Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Tue May 15, 2012, 10:19 AM May 2012

In June of 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 6-points in a Gallup Poll

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx

The last time an incumbent president was up for election. Kerry also led in July before Bush generally had a small advantage in Gallup up until the election. So, I think the national polls in May, June & July (such as that NY Times bull poll) are not generally barometers as to who will win. I think polls after the conventions and debates will be more conclusive.
14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
3. Especially if you are vote-switching in THE critical swing state!
Tue May 15, 2012, 10:25 AM
May 2012

The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis
How Kerry Votes Were Switched To Bush Votes
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html

crazylikafox

(2,761 posts)
6. True. Kerry most likely won. But it was close enough to steal! Hopefully, not this time!
Tue May 15, 2012, 10:39 AM
May 2012

If we let it be close enough to steal, they will. Already started with voter suppression. GOTV!

Botany

(70,567 posts)
7. That was election night 2004 after Karen Hughes had told W he had lost
Tue May 15, 2012, 10:43 AM
May 2012

Early in the day Ohio, Florida, and a bunch of other states had all been going for
Kerry and it was going to be a landslide in the electoral college but then Rove,
Smartech, Blackwell, and others got busy.

I worked that election in Ohio that day .... it still haunts me.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,436 posts)
8. Hughes had told Bush he had lost?
Tue May 15, 2012, 10:46 AM
May 2012

Hadn't heard that story (probably for obvious reasons). I remember that things had initially looked positive for Kerry but as the evening wore on and the election seemed to be turning on Ohio, I saw the handwriting on the wall, which was just confirmed the next morning when Kerry conceded. *ugh*

O.k., so that's even worse. They weren't campaigning in the WH, they were busy stealing the election (again).

Botany

(70,567 posts)
9. Yes Karen went and told W he lost in late afternoon or early evening
Tue May 15, 2012, 11:09 AM
May 2012

.... and W just laughed. The Ohio vote was going to be shipped to a computer in Chattanooga,
Tennessee that evening where it was going to be worked on to make sure that it turned out
right because despite all the voter suppression and other dirty tricks Kerry was still going to
win the state so that was Rove's firewall. The I.T. man who ran that little scam Michael Connell
died in a very neat little private plane crash in Dec. of 2008.

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Karl_Roves_IT_guru_Mike_Connell_1220.html

Nye Bevan

(25,406 posts)
10. Wow. Talk about a raw deal.
Tue May 15, 2012, 11:56 AM
May 2012

If I was the IT guy who stole an election, I would expect $25 million in a Cayman Islands bank account. Not to be killed off in a plane crash.

Botany

(70,567 posts)
12. He and his family were starting to talk and had come to realize that W and company .....
Tue May 15, 2012, 12:36 PM
May 2012

... were evil people. He also had control over the private White House emails and was
in line to give testimony about them. He had death threats before and two times he did
fly his plane because he felt something was wrong w/ it. I know a couple of attorneys
who were trying to find out about what happen in Ohio 2004 and they were aware of the
death threats too.

The media knows about all of this but will not touch Ohio 2004 for some reason or another.

Final exit polls CNN 1:07 AM 11/3/04

Ohio Male Voters 47% bush 49.5% Kerry
Female Voters 47% bush 51% Kerry

After this CNN started to post "blended polls" which mixed the exit polls and the voting results.

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
11. GOTV! How many voters have been bumped off the rolls this time, and how many ID rejects
Tue May 15, 2012, 12:07 PM
May 2012

will there be. Never before has voter registration been so important. The R's have already shaved several percentage points in key states!

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
13. And shortly before the election that year,
Tue May 15, 2012, 01:39 PM
May 2012

John Zogby, the pollster, said on some show (The Daily show maybe) when asked who was going to win, absolutely without hesitation said John Kerry. I was very disappointed that he did not come out afterwards to talk about why he was wrong -- which he wasn't. It's clear to all of us that the election was stolen that year.

JaneQPublic

(7,113 posts)
14. The bin Laden message shortly before election...
Wed May 16, 2012, 01:43 PM
May 2012

...has often been said to tip the undecideds in Bush's favor. Apparently, a little gibberish from
Al Qaeda was all it took to convince some people that there was validity in the GOP ads with the wolves circling the door. Idiots.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»In June of 2004 Kerry was...