It's hanging fairly steady between 59 and 60%

Meanwhile, Romney has dropped below 36%.

I don't see a problem.

By definition, it's subjective.

Intrade puts Obama's chances at 59.3% right now - hardly significantly down from where they were the last week. Yes, he's lower than the 60% he saw throughout much of February, March & April, however, the supposed 'slide' also started when Romney essentially locked up the Republican nomination - which was to be expected as he was no longer going to be pulled down by campaigning and his numbers improved significantly, as the markets coalesced around that idea.

Look at Romney's numbers over the same period:

https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=743475&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

In fact, Romney is doing worse today than he was in February, even with having locked up the Republican nomination. What you're seeing Obama's side is nothing more than static - as a 2 point drop is essentially nothing here and that's what we're pretty much looking at.

Wake me when Obama is back down to 50% and then I will suggest the gay marriage announcement significantly hurt his campaign. As it is right now, it's had little impact on the market.

to consolidate Republican support is not a significant indicator of the reaction to Obama's shift in position on Marriage equality. In fact it does not really indicate anything at all. Minor adjustments of 1% to 3% occur on prediction markets on an almost daily basis. Whether this shift by Obama creates a net gain or a net loss simply cannot be evaluated at this time.

The electoral college just is not favorable to Romney. It's very similar to the Democrats' in the 80s.

some maps I've seem suggest that Romney could sweep all of the toss-ups and STILL lose! The odds of him doing that, however, unless things just get simply atrocious somehow, seem pretty miniscule. The Republicans would have to have a REALLY good and run the tables for something like that to occur- and if that did happen (heaven forbid), then strap on your seat belts because we would then not only be looking at a President Romney but also Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and at least another 2 years of Speaker John Boehner. Just try to put that image in your minds (and the minds of your friends and loved ones) when you think about possibly not voting in November!

Got it.

Please look at the chart again. In the last two months, Obama's odds have dropped by 4 percentage points (from 60.5 down to 56.5 today). The dropping is steady and increasing. At this rate, he would drop by over 10 points by election day, giving Romney an edge of about 4%. Unfortunately, simply looking at the current rate of drop underestimates the odds, you have to take into account the rate of the rate, which is quite significant. This is very bad news for Obama and the country. Enjoy this brief interlude of civilization while it lasts.

Give me a fucking break. You're a concern troll. Wake me when Romney overtakes him. Until then, who cares if he's at 60% or 57%?

And where is this analysis of the "rate of the rate" which you say is "quite significant"? By the way there is no term in statistics of "quite significant." There is significant at some probability level, usually p = 0.05 or p = 0.01. Sometimes if p = 0.01 the term, "highly significant" is used. But "quite significant" is not a term used in statistics. There is just "significant" or "highly significant." However it is used in seat of the pants analysis, which is what you are doing. AKA "bullshit statistics."

I would say welcome to DU but I would be lying if I said I wanted to welcome you.

Obama is up .19 today as the fallout from Marriage Equality evens out.

Intrade is non partisan.