Why You'll Like Clinton, Eventually

Jun 4, 2015 10:11 AM EDT
By Jonathan Bernstein

This Candidate, you're going to believe, can really connect with the American people. He/she is a new kind of [Democrat/Republican]. This Candidate’s qualifications for the presidency aren't just impressive. It's uncanny how well This Candidate’s skills and history seem exactly made for the challenges the U.S. faces in 2016. Most politicians just spout cliches, you'll think, but This Candidate talks with, not at, us.

Oh, and on a personal level: What about that heartbreaking anecdote about This Candidate’s family history? Why didn’t This Candidate talk more about the personal stuff earlier? People would have realized then just how special he/she is. And what a refreshing collection of technocrats, oddballs and respected veterans are running This Candidate’s campaign!

Some things in elections are difficult to predict, but the cycle of enthusiasm for presidential nominees isn't one of them. It's real, foreseeable and practically irresistible. As John Sides said on Wednesday in the Washington Post, “campaigns almost always rally each party’s voters behind their nominee.” This is in the context of what he predicts will be a temporary (and modest) decline in Hillary Clinton’s polling numbers among Democrats. But the ebb-and-flow pattern is even more relevant to the generally dismal polling numbers the Republican candidates have compiled in this presidential cycle.

The way we feel about politicians is affected by context. A good example is to look back at John Kerry’s favorable/unfavorable ratings (here from Gallup) over time. Back before 2004, the year of his first presidential campaign, Kerry was mostly unknown, but those who knew him liked him. He has a rating of 30 percent favorable and 9 percent unfavorable.

As his campaign for the Democratic nomination began, his unfavorability spiked (with both Republicans and Howard Dean supporters learning who he was probably and not liking him), leaving him with a rating of 31 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable.

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http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-04/why-you-ll-like-clinton-eventually