2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPew: Democrats 47 Republicans 46 in generic ballot for Congress
A one point lead isn't going to get us to take over Congress so I don't know how to take this polling its neither good news or bad news in that it looks like there won't be serious House seat loses if any that's how I take it http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/23/1338704/-Pollster-with-best-record-in-12-and-10-shows-Dem-lead-in-Generic-Ballot
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)just saying, becasue too may democrats and progressives shirk their voting privileges and don't get off their lazy asses and why GOP/conservatives win elections
why I cant stand general democratic whining about GOP....if we vote, we win
if we don't then we get what we get
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Which means it has expected turnout factored in.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Waste of money to even do polls like that, other than to give people reasons to whine when reality fails to conform to their hypothetical generic ballots.
JustAnotherGen
(31,828 posts)And I just don't believe any of the polls this election. They can Monday morning quarterback all they want - but the Cantor loss shows they don't get to the right people, enough cell phones, and a broad enough cross section. And that was an internal campaign poll that put him so far ahead.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)One, to 'keep control' of the Senate, even if simply thanks to Independents who caucus with Dems, and two, for Mitch McConnell to be fired. Not my Senator, but I just want to see turtleman out.
JustAnotherGen
(31,828 posts)ETA - Mitch McConnell getting fired by the people of Kentucky would be a true repudiation of all things stupid in America.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)1. I want my black American brothers and sisters to get out and vote in numbers so HUGE, like nothing we've ever witnessed before--that both Nunn and Carter win!
2. I want Democrats to retain control of the U.S. Senate
3. I want McConnell to be defeated, especially since he wanted Obama to be defeated and made that his #1 goal for which no one is holding him or the ReThugs accountable. And this I wish for even though I am thoroughly pissed off at Allison Grimes!
and...
4. I want to see the look on Chuck Toad's face when the Democrats defy expectations, not only retaining the Senate but improving their numbers in the House.
Democrats need to understand the damage they did by failing to get involved in 2010--all because they were angry at Obama and the Democrats. We cannot expect perfection. We cannot expect 100% purist policies. That is NOT how government works. This is coming from someone who works in government. We must learn and accept this truism and never allow another "Election 2010" to happen ever again!
It's all about turnout. That's why Republicans are deliberately trying to stop black folk like me, my family and friends from voting. That's why they're trying to stop women like me and my single female friends from voting. That's why they're trying to stop young, college-aged kids from voting--like the ones I used to teach political science to and stress the importance of voting. Now that they finally understand how important voting is, the ReThugs are trying to stop them from exercising that right. They're trying to stop anyone who would ever vote Democratic from voting, period.
They are hateful, pathologically evil people. And after every thing they did to destroy this economy, after getting us into all these wars, countless attacks on our civil rights--they have successfully led us to shift the blame to President Obama and Democrats. And it has sadly worked! Instead of blaming THEM for what THEY did and holding them accountable, we point the finger at President Obama. I know much of that has to do with this man's race. No one can convince me otherwise. But some of it also has to do with our lack of nuance as to how this political system works and our IMPATIENCE with that. Change has NEVER occurred overnight. It takes time! We don't get what we want right away. We have to work hard and fight for what we want. We can't just give up after only 2 years of fighting (2008-2010), get mad and sit out an election during a Census year! I blame us for doing that. We failed big time in 2010 and now we pay the price. The only way to undo this mistake is to get up and vote; and get everyone we know to vote!!
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Which is a rewrite of history. Dems who stayed home in 2010 did not do so because 'they were angry at Obama' or expect 'purist policies' whatever the hell that even means. Your activist liberal types came out and voted as they always do, even though they were 'angry with Obama and Democrats'. The Dems who stayed home in 2010 were the same Dems who stay home EVERY midterm, because they simply aren't all that interested in voting when there isn't a Presidential race on the ballot, because most of the time no one does anything to enthuse them enough to rise out of midterm apathy.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)and to understand that we have to remain engaged. One thing I've always admired about Republicans is their fight. I'll take the abortion issue for example. They kept losing battle after battle, but they knew how to fight. They understood that winning first starts at the local levels. They actually took a page out of the Democratic Party playbook. Historically it was Democrats who were well groomed for political office because they became career politicians, beginning at the state level and moving their way up the ranks, positioning themselves as careerists and workhorses because they believed in public service. Unlike traditional Republican party candidates who just saw running for office as a stepping stone to achieve some ideological purpose, for power and prestige, or to create networks with business or other corporate entities. Today, we're seeing the opposite. Republicans are making this thing a career. They are drunk on this political power and prestige, and guess what? They don't have to do a damn thing but sit on their hands and obstruct--and they are being rewarded for it.
Meanwhile, because Democrats--for the most part--are dedicated to public service, they come into office, making all these promises; hoping to reform and pushing for just that. But the realities hit them in the face and they are forced to do unpopular things (raise taxes, cut popular programs). American voters get away; see, we love our government programs even though we swear that we hate government itself! But as it turns out, the economy gets better. The economy ALWAYS gets better under Democratic administrations, including and *especially* THIS ONE! However, because there is no cooperation from the other side (Remember, Bill Clinton had Republicans who were interested in working with him) things don't improve fast enough and not for everyone. So, voters get frustrated, angry, impatient--and naturally they take it out on whoever is in power. And unfortunately, rather than blame those who didn't cooperate and never had to make any tough decisions (Republicans) they take it out on those who sacrifice even when their own party is furious with them (Obama, Democrats).
So what will happen now? Republicans will return to power. And believe me, I have argued until I'm blue in the face that if Republicans take back the Senate, Hillary will NOT become president. I believe this with every fiber of my being. Why? She will be forced to distance herself from Obama--even though his has a solid record of successes. In doing so, she will alienate black voters (me included) who will skip her name on the ballot and vote Democratic on the down ballot instead, or stay at home altogether. There's a reason that she and Bill are out there campaigning; in my view, it is in their best interest that Democrats do well.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)And annoying
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)power to suppress the vote if they had the numbers on their side.
FBaggins
(26,743 posts)The AP polling over the same period showed us down by 8 points (and they aren't the only one to show it as a 5+ point gap).
While the other posters are correct that generic polls aren't directly applicable, a gap that high woud imply that several races are in play for republicans that we're counting on. Instead of a mid-single-digit loss of seats, it might be a dozen or more.
This poll (if correct) implies that we won't lose more than a handful of seats. With gerrmanderng and the headwinds of a 6th-year election... that's really a solid performance.
brooklynite
(94,585 posts)yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)Unfortunately the advantage needs to be a lot more than 1% to overcome that.