guns and rally against the Gay Agenda. They'd rather see relief from draconian student loan interest rates and jobs bills.
The social issues, yeah, mostly the Gen X and millennials are on a different page.
BUT, they absolutely believe in the PC meme and the big spending liberal, and that is where they tend to land politically that I can see.
And, the voting apathy is even great, which tends to lean more toward the angrier conservative vote getting out.
I USED to think like you, but I am not seeing I anytime in the near future, and I mean likely the rest of my life.
EEO
(1,620 posts)Right or wrong.
I have been aware of and following politics since the early 90s.
And, that has been the pattern - they rage and the mindless twits in this country follow them around gobbling it up.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)The young baby boomers thought the same way and then when they got older, some percentage of them became more conservative. What makes you think that won't happen again?
factsarenotfair
(910 posts)worn-out costumes that are starting to reveal what is underneath and replaces them with new costumes whenever needed. If people could see the ugly monster beneath the costumery, they would run away screaming and never vote Republican.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)EEO
(1,620 posts)Or its a gorilla thumping on its chest and throwing its own feces to show its dominance... I like that parallel better. Let's go with that.
In either event it is not nice. And the only way we have a chance to beat it is also being not nice. This whole treating the GOP as if its positions are as reasonable as fact-based positions to offer "balance" is complete bullshit and a cancer. Unfortunately, it is a cancer that is widespread through our politics and spread through the media.
Cosmocat
(14,567 posts)countless times here.
To me, 2010 was a very sobering wakeup call.
They SHOULD have been dead in the water for decades after Bush II left this country in a heap, but two years into the next Presidents terms the nimwits in this country gave them one of the biggest mid term windfalls in history.
They were jackasses in the 90s, jackasses in 2000s and are even bigger jackasses now.
And, the simple truth is, the bigger jackasses they are, the more this country becomes immune it and does not hold them accountable for it.
We're fucked.
former9thward
(32,064 posts)By my math that is 50 years. They said that when the "60s generation" grew up Republicans would be dead. Well guess what? They did grow up and a lot of grown up dope smoking hippies started voted Republican. The current claim is demographics. Maybe, maybe not.
You could eliminate gerrymandering tomorrow morning and nothing much would change. First of all it would hurt Democrats in states where Democrats controlled redistricting and did their own gerrymandering such as Illinois. Second Democrats tend to live in concentrated urban areas while Republicans are much more spread out. Figure out how to solve that problem and you will get a political genius award.
EEO
(1,620 posts)... tend to want to de-fund education. It's a swell vicious cycle that this country pays for over and over again.
Cosmocat
(14,567 posts)There is no solution to people being content with life ...
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)of course if you got rid of the sponsors and a few BIG scandals
ancianita
(36,130 posts)Proud Liberal Dem
(24,426 posts)However, 2016 looks rather bleak for them. They have over 20 Senate seats up for grabs- some of them some easy picking from 2010- so any "victory" in 2014 in the Senate will be short-lived for them and with the increased turnout of a Presidential year, we might be able to grab back the House and, likely, maintain the WH. The chief thing that we have to continue to try to figure out a solution too is keeping our people plugged in and voting every.single.election. Otherwise, we will be stuck in a cycle where we do really good for one election season (Presidential election years) and it is undone by the next midterm election because the Republicans are able to gin up all kinds of faux outrage against the newly elected Democratic President and then they can take back one or both houses in Congress and relentlessly obstruct us (again). I hope that, until the Republican Party's "Tea Party Fever" breaks, we can make them such a minority that they can't keep throwing sand in the gears.
NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)The most maddening part of being a loyal Democrat is our party's unfailing ability to put ourselves on the defensive. There is one reason why the Republicans have a decent shot at torching us in November:
Their success in tagging the Affordable Care Act and, as a result, the Obama presidency, as utter failures. It is their backdrop for the midterms.
They took the great logistical problems in rolling out the ACA and used them to build their case that the program itself is a disaster. Instead of fighting back, we wrung our hands and meekly rebutted with a "well, yes, it has been bad, but it will all get better."
We should have rebutted them with something like, "Typical right-wing blather. If it were up to them, they would have gutted Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, OSHA, and anything else that is meant to protect working people and their families."
So, with a bit under four months to Election Day, they have successfully molded the campaign's context. They simply keep repeating "Obamacare sucks, Obamacare sucks" and in response we backpedal away from it like scared kittens. Nixon is looking up from the bowels of hell and smiling at the sight of his MO still being successfully employed: Repeat something loud and long enough, and that perception becomes reality.
Do we have time to change this? Maybe.
Odds are, however, we won't.
Why did we win in 2012? We successfully sculpted Romney's, and his party's, policy profile.
Why are we on the verge of getting our clocks cleaned in November? We let them do it to us, just as they did it to us in 2010, 2004, 2002, 1994 ... because we let them repeat their narrow, simple-minded mantra and do little but whimper in return.
When will we grasp the simple truth that the best defense is borne from never being on the defensive!
EEO
(1,620 posts)You cannot be reasonable with people who are irrational.
NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)Liberalynn
(7,549 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)instead of fighting tooth and nail
tavernier
(12,396 posts)Andrea Mitchell and David Gregory and Joe Scar are no different from Rush or Hannity or Bill O. Yes we have Rachel and a few others, but they are usually treated like the red haired step children.
I don't think we should be hoping for the destruction of the GOP but rather for the birth of a new and inspired news gathering industry, based on truth and integrity.
NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)The only hope of getting anything close to equal time is to be bully them even more than the Tea Partiers do!
Liberalynn
(7,549 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)In fact our party is the one that is reeling, and has been for 25 years now.
EEO
(1,620 posts)They are Republican-light now.
The American people need to have things explained very simply, because most are ignorant of the most basic facts. Medicare? Government program (socialism). Medicaid? Government program (socialism) . Social Security? Government program (socialism). Recently got health insurance through a state health change? Government Program (socialism). Want better roads? (the government needs money to do that - socialism). People don't know these simple facts and spout off about the evils of socialism, when they don't even know what the hell socialism is (and often use the word "fascism" interchangeably).
"Take your government hands off my medicare," sums my point up quite nicely.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)to appeasers, apologists, and DINOs or "Republican-lite" as you say. I am so glad I'll be dead before long. I am trying to get my kids and grandkids to expatriate to a civilized country.
unblock
(52,286 posts)the fact that they can do what they are doing despite their mess is proof of the depth and extent of their support. it's astounding how many rank-and-file republicans will stand by them no matter what, and they keep testing that no-matter-what limit.
can you imagine just how powerful the republican party would be if they actually had their act together?
CrispyQ
(36,492 posts)Sure the party still calls itself the Democratic Party, but the party threw the working class under the bus when a two bit actor poked fun at them over the word liberal. They've been weak & running from the bully media ever since. They should have stood together & said, Fuckin' A we're liberals & here's why & then recited the Joe Conservative essay. But they saw the gravy train & decided to hop on it & now for the most part our two party system is just good cop/bad cop.
The dems have been campaigning on "We're not as bad as the other guy" for too long.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)The GOP!!! They ARE self destructing on a daily basis. The bottom line, is we have 2 major elections, within 3 years, to get this country back. November this year is a huge vote, which will most likely affect 2016 candidacy.
The more the GOP self destruct, the better the Dems are in November. Some 60% of voters don't vote. What a friggin waste. It's their future too!! But I digress. Of those 60%, I'd say most of them do not keep up with MSM. I would think occasionally some gets thru. So the odds of the "GOP self destructing" may get thru to some and hopefully they'll vote Dem.
The GOP has nothing. No health care for all, dissolve SocSec and Medicare/Medicaid. Most of us will need these services in our lifetime. They are racist and do not support women's rights. The list goes on and on. If it has anything to do with the promotion for the middle class, they are against it. I don't understand why people even support these idiots. But they do. Why? Because of their racist hatred against a black man in the White House.
And to top this, look at the people they think can represent them in 2016. They're all losers. Hell, they want Mitt to lose again. The GOP is collapsing, and I love it. But first we need to get control of the legislature. 2014 is our year. Get the word out, especially to the 60% that are uneducated in politics.
Self destruction of the GOP is happening daily. Look around. You'll find it.