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CBS News/NY Times poll: Romney leads Obama (Original Post) ilikeitthatway May 2012 OP
50% approve of Obama, yet he only takes 43%? Dawson Leery May 2012 #1
good points. If Obama's stance on gay marriage is what swung this Laura PourMeADrink May 2012 #9
I was wondering the same... in a Minnesota poll they actually asked Tom Poll Master May 2012 #17
So two groups with business interests best served by a close election predict its close? DJ13 May 2012 #2
poll is a call back poll of previously called participants Godhumor May 2012 #3
How in the fuck is that even possible? liberal N proud May 2012 #4
amen..They did it before. And, Mitt's the slimiest one who would definitely buy some Laura PourMeADrink May 2012 #10
The only thing that matters is the electoral college cindyperry2010 May 2012 #5
Ha. Wouldn't it be funny if Romney won the popular vote and we Laura PourMeADrink May 2012 #11
Yeah, OK BeyondGeography May 2012 #6
this is the page with all the polls on it not just a select few cindyperry2010 May 2012 #7
Hmmm. 67% think Obama announced his stance on gay marriage for political Laura PourMeADrink May 2012 #8
Apparently, a lot of poll respondents think bullying is a-ok. nt. MH1 May 2012 #33
Those numbers make no sense at all. Mr.Turnip May 2012 #12
See my other reply. This is not a traditional poll, it is a call back poll Godhumor May 2012 #13
They didn't even bother to screen for 'likely voters'... PoliticAverse May 2012 #14
Do we ilikeitthatway May 2012 #15
There are several to choose from... PoliticAverse May 2012 #16
Yikes!! Skrewdriver May 2012 #18
It is about time someone stood up for civil rights. As for those who voted for him in 2008 but still_one May 2012 #19
I'm sorry, but the time shouldn't be during the general election!! Skrewdriver May 2012 #21
Don't you think they looked at polling on the issue beforehand especially in swing states ? n/t PoliticAverse May 2012 #28
Obama is no Kerry, Obama will fight attacks. Kerry just let the attacks occur for months before he still_one May 2012 #37
Yet, Obama shows ten times MORE respect for Senator Kerry politicasista May 2012 #44
Another point, that poll is not representative still_one May 2012 #38
This message was self-deleted by its author politicasista May 2012 #45
Yikes ScoobyDoo! Obama wants to let queers get married! Rowdyboy May 2012 #20
Politically smart how? Skrewdriver May 2012 #22
Its five months until the election...Obama took a principled stand backed by a majority of Americans Rowdyboy May 2012 #23
Please tell you aren't naive enough to Skrewdriver May 2012 #24
Hahahaha you used the word "libs" Arkana May 2012 #31
How appropriate for your 10th and final post on DU....I knew you wouldn't last long Rowdyboy May 2012 #42
Romney was up in Gallup before the announcement Mutiny In Heaven May 2012 #26
BEFORE EVERYONE FREAKS THE FUCK OUT... Drunken Irishman May 2012 #25
thank you for the insight LynneSin May 2012 #29
+1 mac56 May 2012 #30
Good points, just too bad media pundits will be using it to show Obama is slipping. WI_DEM May 2012 #35
Thank you Drunken... tallahasseedem May 2012 #36
Say it with me: Ex-Pat Pats Fan May 2012 #27
+1 Proud Liberal Dem May 2012 #32
This poll is complete and utter BS--it's the only poll I've seen where Women favor Mittens WI_DEM May 2012 #34
Poll Robbins May 2012 #39
Breaking: Team Obama says NYT/CBS poll used biased sample Marzupialis May 2012 #40
They knew when they saw it that it would mean a good media week for Mitt Arkana May 2012 #41
Even Real Clear Politics (a mostly conservative site) kept the poll out of their average. Jennicut May 2012 #43
 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
9. good points. If Obama's stance on gay marriage is what swung this
Mon May 14, 2012, 10:58 PM
May 2012

toward Romney, it really makes not sense. I would think women
would be more sympathetic to the cause. Can't believe that many
could have swung to Doofus.

Tom Poll Master

(26 posts)
17. I was wondering the same... in a Minnesota poll they actually asked
Tue May 15, 2012, 12:41 AM
May 2012

the question:

President Obama says that same-sex couples should be able to get married. Do you agree with the president? Or disagree?

52% agree and 42% disagree. See my post in Immizen.com with the complete chart.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
3. poll is a call back poll of previously called participants
Mon May 14, 2012, 10:13 PM
May 2012

As stated right in the methodology, it caused significant issues in getting responses. It has massive selection bias, and really should not be considered a "normal" poll.

liberal N proud

(60,340 posts)
4. How in the fuck is that even possible?
Mon May 14, 2012, 10:14 PM
May 2012

My only thought is that they have to make it sound like the race is close so they can steal a state or two.

They did it before, and know how.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
10. amen..They did it before. And, Mitt's the slimiest one who would definitely buy some
Mon May 14, 2012, 11:00 PM
May 2012

fraud software from Jeb. At least crazy asses Ricky and Noot, don't strike me as voting machine
fraudsters.

cindyperry2010

(846 posts)
5. The only thing that matters is the electoral college
Mon May 14, 2012, 10:15 PM
May 2012

delegate map and President Obama is beating that ass GO VOTE

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
11. Ha. Wouldn't it be funny if Romney won the popular vote and we
Mon May 14, 2012, 11:01 PM
May 2012

won the EC. Then, they certainly would push for EC reform.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
8. Hmmm. 67% think Obama announced his stance on gay marriage for political
Mon May 14, 2012, 10:53 PM
May 2012

reasons. This sucks.

I thought the ass-holey bullying would be the end of MR

Mr.Turnip

(645 posts)
12. Those numbers make no sense at all.
Mon May 14, 2012, 11:05 PM
May 2012

I can't see ANY situation where Obama is at 50 approval and yet is losing to Romney, let alone at 43% and behind among WOMEN too.

Incumbents usually OUTPERFORM their approval ratings by a few points, they don't underperform by 7, that's almost impossible.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
13. See my other reply. This is not a traditional poll, it is a call back poll
Mon May 14, 2012, 11:11 PM
May 2012

There is selection bias present, which the pollster admits in the methodology.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
14. They didn't even bother to screen for 'likely voters'...
Mon May 14, 2012, 11:15 PM
May 2012

and again we don't elect Presidents by national popular vote.

ilikeitthatway

(143 posts)
15. Do we
Tue May 15, 2012, 12:20 AM
May 2012

Do we have a layout of the electoral college, and where Obama current leads at the moment with each key state?

 

Skrewdriver

(10 posts)
18. Yikes!!
Tue May 15, 2012, 01:01 AM
May 2012

I knew his stance on gay marriage would back fire on him. And that poll saying 51% of Americans agree with his stance of gay marriage is not jiving with majority of the polls out there. Which is why I wish he would've waited until his 2nd term to endorse gay marriage. Its not worth losing the election to Romney who will just take all the credit for all the hard work Obama has done. I live in Fl and folks at work are saying they aren't going to vote for Obama because of his stance on gay marriage. Some of them who voted for him in 08 are saying they will just stay home. I'm just so angry right now!!

still_one

(92,372 posts)
19. It is about time someone stood up for civil rights. As for those who voted for him in 2008 but
Tue May 15, 2012, 01:26 AM
May 2012

won't now because he supports civil rights, when is the right time for someone to stand-up for something that is right?

The right time is always NOW

It will never happen if it keeps getting put off

As far as those who won't vote for Obama because of this, they may reap the consequences of their actions, and if their small minds don't remember that it was because of republican policies in the last 20 years that have brought this country to its knees, then I wish them the worst

 

Skrewdriver

(10 posts)
21. I'm sorry, but the time shouldn't be during the general election!!
Tue May 15, 2012, 02:12 AM
May 2012

Its damn near political suicide. Is it worth losing the election, when Obama would've endorsed gay marriage during his 2nd term anyway? Is it worth it for Mittens to potentially take credit for all of Obama's hard work and to slam the door shut on all the progress we've made and the teabaggers to win in Nov? Hell no, imo, its not worth it during the general election, Obama could be Kerry 2.0 over this.

still_one

(92,372 posts)
37. Obama is no Kerry, Obama will fight attacks. Kerry just let the attacks occur for months before he
Tue May 15, 2012, 11:10 AM
May 2012

decided to speak up. By then it was already ingrained.

As for you assessment that it is political suicide, it isn't.

Of course that was the same argument made by many Democrats in Congress voting for the IWR, that it would be political suicide NOT to vote for it.

After a million dead, and the continued loss of Democratic influence, perhaps it is about time they took a position

What this is about is a war against, women, gays, civil rights, social security, medicare, and the economy.

Gore was weakly defended a "women's right to choose". In the last twenty years the Democrats have not stood up for issues that were the foundation of the party

It is about time they did.

I hear your point, but there are too many examples in the last twenty years where the Democrats took the "easy" path, and look where we are today.

politicasista

(14,128 posts)
44. Yet, Obama shows ten times MORE respect for Senator Kerry
Wed May 23, 2012, 04:16 PM
May 2012

than people here ever will.


Very proud of our classy and respectful president that continues to respect Dems, Liberals, and appreciate their efforts as surrogates, instead of stomping all over them and throwing them under the bus.

Thank you President Obama for taking the high road instead of eating our own.

still_one

(92,372 posts)
38. Another point, that poll is not representative
Tue May 15, 2012, 11:12 AM
May 2012

The Obama campaign is pushing back hard against a New York Times/CBS poll that showed Mitt Romney with advantage with women and reported that voters overwhelmingly believed President Obama backed gay marriage last week for political reasons.

"We can't put the methodology of that poll aside," deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter told MSNBC's Chuck Todd. "It is a biased sample."

"Aside from being outlier, CBS/NYT poll used weird methodology -- same voters as last month, reached fewer of them, more IDed as GOP," campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said on Twitter Monday.

At the heart of the dispute is the fact that the poll used a 'panel-back survey' — polling a group of voters who have already been interviewed in previous polls. In this case, the drawback is that 852 registered voters were in interviewed last month, and just 562 agreed to be reinterviewed by the pollster.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/05/team-obama-nytcbs-poll-used-biased-sample-123487.html


Response to Skrewdriver (Reply #21)

Rowdyboy

(22,057 posts)
20. Yikes ScoobyDoo! Obama wants to let queers get married!
Tue May 15, 2012, 01:31 AM
May 2012

Polls don't determine what is morally right and Obama did not only the right thing morally but also the politically smart move.

I feel your pain. Get over it.

 

Skrewdriver

(10 posts)
22. Politically smart how?
Tue May 15, 2012, 02:18 AM
May 2012

Obama is now losing in every polls since his endorsement of gay marriage, when just a week before he was winning handedly. I'm not getting over anything, this election is too important. When president Mittens is in the White House reversing everything Obama has done and all the progress we've made, lets see how quickly you get over it.

Rowdyboy

(22,057 posts)
23. Its five months until the election...Obama took a principled stand backed by a majority of Americans
Tue May 15, 2012, 02:28 AM
May 2012

I really don't see that as a loser.

Beating Mitt Romney is going to be a very tough job and our president has chosen to "man up". I'm sorry you're afraid he's too weak to take the challenge head-on but you really don't give him nearly enough credit.

I understand your "concern". But don't worry-he'll see it through without the bigots.

 

Skrewdriver

(10 posts)
24. Please tell you aren't naive enough to
Tue May 15, 2012, 03:04 AM
May 2012

believe that usaservey poll saying 51% of Americans agree with Obama on gay marriage?lol I have a bridge to sell you!! I hate to say it, but usaservey is lying, they just want to boost the morale of the pro-gay community. The reason I know that poll is a lie, is because every time gay marriage is placed on the ballot it is struck down by majority of voters. Again, if majority of Americans favored gay marriage, why has Obama sunk deep in the polls since his gay marriage endorsement, when just a week earlier he was beating Mittens handedly? I don't think Obama is weak, your words not mine. A weak black man would never run for president considering all the hate and death threats against him among many other reason I don't think he is weak. He's pretty brave actually, braver than Bush and Clinton, because he is willing to lose an election because of something he believes in. And you are naive if you think there aren't bigots in the democratic party, liberals are a small percentage of the democratic party and even libs can be bigots. Those reagan democrats, Christian latinos, blacks and working class whites will be much needed in Nov, especially in FL, NC and Va. If high and mighty libs, think they are just going to bash and slam Christians who lean democratic and think they will come back easily into the fold, they've got another thing coming.

Mutiny In Heaven

(550 posts)
26. Romney was up in Gallup before the announcement
Tue May 15, 2012, 05:39 AM
May 2012

His lead in Rasmussen is where it was before and this poll is a highly dubious, selective sample.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
25. BEFORE EVERYONE FREAKS THE FUCK OUT...
Tue May 15, 2012, 04:02 AM
May 2012

And yes, my headline needed all CAPS. PLEASE calm down and read the following...

This is not a typical network poll. This poll only called back respondents who took the last CBS poll, which had Obama and Romney tied. In theory, it works - though, I still think you need a random sample every new poll to make sure you're not focusing on an abnormally large number of Romney/Obama supporters than actually exist. It's why most networks, especially the closer we get to the election, will release multiple polls within a month so they have a broader, larger sample size to correct potential errors in their last polls.

Beyond that, as we see in this case, not everyone who took the poll last go around will take it again. In the last CBS poll, 852 registered voters took their poll. Of those same voters who took the poll last month, only 562 took it this go around. That's only 65% of the original poll takers. 562 people is a very, very small sample size for a national poll. Every other national poll will have at least 800 people as their sample size.

This poll should not be taken seriously and shame on CBS for doing it.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,436 posts)
32. +1
Tue May 15, 2012, 09:14 AM
May 2012

We haven't even had the conventions or debates yet and anybody swayed by President Obama's announcement of support of marriage equality probably was pretty soft in their support of him anyway if they're going to let a single issue like that swing them over to Romney.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
34. This poll is complete and utter BS--it's the only poll I've seen where Women favor Mittens
Tue May 15, 2012, 09:17 AM
May 2012

and I don't see any compelling reason why that would happen.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
39. Poll
Tue May 15, 2012, 11:17 AM
May 2012

Here Is rule.Any poll that has Obama lower than His approval Is BS.Just like Gallup having Obama at 49 percent approvol and getting
only 45 percent of the vote against Romney.

2004 showed If people approve of president they will vote for him.

the republican biased usatoday Gallup poll Is trying to claim Romney's favorbilty Is going up.Seriously the bullying story and his
favorabilty goes up?

Romney up by 2 among women?Thst Is BS If I ever saw It.

What Is purpose of these bad polls?Very simple.The MSM needs a horserace.They need people to think Romney could win.They are trying to encourage Republicans and disencourage democrats.

Arkana

(24,347 posts)
41. They knew when they saw it that it would mean a good media week for Mitt
Tue May 15, 2012, 11:45 AM
May 2012

if they didn't push back, so they pushed back on what is clearly flawed methodology. The panel backs oversampled Republicans and undersampled independents.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)
43. Even Real Clear Politics (a mostly conservative site) kept the poll out of their average.
Tue May 15, 2012, 02:51 PM
May 2012

It is bad poll and not a fresh sample. Makes NYT and CBS look bad and they don't usually do such sloppy polling.

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