60% is super close to 50%! we're tied! really!

afaik, silver didn't say republicans would win. all he's saying is that at the moment, they appear to have the edge. is it possible that it's actually a 50-50 toss-up? perhaps, though odds are republicans are slightly ahead at the moment.

more important is that the election is not being held today, and time, i think, is on our side, as people get more familiar and used to the aca and as the economy continues to slowly improve.

I love reason number two. Ignore the probabilities because "Silver has done ... what it takes to attract eyeballs."

Anyone who says something that scares me is a liar.

it is why they were so surprised by the election results. Romney didn't even bother to write a concession speech because he had totally swallowed the nonsense Repub pollsters were serving up.

We should instead be trying to GOTV--because if we can get people registered, make sure they have necessary IDs in those states that require them, and make sure they can and will get to the polls, we will sweep Republicans away.

needs to do more research on Ole Nate's prediction results for senate races. This is a guy who said Harry Reid was going to lose, as well as Tester and Heitkamp both only had a 10% chance of winning in 2012.

It would be wise not to make the same mistakes the Republicans made in 2012 with regards to election predictions......Nate Silver was right on the mark in 2012, and Right Wingers poo-pooed his predictions and claimed all the polling was skewed. They were SHOCKED at the fact nobody saw the Presidential beating Romney took coming, except, everybody who cared to see, did see it coming. Think of this as an opportunity and a wake up call, the D's are in danger of losing the Senate and putting the GOP in charge of both houses of Congress. If you thought the last few years were bad, stand by for a huge cluster f#$k if they take over the Senate.

Both of these are actual models, not simple averages of whiever polls you happen to like.

I can say this: we can't afford to make the same mistakes we did in 2010, that's for sure.

like the house.. if we lose the senate.. it is because people sat flat on their rear ends and did not go out to vote.. so it is imperative that Democrats turn out the vote.. Nate Silver is a darned good pollster.. and this is a moment in time.. and I think we will retain the senate.. but its a wake up call for sure..

That is pretty much my take, too.

Silver is a pretty straight shooter, and as you noted, he has made it clear that this numbers are what it is at THAT time.

They Republicans need to TAKE the Senate, so that puts the onus on them and more can go wrong.

But, the dynamics of an off year election simply are what they are - democrats sleepwalking enough to allow the steadier republican voters to out number them.

SO, it is a war of attrition, can we find a way to somehow just hold on to enough ... And, as noted, while they will game voting however they can at the state level, the Presidential and senate elections are at the very least not defined by gerrymandering, so there is hope.

the gerrymandering of the house.. and somehow confusing that with the entire congress... and there is no hope.. so it is incumbent on Democrats (and I am one) to push and push hard to get our side to the polls..no matter what obstacles are put in front of us.. because there are more of us than there are of them.. and we can keep the senate.. heck, if we push hard enough we can even make some inroads back in the house (the crazies are on the loose over there).. we have another six years before we can do a realignment of districts for the house.. but we can keep that senate!!

Nate Silver just deals with the numbers as they are at the time of whatever poll he is taking.. he is not one to massage numbers to meet some political agenda of his own..That is how I have always viewed him..

he's way into the NFL and college football now too. may-be not putting as much effort in politics as he is in sports. JMHO.

start calling out the do nothing, obstructionist majority
dems will stay home if elected dems don't start talking more progressive
a lot of us are tired of these corporatist that control both parties

Look it up on google.

Nate's write-ups are long-winded and confusing. Most people do not really get the probabilities. A fair number probably think Nate is saying the GOP will win 60 seats. Try this, it is easier on the brain and eyes: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/07/senate-2014-election-update-dems-52-gop.html