The primaries and general are largely a referendum on BHO as HRC is implicitly running for his third term.

It is a great time to be a liberal and unrepentant Obama supporter.

In Obama I trust.

I am good with that like never before.

The quality of all the candidates the Democratic Party has over the Republican Cult is immense.

still on supporting him as he does that...then hand the reigns over for some mopping up of the battlefield.

Next up, international nuclear peace accords - yes, in the plural - international climate change accord, international free and fair trade agreements....just for Enders.

If Sanders polled this well against all rivals, I would sing praises about him and support him or anyone not Clinton...why do folks not get that?

Limbaugh: "I tell people don't kill all the liberals, leave enough around so we can have two on every campus; living fossils, so we will never forget what these people stood for."

I am deeply troubled that any of the GOP is getting over 20% of the vote. It's closer than it should be.

Was there a cumulative total, such as Hillary + Bernie + Webb + O'Malley? Are the GOP totals interchangeable?

I'm confused, but these are GE polls. I'm just over the GOP numbers there. Makes it hard to think straight. Ouch!

Hillary squeaks by 59-34. That's a relief.

But if I could make him the GOP nominee, I would.

could be anything.

when he wrecks all chances of any GOP candidate being elected? LOL!

His ego is going to push him to go rogue. And that's a good thing.

fuck are these Americans who support that excrement? Jesus H. Christ, makes me despair, it really does.

Party loyalty being what it is, sir, David Sweat could run for pres with a (R) after his name and garner 41% of the vote.

[url=http://www.servimg.com/view/11715825/1540][img][/img][/url]

Look at the consistency of Clinton + Biden over time. Remarkable.

Has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee in the general election next November
Registered
All voters
Clinton 72% 74%
Biden 16% 15%
Sanders 2% 2%
Chafee 1% 1%
O'Malley 1% 1%
Webb 1% 1%
Someone else (vol.) 1% 1%
None/No one 2% 2%
No opinion 3% 3%

Would you be happier if our presumptive nominee was trailing their presumptive nominees by 13-25 points?

about.

Thank you.

We know that Hillary is doing quite well in a veritable potpourri of polls, except the FOX one, where she is merely doing okay. Perhaps that is the "unreliable polls" Mr. Mook is alluding to.

Thank you.

is consistency. This poll shows that pretty clearly. In all polls in which he is included, Biden polls higher than Sanders. Sanders consistently falls somewhere between 12-16%, and he doesn't seem to be breaking out of that. And Hillary consistently leads all other Democrats and wipes the floor with all Republican contenders.

You may not like this poll, but that doesn'affect its reliability. The numbers are looking good for a huge Democratic win next year.

a lot of work needs to be done. yet, Hillary is doing well but as the primaries progress-others Dems will cut into the numbers--which is to be expected IMHO.

I try not to take too much stock in these early polls.

I suspect that comment was directed towards polls that appear to be outliers. As with all polls, you asses their reliability in the aggregate of data, and by the past performance of the pollster.

According to Fivethirtyeight, CNN-ORC polls are rated at A-, making them one of the better pollsters. You can check out their ratings here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

The campaign manager's comment is correct however. If you check out that page, there are a lot of really crappy pollsters there.

Unless you have some reason to indicate this isn't a reliable poll, I would say it should be considered reliable based on the aggregate of data and the pollsters past performance.

Sorry if that conflicts with your snarky narrative.

Is the earth warming because of humans? We don't know!

I mean, we have models that have proven reasonably reliable saying it is, but heck, we just don't know!

Seriously?

garbage in, garbage out.

I presume that "in the computer industry" you stick with proven effective techniques?

... it appears to be. It's certainly not an outlier.

and a normally reliable pollster blew it. IS that what you want to hang your position on?

It's a poll, not an election result. So yeah, it can be wrong. But is that the empirical approach you really want to embrace?

Next thing you know, you'll be quoting unskewedpolls.com

The Law Of Large Numbers suggests if you aggregate all the polls, "good" and "bad" you should get a reliable result.

that staffer said what he said so Hillary's supporters don't get complacent and actually get out there and vote? Because, to me, you sound like all those "unskewed polls" people that we all laughed at in 2012. Some polls are good, some are not.

No - they were right on in 2012.

Using that method, Nate Sliver and many other political scientists/social scientists/statisticians nailed the 2012 presidential election, ergo:

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.

-John Adams

I empathize with you though... I can see how emotionally you are invested in all or most of the published polls being wrong. If I was in your shoes I would be emotionally invested in their all being wrong too, lol.

This ain't rocket science. If a firm has a history of doing well, you can probably rely on them. When you combine their results with other successful firms, the odds go up.

You are trying awful hard to ignore basic statistics.

This ain't rocket science.

eom

Overall, is about an aggregate of data. That will TEND to be more accurate.

I said it should be read in context of other polls. It appears to be broadly consistent with a lot of polls (national polls that is), so I would say it probably IS pretty reliable as a snapshot.

Are you gonna play ostrich and ignore data? Fine. Go ahead. But I'll take the rational approach, that's proven pretty damn effective over the years.

sand and completely ignore all the polls. That way you can believe Bernie has a chance to not only beat Hillary (all evidence to the contrary) and win the general (all evidence to the contrary). Frankly, I think you sound like a child with this poll nonsense but whatever.

The CNN Poll included JB and it was HRC 58% JB 17% and BS 15%.


It doesn't take a PhD in Political Science from Harvard to divine JB's impact on the race.

I think his support ceiling is between 20-30%, based on what I've seen so far. But there are factors that can affect that, of course.

For the record, I am an HRC supporter.

The data suggests that his ceiling is closer to 20% than 30% but we will see in the fullness of time.

I revealed my support since I am in favor of transparency, even if I think I am capable of analyzing the data without bias toward my chosen candidate.

As I often say to friends. "I am engineer. A poorly designed plane won't fly safely just because I want it too. The numbers have to work."

One of the first things you are taught in social science research is the difference between the empirical and the normative, the "is" versus "ought to be".

I was looking at the internals... I wish they would have broken down the categories into whites, African americans, Latinos, Asians, et cetera instead of white and non-white. That would be more instructive.

I did notice that while Sanders trails in all demographics he performs best in the >$50,000.00 demographic as I expected. Chris Hayes calls it the "revolt of the upper middle class."

I would add that 50K doesn't go as far as it used to, especially in a big city.

There is sea change happening in America, but remember it took 70 years for the French Revolution to shake out....the American Revolution began with civil rights in the 1950's...the timing is about right.

his twisted morally bankrupt dumb brother who should be on trial for war crimes.

Huge results, obviously subject to change.

The Bernie surge seems to have arrested some. He may be approaching a support ceiling, but we'll have to see. It is interesting to me that in this poll he lags behind Biden, who hasn't declared, and the "first choice/second choice" don't look great for him.

He is drawing good crowds, though, so we'll have to see if he manages a slow build of support.

Has he declared?

And why was Clinton the only "vs" candidate that they queried?
This looks like an agenda driven poll.

Some of it might be a function of questionnaire length and how long you can keep folks on the phone.

Until he says he's NOT running, I think it's fair to include him. But he should decide soon. No sense in muddling the picture.

I love Joe but it's probably too late, especially after he told his contributors they were free to back HRC.

The only way Joe gets in is if HRC has a health problem, god forbid.

He may be holding the door open for some personal reason. He may be holding it open against a disastrous HRC rollout. But she''s doing great so far, IMO. I think I heard him say he would decide by August. I wish he would do it before then, but we can live with that for another 5-6 weeks.

Against their candidates. They would love to have another DNC candidate running in the general.

then we have our candidate folks.

Very sweet.

Go Hillary!