2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTed Cruz will be the Republican nominee.
He will slaughter any Republican candidate because of his "great debate skills." This will not, of course, win him the Presidency, but he will win the nomination because no one comes close to his level of rhetorical flourish.
Bookmark this. The dude was #1 in the country as far as a debater. The media has nothing else but "debates" to measure a candidacy.
And, importantly, Ted Cruz would allow the last dying breath of the far right to get their ideology heard. Religious indoctrination is literally his platform. They will vote for him in droves. He will win the nomination with ease.
Any contenders?
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)Calls for quality education. He's picking on the very particular issues that the young vote espouses.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)HAHAHA. How many progressives will believe his nonsense? Please. Fuck. Please.
Note: I did not post this post and the video above with the knowledge the video above was when he announced. I literally picked a random Cruz video. He announced in this video and I didn't realize.
Fuck Ted Cruz and his "grassroots army."
trusty elf
(7,402 posts)but it still seems too early to tell. I don't look forward to seeing pictures of his gag-inducing face all over the place.
Does reading "Green Eggs and Ham" count as rhetorical flourish?
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kairos12
(12,875 posts)Paladin
(28,276 posts)Cruz has spent his years in D.C. pissing off as many power brokers as possible, and it's fixing to blow back on him. First hint of things to come: the immediate announcement by John Cornyn, Cruz's fellow Republican Senator from Texas, that Cornyn will not be supporting Cruz for President. Cruz is at the bottom of the Republican popularity heap for a reason---he went out of his way to earn it.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)The other candidates don't know it. Cruz will throw out whatever rhetoric will make him win. He knows the game.
MosheFeingold
(3,051 posts)That's almost an endorsement. LOL.
He's a very smart guy, but his ideas are evil.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)Gingrich used to be sold to us as this brilliant ideas guy, but that all turned out to be empty PR too.
Paladin
(28,276 posts)If you've got a pulse and you're a Republican, the path is open to you, there. (Two words: Rick Perry.) I'm with you---whatever alleged intellect Cruz possesses has been safely masked by his extremist ideology, so far.
MosheFeingold
(3,051 posts)IS actually stupid.
Yupster
(14,308 posts)He ran for the senate seat that the sitting Lieutenant Governor already declared for and the entire state party was lined up with Dewhurst, who was quite conservative himself.
Paladin
(28,276 posts)his fate was sealed. Whatever remaining popularity Dewhurst had with the state party leadership didn't make any difference.
MosheFeingold
(3,051 posts)He was at the top of his class at Harvard law, Alan Derschowitz says he was the smartest student he ever had at Harvard law, and he was the top-ranked debater in the country in college. I believe he also had near perfect SATs and LSATs.
He also did well as a lawyer, multiple times, arguing before the US Supreme Court.
So "smarts" is not the problem.
Evil is the problem.
Paladin
(28,276 posts)....now that his wife's cushy Goldman Sachs insurance has gone bye-bye. He's obviously making this move to be able to whine and complain about every aspect of his new coverage. That law school intellect isn't translating into anything approaching political finesse, as yet; his cringe-worthy speeches assure that his debating skills will stay camouflaged for a while, as well. (And I wouldn't trust Alan Derschowitz, even if he swore the sun were going down in the west this evening.)
Volaris
(10,274 posts)yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)Any Republican to the left of Jerry Falwell will flee from him.
sharp_stick
(14,400 posts)he's overrated, over hyped and totally narcissistic. Even his own colleagues outside of the teabag caucus can't stand the prick.
Just watching him speak to the International Association of Firefighters is priceless. He's totally baffled that they aren't laughing and cheering at his incredible brilliance.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-11/ted-cruz-without-applause-is-the-most-gripping-video-you-ll-see-all-day
He won't win a single State.
CanonRay
(14,119 posts)He leave a trail of stupid soundbites for the media idiots to feast on. He'll hang on for the money and notoriety, as he has an ego the size of Canada, but he can't win it.
Nitram
(22,892 posts)The media does not by any means judge candidates solely in terms of their debate skills. That's an absurd suggestion. How about past statements, past bills supported or opposed, personal scandals, and negative advertizing (i.e. Swift Boat)?
Arkana
(24,347 posts)n2doc
(47,953 posts)phleshdef
(11,936 posts)Don't consider that a compliment to Gingrich, I just thought he was the better debater out of that whole circus.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)If you look at the polling in 2012 he had a huge media invented surge. And it was purely due to debate performance.
IL17Progressive
(1 post)Cruz has the oratory & presentation skills, inviting tones and manners of the revival show preacher or a carney barker or smooth talking snake oil sales men.
Numerous people (possibly a majority of Citizens) will be drawn to the mesmerizing manner much as music draws one in. That majority never fully absorb the words or connect the words as thoughts and actions but picking out some partial melodies or stanza or rhythms that entrance them.
All the analysis of cause - effects, good or bad, dominionist or atheist will be to no available. Those 'intellectual' discussions will not be heard as the tune is what mesmerizes.
Current media of all forms (TV, paper, internet) will spread the melodies far and wide -- because it is news to fill the 24/7 frame! Analysis, cause & affect, discussion, identifying consequences are NOT news.
Just as a beer hall brawler 8 decades ago was able to move millions to act on the tune he sings ...
arcane1
(38,613 posts)arcane1
(38,613 posts)Where does he get this "#1 debater" status?
DavidDvorkin
(19,489 posts)thevoiceofreason
(3,440 posts)To political ability. The "debates" by candidates are so far removed from actual debating styles, or courtroom arguments, there is only a very weak correlation to political debates. If he had been a trial lawyer, folks who really have to think on their feet, then that would help him.
Appellate arguments, especially at the Supreme Court level, are highly structured and quite limited. In other words, you have rehearsed the argument (and the potential questions) a million times - few surprises. On a big stage with 10 other candidates, each sniping at you, or in an interview when hit with a question out of the blue, it is a far different scene.
In all, Cruz is smart, but he has not shown he is nimble. Thus, I respectfully disagree with the premise of the post.
tridim
(45,358 posts)And IMO he will be gone before the debates begin.
riqster
(13,986 posts)Grifting A'la Palin or Schock.
themonster
(137 posts)I don't think he will win the nomination. Although, I wish he would because he would be the easiest to defeat. I think that it will come down to Walker and Bush with Bush winning the nom. The Bush family have a lot of connections and a lot of money plus they play dirty. I just hope this country isn't stupid enough to put another Bush in the White House. I have no doubt that if Bush is President there will be another needless war. Maybe with Iran this time. Another big tax cut would be given to the rich to reward the donors who put him there. It would be sickening. Another nightmare.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I know that's kind of superficial, especially since my voice isn't all that better (LOL), but I really don't like his voice.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)and probably Perry. On the other side I don't see bush having to split votes with many moderates. It looks like 2012 on the repub side again where the moderate wins by default just because the crazies cancel each other out.
chelsea0011
(10,115 posts)And he can have a laundry list "of "everything I hate Obama's", but some time he will have to explain what he will do. In other words, a vision. It ain't gonna happen.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)I actaully think he's tee extreme even for a majority of RW'ers and would make it out of the primaries.
In fact, I think the RW will dismember him and he will suffer long term losses becasuse of this run. The Run for POTUS will make his stand and his intent at religious insertion very clear and to be feared.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)He had Iowa pretty much stolen from him and everyone knows it. I think he will be a candidate once the SCOTUS decision on marriage equality is behind him/us.
He can use that decision no matter which way it comes out. If they allow equality then he can rally the troops against the establishment which "stole" his nomination in 2012 claiming that this would not have happened if he had been the nominee. If they decide for inequality he will claim that he was on the right side of the argument all the time and claim vindication.
Cruz can't win a debate when others keep agreeing with him. In a debate you are forced to argue opposing viewpoints. The GOP debates will be an echo chamber. You can't assume great debate skills will be a deciding factor.
And as far as crazy goes, lets face it. Santorum is right up there with Cruz.
Reter
(2,188 posts)Santorum comes off as a whining fool.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)If so, I respectfully disagree.
Myrina
(12,296 posts)And still a few floating around saying it'll be Jeb Bush.
So, pardon my cynicism.
I can see Terrible Ted getting the VP nod, though, as an appeasement to the RWNJ voting block.
Corey_Baker08
(2,157 posts)Jeb Bush as Nominee worries me because Electorally Democrats need Florida to win & Jeb was a two term Governor there and is known statewide. I'm concerned that if he is the Nominee Florida Republicans & Independents will enthusiastically flock to the polls to help elect a former Governor from their State to be President.
For example in 2008 President Obama won the state of Indiana, a first for a Democrat to win that state in over 50 years. Many Political Scientist suggested that the reason Indiana went for Obama was because he was from their neighboring state of Illinois.
My point being that a candidate has a huge advantage in winning the state he or she is from. While Florida has went blue the last two Presidential Elections, both were by a slim margin, especially 2012, so my fear is that if Jeb is the Nominee, Florida's Electoral Votes will go to the Republicans.
realFedUp
(25,053 posts)N/t
Yorktown
(2,884 posts)But you should pray I'm wrong.
Because, if Cruz is the Republican nominee, the Democartic nominee will win any day.
Because of all the batshit crazy stuff Cruz is saying to win the Evangelical/Baptist vote.
Tresalisa
(549 posts)people I know excited, but I don't know if he has what it takes to get the nomination. From what I've read, he seems quite polarizing and even if some love, love, love him, lots of people just don't like him. I think it'll be Jeb Bush who'll be running, and he'll be defeated by Hillary. Jeb will have the money and the support of the GOP establishment, which is important.
Darb
(2,807 posts)He's Canadian.
Mz Pip
(27,453 posts)and that vote will be split. Besides that, he's just not likeable, even within his own party.
I suspect Jeb will get the nomination.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)The money and power will all be behind Jeb. The nominees are going to be Clinton and Bush.