Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 02:01 PM Apr 2015

2014/2016 US Senate Election. Which US Senate seat in 2014 was the Democrats 50th seat and

Which US Senate Seat in 2016 is going to be the Democrats 50th seat?
2014 US Senate Election- in a neutral year- Democrats would have won- AK(Begich-D),CO(Udall-D)and NC(Hagan-D)-49D plus needed they needed to win either IA(Braley-D)who lost in 2014 by a wider margin than expected or help either Nunn(D-GA) or Landrieu(D-LA) in the December runoff.
2016 US Senate Election- Democrats are going to win all of the Democratic held US Senate seats up for grabs in 2016 including NV(Cortez-Masto-D),CO(Bennet-D),and NJ-Special(assuming Menendez-D resigns)-plus they are likely to pick up IL(Duckworth-D) and WI(Feingold-D) due to the Democratic Presidential nominee's coattails-48D- The Democrats will need to win FL(Murphy-D) and OH(Strickland-D) or NH(Hassan-D) and PA(Sestak-D).

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
2014/2016 US Senate Election. Which US Senate seat in 2014 was the Democrats 50th seat and (Original Post) NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 OP
I think we can do it, but it won't be a cake walk yeoman6987 Apr 2015 #1
Regarding 2018- the Democratic held US Senate seats that are in danger are. NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #4
I Will Be Working For Strickland In Ohio... Corey_Baker08 Apr 2015 #2
Regarding the 2016 US Senate Election cycle- which US Senate Race will be in Macaca or L.R category? NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #6
(D) Wyden and his TPP FAST-TRACK Support fredamae Apr 2015 #3
Which Republican from OR is going to challenge and unseat Wyden-D? NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #5
I haven't heard yet..... fredamae Apr 2015 #7
Monica Wehby lost to first term Democratic US Senator Jeff Merkley in 2014(Republican Wave election) NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #8
A) Until we know If and Who fredamae Apr 2015 #9
Wyden being vulnerable in the Democratic Primary does not make the OR US Senate Seat vulnerable in NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #10
You are correct fredamae Apr 2015 #11
I'd like to know exactly where you are getting the information about Wyden being for the TPP davidpdx Apr 2015 #13
Seriously? fredamae Apr 2015 #14
I live outside the US, which is why I'm surpised davidpdx Apr 2015 #16
Ahhhh.... fredamae Apr 2015 #17
I emailed his office this morning davidpdx Apr 2015 #18
Democrats have an easier time regaining control of the US Senate in 2016. NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #12
2016 US Senate Election. Democrats guide to a majority. NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #15
2016 US Senate Election.- Democratic Victories NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #19
 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
1. I think we can do it, but it won't be a cake walk
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 02:06 PM
Apr 2015

I know some don't agree but having Hillary will make our hopes of getting the Senate back easier. We have a tough walk of keeping the senate in 2018 so the more seats we get the better. It has been said that the Senate could go back and forth for a while.

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
4. Regarding 2018- the Democratic held US Senate seats that are in danger are.
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 02:35 PM
Apr 2015

1)FL(Nelson-D)vs Scott-R
2)IN(Donnelly-D)
3)ME(King-I)-expect a 3way race between King-I vs LePage-R and more credible Democratic challenger.
4)MO(McCaskill-D)
5)MT(Tester-D)
6)NM(Heinrich-D) vs Martinez-R
7)ND(Heitkamp-D)
8)OH(Brown-D) vs Kasich-R
9)WI(Baldwin-D) vs Walker-R

Corey_Baker08

(2,157 posts)
2. I Will Be Working For Strickland In Ohio...
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 02:06 PM
Apr 2015

early polls already have us up +9. Rob Portman has lost alot of Republican support and more importantly the support of wealthy donors since his son came out as gay and Senator Portman stood by his son and changed his position on gay marriage and equal rights for the LGBT community.

While The Strickland campaign will not bring this personal issue up I'm sure the tea party has a primary challenger waiting...

Anyways, Lets Get To Work & Take Back The US Senate!

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
6. Regarding the 2016 US Senate Election cycle- which US Senate Race will be in Macaca or L.R category?
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 02:57 PM
Apr 2015

Democrats holds onto CO(Bennet-D) and NV(Cortez Masto-D) by a narrow to high single digit margin. 46D
Democrats pick up IL(Duckworth-D),WI(Feingold-D) and OH(Strickland-D) by a narrow to high single digit margin. 49D
Democrats will need to win FL(Republican nominee make a gaffe- allowing Democrats to regain control of the US Senate.

fredamae

(4,458 posts)
3. (D) Wyden and his TPP FAST-TRACK Support
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 02:15 PM
Apr 2015

has Already endangered his re-election.

Don't under-estimate the anger of the Oregon Electorate.

We have to try to keep the ones (even the corporatists) that we have...Plus pick up several seats. If "small d" Democrats don't pull their heads out....they risk making 2010/12/14 look like a "cake-walk", imo

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
5. Which Republican from OR is going to challenge and unseat Wyden-D?
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 02:43 PM
Apr 2015

The only top tier Republican US Senate nominee in OR are Greg Walden or Gordon Smith. It is highly unlikely that either those 2 Republicans are going to unseat Wyden-D in the November 2016 General Election.

fredamae

(4,458 posts)
7. I haven't heard yet.....
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 03:04 PM
Apr 2015

For all I know monica will be back.

I'm out recruiting for dems, I know that. I've voted for wyden in every election since 1996.

He's a Power House in the whole TPP Fast Track debate and last I heard he's SUPPORTING it and may be the deciding vote. IF he "goes there" with an Oregon electorate that is already pissed at him for even considering it, he's in real trouble. The WFP has Promised a primary and I will vote for that person. I'm as over him as he is over doing whats Right for Oregon......
PLUS He hid from activists during a recent fundraiser. Does that sound like a "solid Democrat" to you?
Idgara who the GOP hopefuls are at this juncture.

All I know for certain is; I'm sure as hell Not going to support him if he votes in favor of fast track regardless who the gop tosses out. If they (gop) "smell blood" over this once solid dem seat.....who knows who they'll trot out. Maybe Dudely will move back to OR or arise from beneath his rock...I'm sure the kochs/rove are watching this close...they want to turn Oregon Red Really, really bad.

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
8. Monica Wehby lost to first term Democratic US Senator Jeff Merkley in 2014(Republican Wave election)
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 03:13 PM
Apr 2015

by a 56-37 percent margin. Do you think that in 2016- Democratic voter turnout is likely to be higher than it was in 2014- Wehby is going to unseat Wyden-D. Wyden-D may be a bad politician but he is unlikely to lose if Republicans don't have credible candidate. Wyden-D could win with less than 55 percent of the popular vote but he still is going win. ie Warner(VA)in 2014 or Casey(PA)in 2012.

fredamae

(4,458 posts)
9. A) Until we know If and Who
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 03:26 PM
Apr 2015

the GOP might run.......it's a moot issue.

B)Wyden is Already in trouble. wyden needs to worry about a Dem Primary in May of 2016....almost 13 months from now.
I have zero interest in OR GOP candidates at this point and remain focused on getting Wyden unseated by a better Democrat!

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
10. Wyden being vulnerable in the Democratic Primary does not make the OR US Senate Seat vulnerable in
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 03:49 PM
Apr 2015

the November 2016 General Election.
Scenario 1- Wyden-D narrowly loses in the May 2016 Democratic Primary, he decides to run as an Independent- In a three way race between Wyden-I,Wehby-R and the Likely Democratic nominee Wyden-I appeals to Independents and Moderate to Conservative Democratic voters. Wehby-R appeals to Republican voters. and the likely Democratic nominee will appeal to Liberal Democratic voters. Wyden-I wins a three way race with 40 percent of the popular vote. Wyden-I decides to caucus with the Democrats.
Scenario 2- Wyden-D narrowly wins the May 2016 Democratic Primary- Wyden-D wins the November General Election by a high single to low double digit margin.

fredamae

(4,458 posts)
11. You are correct
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 04:09 PM
Apr 2015

I have not been approaching this from the standpoint of Senate Dems losing this seat. While I (at this point) agree with your scenario....I do focus upon the senior Dem from Oregon losing His seat to another Dem.
I am not worried about a repub winning.....tho as crazy as politics are these days..anything could happen.

I stand corrected.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
13. I'd like to know exactly where you are getting the information about Wyden being for the TPP
Tue Apr 14, 2015, 07:09 AM
Apr 2015

I am an Oregonian and have voted for Wyden in every election he was on he ballot since 1992.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
16. I live outside the US, which is why I'm surpised
Wed Apr 15, 2015, 02:28 AM
Apr 2015

After I posted I found the one on Blue Oregon (which I used to read and comment on often years ago). I'm a member of Moveon, so I'm surprised there wasn't an email about that (or I could have missed it). Those are the only ways I would have seen it.

I hope Wyden doesn't cut a deal because I agree the TPP is bad. South Korea (where I live) has said initially they won't join, but may in the future. While it sounds a little fucked up, one of my reasons for being against the TPP is that it would mean stronger copyright enforcement and I could pretty much forget seeing anything on TV in the US.

fredamae

(4,458 posts)
17. Ahhhh....
Wed Apr 15, 2015, 12:27 PM
Apr 2015

Wyden has surprised and disappointed quite a lot of us, frankly.

EDIT:
I just now an listening to Thom Hartmann and Sen Sherrod Brown and Thom are discussing the Hatch/Wyden Fast Track Sponsorship...
These two want to run it thru the cmte...this week...fast, silent...deadly to Americans.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
18. I emailed his office this morning
Thu Apr 16, 2015, 04:53 AM
Apr 2015

I tried calling on Skype, but after a couple of attempts I gave up.

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
12. Democrats have an easier time regaining control of the US Senate in 2016.
Mon Apr 13, 2015, 05:08 PM
Apr 2015

Democratic Victories by a single digit margin.
Democratic Hold CO and NV
Democratic Gain FL,IL,OH,and WI
Potential Democratic Gain- AZ and NH.

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
15. 2016 US Senate Election. Democrats guide to a majority.
Tue Apr 14, 2015, 02:28 PM
Apr 2015

Scenario 1- Democrats narrowly loses both CO and NV.
Democrats pick up IL,WI,OH,FL,NH,and PA.
Scenario 2- Democrats narrowly loses either CO or NV.
Democrats pick up IL,WI,OH,FL,and NH.
Scenario 3- Democrats narrowly wins both CO and NV
Democrats pick up IL,WI,OH,and FL.

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)
19. 2016 US Senate Election.- Democratic Victories
Thu Apr 16, 2015, 09:15 PM
Apr 2015

37)HI-Schatz-D
38)VT-Leahy-D
39)NY-Schumer-D
40)MD-Van Hollen/Edwards-D
41)CT-Blumenthal-D
42)OR-Wyden-D
43)CA-Harris-D
44)WA-Murray-D
45)WI-Feingold-D
46)IL-Duckworth-D
47)CO-Bennet-D
48)OH-Strickland-D
49)NV-Cortez Masto-D
50)FL-Murphy-D
51)NH-Hassan-D

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»2014/2016 US Senate Elect...