The G.O.P. Presidential Field Looks Chaotic. It’s Not.

The 2016 Republican candidates can already be sorted into roles that tell us a lot about their chances of winning the nomination.

The Republican primary battle has been called a wide-open contest — the “deepest” and “strongest” field in many cycles. It is full of the party’s rising stars and hopefuls, like Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Bobby Jindal, alongside the most formidable name in Republican politics: Bush.

But the campaign is not nearly as open as it looks. Many of the candidates who have received the most news media attention have little or no chance of winning the nomination. Instead, two figures — Jeb Bush and Mr. Walker — have quickly moved to the head of the pack. Perhaps only Mr. Rubio has a good chance to join them at the top. . .

This article is a guide to the roles that this year’s candidates have already assumed. Based on the levels of elite support and broad acceptability, we place the candidates into three categories — Invisible Primary Leaders, Mainstream Options and Factional Favorites — and explain how they align with historical comparisons.

If you keep this framework in mind over the next year, it’ll be easier to make sense of the Republican campaigns.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/10/upshot/-2015-04-10-2016-elections-upshot-the-gop-presidential-field-looks-chaotic-its-nothtml.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news