2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum2014/2016 US Senate Election. Which US Senate seat in 2014 was the Democrats 50th seat and
Which US Senate Seat in 2016 is going to be the Democrats 50th seat?
2014 US Senate Election- in a neutral year- Democrats would have won- AK(Begich-D),CO(Udall-D)and NC(Hagan-D)-49D plus needed they needed to win either IA(Braley-D)who lost in 2014 by a wider margin than expected or help either Nunn(D-GA) or Landrieu(D-LA) in the December runoff.
2016 US Senate Election- Democrats are going to win all of the Democratic held US Senate seats up for grabs in 2016 including NV(Cortez-Masto-D),CO(Bennet-D),and NJ-Special(assuming Menendez-D resigns)-plus they are likely to pick up IL(Duckworth-D) and WI(Feingold-D) due to the Democratic Presidential nominee's coattails-48D- The Democrats will need to win FL(Murphy-D) and OH(Strickland-D) or NH(Hassan-D) and PA(Sestak-D).
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)I know some don't agree but having Hillary will make our hopes of getting the Senate back easier. We have a tough walk of keeping the senate in 2018 so the more seats we get the better. It has been said that the Senate could go back and forth for a while.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)1)FL(Nelson-D)vs Scott-R
2)IN(Donnelly-D)
3)ME(King-I)-expect a 3way race between King-I vs LePage-R and more credible Democratic challenger.
4)MO(McCaskill-D)
5)MT(Tester-D)
6)NM(Heinrich-D) vs Martinez-R
7)ND(Heitkamp-D)
8)OH(Brown-D) vs Kasich-R
9)WI(Baldwin-D) vs Walker-R
Corey_Baker08
(2,157 posts)early polls already have us up +9. Rob Portman has lost alot of Republican support and more importantly the support of wealthy donors since his son came out as gay and Senator Portman stood by his son and changed his position on gay marriage and equal rights for the LGBT community.
While The Strickland campaign will not bring this personal issue up I'm sure the tea party has a primary challenger waiting...
Anyways, Lets Get To Work & Take Back The US Senate!
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)Democrats holds onto CO(Bennet-D) and NV(Cortez Masto-D) by a narrow to high single digit margin. 46D
Democrats pick up IL(Duckworth-D),WI(Feingold-D) and OH(Strickland-D) by a narrow to high single digit margin. 49D
Democrats will need to win FL(Republican nominee make a gaffe- allowing Democrats to regain control of the US Senate.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)has Already endangered his re-election.
Don't under-estimate the anger of the Oregon Electorate.
We have to try to keep the ones (even the corporatists) that we have...Plus pick up several seats. If "small d" Democrats don't pull their heads out....they risk making 2010/12/14 look like a "cake-walk", imo
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)The only top tier Republican US Senate nominee in OR are Greg Walden or Gordon Smith. It is highly unlikely that either those 2 Republicans are going to unseat Wyden-D in the November 2016 General Election.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)For all I know monica will be back.
I'm out recruiting for dems, I know that. I've voted for wyden in every election since 1996.
He's a Power House in the whole TPP Fast Track debate and last I heard he's SUPPORTING it and may be the deciding vote. IF he "goes there" with an Oregon electorate that is already pissed at him for even considering it, he's in real trouble. The WFP has Promised a primary and I will vote for that person. I'm as over him as he is over doing whats Right for Oregon......
PLUS He hid from activists during a recent fundraiser. Does that sound like a "solid Democrat" to you?
Idgara who the GOP hopefuls are at this juncture.
All I know for certain is; I'm sure as hell Not going to support him if he votes in favor of fast track regardless who the gop tosses out. If they (gop) "smell blood" over this once solid dem seat.....who knows who they'll trot out. Maybe Dudely will move back to OR or arise from beneath his rock...I'm sure the kochs/rove are watching this close...they want to turn Oregon Red Really, really bad.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)by a 56-37 percent margin. Do you think that in 2016- Democratic voter turnout is likely to be higher than it was in 2014- Wehby is going to unseat Wyden-D. Wyden-D may be a bad politician but he is unlikely to lose if Republicans don't have credible candidate. Wyden-D could win with less than 55 percent of the popular vote but he still is going win. ie Warner(VA)in 2014 or Casey(PA)in 2012.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)the GOP might run.......it's a moot issue.
B)Wyden is Already in trouble. wyden needs to worry about a Dem Primary in May of 2016....almost 13 months from now.
I have zero interest in OR GOP candidates at this point and remain focused on getting Wyden unseated by a better Democrat!
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)the November 2016 General Election.
Scenario 1- Wyden-D narrowly loses in the May 2016 Democratic Primary, he decides to run as an Independent- In a three way race between Wyden-I,Wehby-R and the Likely Democratic nominee Wyden-I appeals to Independents and Moderate to Conservative Democratic voters. Wehby-R appeals to Republican voters. and the likely Democratic nominee will appeal to Liberal Democratic voters. Wyden-I wins a three way race with 40 percent of the popular vote. Wyden-I decides to caucus with the Democrats.
Scenario 2- Wyden-D narrowly wins the May 2016 Democratic Primary- Wyden-D wins the November General Election by a high single to low double digit margin.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)I have not been approaching this from the standpoint of Senate Dems losing this seat. While I (at this point) agree with your scenario....I do focus upon the senior Dem from Oregon losing His seat to another Dem.
I am not worried about a repub winning.....tho as crazy as politics are these days..anything could happen.
I stand corrected.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I am an Oregonian and have voted for Wyden in every election he was on he ballot since 1992.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)https://www.popularresistance.org/wyden-if-you-support-fasttrack-your-career-is-toast/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/19/ron-wyden-fast-track-trade-deal_n_6714748.html
http://www.blueoregon.com/2015/01/where-ron-wyden-fast-track-and-tpp/
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/senate-finance-committee/fast-track-can-happen-but-will-wyden-go-along-20150325
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/237020-left-threatens-to-oust-key-dem-over-trade
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/oregonians_mad_as_hell_about_trade_deals_that_threaten_food_supply_20150327
http://www.citizenstrade.org/ctc/oregon/2015/02/23/senator-wyden-and-fast-track/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/gaius-publius-ron-wyden-progressives-tpp.html
Need more?
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)After I posted I found the one on Blue Oregon (which I used to read and comment on often years ago). I'm a member of Moveon, so I'm surprised there wasn't an email about that (or I could have missed it). Those are the only ways I would have seen it.
I hope Wyden doesn't cut a deal because I agree the TPP is bad. South Korea (where I live) has said initially they won't join, but may in the future. While it sounds a little fucked up, one of my reasons for being against the TPP is that it would mean stronger copyright enforcement and I could pretty much forget seeing anything on TV in the US.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)Wyden has surprised and disappointed quite a lot of us, frankly.
EDIT:
I just now an listening to Thom Hartmann and Sen Sherrod Brown and Thom are discussing the Hatch/Wyden Fast Track Sponsorship...
These two want to run it thru the cmte...this week...fast, silent...deadly to Americans.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I tried calling on Skype, but after a couple of attempts I gave up.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)Democratic Victories by a single digit margin.
Democratic Hold CO and NV
Democratic Gain FL,IL,OH,and WI
Potential Democratic Gain- AZ and NH.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)Scenario 1- Democrats narrowly loses both CO and NV.
Democrats pick up IL,WI,OH,FL,NH,and PA.
Scenario 2- Democrats narrowly loses either CO or NV.
Democrats pick up IL,WI,OH,FL,and NH.
Scenario 3- Democrats narrowly wins both CO and NV
Democrats pick up IL,WI,OH,and FL.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)37)HI-Schatz-D
38)VT-Leahy-D
39)NY-Schumer-D
40)MD-Van Hollen/Edwards-D
41)CT-Blumenthal-D
42)OR-Wyden-D
43)CA-Harris-D
44)WA-Murray-D
45)WI-Feingold-D
46)IL-Duckworth-D
47)CO-Bennet-D
48)OH-Strickland-D
49)NV-Cortez Masto-D
50)FL-Murphy-D
51)NH-Hassan-D