2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP: Obama leads in NC 48-47
PPP's newest poll of the Presidential race in North Carolina finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 48-47. That sort of razor thin margin has been the constant in PPP's 19 monthly polls of the state dating back to November of 2010. Only once has either Obama or Romney led by more than a 3 point margin, suggesting the state's headed for the same sort of photo finish it had in 2008.
This month's poll does represent an improvement for Romney. The one time the race strayed from a 3 point margin one way or the other was last month, when Obama led by 5 points. Since wrapping up the Republican nomination Romney's seen a 13 point improvement in his net favorability from -29 (29/58) to -16 (37/53). He's still not popular, but his standing with independents and GOP voters is getting a lot better as conservatives unify around him for the general.
Obama maintains strong advantages with several key groups that should ensure North Carolina remains closely contested right on through the fall. He's up 53-43 with women, reflective of the GOP's struggles with that voter group everywhere. He has a 55-35 advantage with young voters, showing little slippage from our polling in 2008 with them. And he's polling at 87% with African Americans and more importantly we continue to see high levels of enthusiasm from black voters, making it likely that they'll again comprise 23% of the electorate as they did in 2008.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-holds-small-lead-in-nc.html#tp
Hawaii Hiker
(3,166 posts)Good old Scott, cooking the books....He botched several races in 2010 and Nate Silver did a good piece on it...
There is no way etch-a-sketch would win NC by 8..
RDANGELO
(3,433 posts)They continuously seem to have a contradiction with that.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)which it has been (mostly) for months.
It's a deadheat In NC which perhapes a slight edge to Obama.
Now at same time RAS Is trying to claim Romney Is up by 8.Which I call BS.
PPP has come out with polls with Obama ahead In Iowa and NH.And In dead heat In NC.This puts dent In the mSM Romney doing well
memo they are trying to send out thanks to CBS/NYT poll.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)I have always thought It would be close In NC.Noone Is going to win It In 2012 by more htan 1 or 2 points.That Is why I totally
reject RAS's numbers(other reasons too) it Is a battleground state that will be fought.That's why the convention Is being held there.
NC should see plenty on our side from Obama and Biden.And from the other side plenty of ads.