The keys are 13 diagnostic questions stated as propositions that favor re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer of these propositions are false the party holding the White House wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

One of the keys that count against the incumbent party is an internal nomination contest, which is also the single best predictor of presidential election results. Since 1860, in only four of 27 elections has a relatively uncontested nominee lost the popular vote — Herbert Hoover in 1932, Richard Nixon in 1960, and George H. W. Bush in 1992, and John McCain in 2008 — for a win rate of 85 percent. In only one of 12 elections has the winner of a contested incumbent-party nomination won the popular vote — James Garfield in 1880 (by a tenth of a percentage point), for a loss rate of 92 percent. Since World War II, nomination battles that extended seriously beyond the early primaries have augured defeat for incumbent parties in 1952, 1968, 1976 and 1980. McCain’s 2008 nomination could also be considered contested, adding another election to this list.

Democrats should be saying: “Run, Hillary run.” She is the only candidate who can win a wire to wire nomination and retain for the party the nomination contest key. Republicans can fight out the primary season without worry, as demonstrated by challenger victories in elections with contested nominations such as 1952, 1960 and 2008.

The 13 Keys to The White House== a valid formula per Al C. The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win.[4]

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.