He's even further to the right than she is.

....he is WAAAAY more in line with Hillary than he is with Sanders. Not even close.

And I still support Bernie.

... than Biden felt about it.

It has been a big factor for the credit card companies and other parts of corporate America profiteering off of us over the last decade.

Ever wonder why credit card interest rates are SO much higher than the prime rate? We should be asking Biden that question when he campaigns to us.

O'Malley might lose some too.

supporters as Bernie anyway. Biden, I have no idea what he's doing. He's a relative long-shot instead of the expected heir to the throne as VP, which doesn't bode well for him.

A good percentage of Sanders' supporters are from that demographic.

(He thinks so, not me).

In addition, Webb appeals to people who are not interested by climate change, women issues, minority issues, ... Not sure this is either Sanders or Hillary's crowd.

Hillary may not want to 'dirty' her rep and go down the dirty road but Web and others probably will. Especially if they are aiming for a VP spot from her. Either way I doubt they'll wont hurt Bernie support base much if any.

.......

And vice-versa if and when they drop out. If they drop out Hillary will gain votes, as long as they are in they will take some Hillary support away.

Webb only takes voters away from Hillary you know those " hard work white voters"she said Obama couldn't win

Saying it does not make it true.

not voters " Obama support with among hard working , white Americans is weakening again .... and she cotinues to say she has a border base to build a winning coalition to - HRC 2008
[link:

HRC said she had a board coalition and white hard working Americans supported her over Obama

yet she still lost the nomination Amazing

nice coded langue too

I see two arguments

I always look to Hillary's high negatives...Webb & Biden would certainly pull the 'anyone but Hillary' voters away from Sanders, especially if they are conservative...

On the other hand, both Biden and Webb are to the right of Sanders and would not threaten his progressive his base....

Her favorability among Democrats hovers in the eighties.

That's some impressive sample sizes for a nation wide poll there. It's obviously all over, Bernie should just bow out! Those 247 people trump the 10k that Bernie just drew in one city in one state.

And those numbers are consistent with other polls... According to The Law Of Large Numbers the larger the sample the more robust the results...


If you have data that suggests Secretary of State Clinton is unpopular with Democrats I am sure you will post it.

It has Hillary and Bernie running equal on net favorability rating.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/06/25/new-hampshire-poll-shows-bernie-sanders-in-dead-heat-with-hillary-clinton/?_r=0



When did I say she was unpopular with Democrats? The simple fact is she's got no where to go but down in the polls. The New Hampshire poll is showing that. In fact they have polling over time listed going back to February of 13. Since that time her favorability has fallen 13% and her unfavorability has risen 12%, with most of that coming in the past two months (amazing what some competition does).

I stated the 92% polling wasn't realistic and you asked for data backing that claim up (knowing there's little up to date polling to draw from). So I show you the NH poll. Even taking into account it is almost entirely White state, my statement still holds. White people make up greater than 50% of the population nationally, and she's polling 74% with them according to the poll I provided (by your homogeneous claim). Even if 100% of everyone else goes for her (which is on you to prove with data), she still can't achieve 92% according to the data. Consider the 92% disproven (or at least as disproven as can be done with limited polling).


92% doesn't even pass the smell test. As you stated, the US is a heterogeneous nation. Greater than 9 out of 10 Democrats across the country hardly ever agree on any politician, especially ones who are as polarizing as Hillary or Bernie. Forget the data for a moment. Look at DU, look at millions on social media going for Bernie, talk to people. As some point the sheer volume of anecdotal evidence has to override a poll of 247 people. Or are you so data driven that you can't trust your own lying eyes? (that's a phrase, I'm not calling you a liar)


Onto the more general race discussion. Bernie has at least as good of a voting record as Hillary does with both Blacks and Hispanics. There's no reason to believe he will be wholly rejected by either come election. What's more realistic is their vote will split, just like the white vote will. Sometimes an American is just an American and a Democrat is just a Democrat.


Now there's one reason why the NH poll is a better predictor of future polling than the national poll. In polling there's something that trumps race and all other factors, and that is name recognition. People simple do not state they will vote for people they don't know. And unlike popularity, people's knowledge of candidates only goes up not down. Bernie is better known in New Hampshire than he is nationally. So the NH poll is a better predictor of what is going to happen once he becomes better known nationally.


The simple fact is unless his message is rejected (and it hasn't been anywhere he's gone yet), his numbers are going to rise in all polls. The only place for those numbers to realistically come from are Hillary, so she's going to drop. The only question is will she retain enough of those currently gaudy numbers to hold on once the actual voting comes around. We'll just have to wait and see.

The 92 % figure isn't actually Democrats who have a favorable opinion of her. It's Democrats who indicate they would vote for her if she was our nominee which is roughly in line with the support Barack Obama received in his two national campaigns. Her favorability ratings among Democrats hovers in the upper 70s and low 80s in nat'l polling...

Let me preface my remarks by saying I am aware of the difference between many, most, and all and Hillary Clinton is popular among many African Americans, Latinos, Asians and glbtq persons. She has been assiduously courting them for forty years, since her and Bill were McGovern organizers in south Texas. Bonds like that can not be overturned overnight and those bonds will prove to be dispositive in the campaign.


Yes I am data driven but I don't ignore anecdotal evidence or the proverbial eye test. Here in heterogeneous Los Angeles I don't see the groundswell of support for Senator Sanders. Please feel free to bookmark this post...If Senator Sanders is still in the race come the CA primary he will not break 25% in Los Angeles county.


BTW, I am enjoying our exchange and hope you are enjoying the holiday.

I love debating facts, stats, and especially logic. It's when people get into emotional debates that I want to go running for the hills.


One thing to consider is that while 92% polled may say they're amenable to voting for her, that doesn't mean 92% will (especially in the primaries). If she really were 5 times ahead of Bernie as that poll indicates then I'd expect her to be drawing crowds 5 times his size. When in reality they're running about even there. What that says to me is that Hillary has a small percentage who are strongly in favor of her, Bernie has a small percentage who are strongly in favor of him, and the vast majority are not enthusiastically locked into any candidate (they probably don't care because it's too early), they simply lean Hillary.


So why do they lean Hillary? Easy, she has the name recognition being a former first lady and secretary of state who was in the news regularly. When all else fails people go with who they know. The polls will normalize once other candidates are better known. It's simply too early to take anything as fact yet.


Have a happy 4th.

It's not all a conspiracy, and why shouldn't Biden run? Polling shows his votes come mostly from Hillary so him running only hurts her.

Jim Webb's one percent support will likely come out of HRC's hide.

Bernie was going to be serious.

I just heard someone on MSNBC say that Webb was getting i to pull Hillary back to the right. Don't know if that's true or not, but I hope it doesn't work.

Hillary when he eventually drops out, and whatever supporters he has attracted will be encouraged to support Hillary. I think the right wing of the party is starting to take Bernie seriously and is flailing.

I think Joe and Hillary are both on team Status Quo, and I don't think he would be running if Hillary were truly inevitable.

That means more Americans are working harder for a smaller share of the overall profits. That's one of the facts that is helping Sanders.

She does better with Biden out of the race

I haven't been at the 'puter today.

There are probably more coming. What about Nancy Pelosi?

I mean it's an election, not a coronation. Bernie's going to have to earn that second place.

Seriously, why does everything have to be a grand conspiracy?

Those that don't care for Hillary are more apt to hang behind a Biden who has name recognition versus a Bernie that is trying to build name recognition. If Biden sops off some votes for Bernie and Bernie falls further behind in the polls - people would be more apt to discount Bernie.

Then at a strategic point - Biden drops out of the race and recommends that people line up behind Hillary and that's all she wrote.

No need for a grand conspiracy - just some strategic moves on the part of the corporate Dems and the 1%'ers.

That's my theory and I'm sticking to it.

who hasn't actually done much to even begin to start a potential campaign and just buried his son is so bored or maybe hard off for cash or something, that he would participate in something like you laid out?

And if so, shouldn't he actually you know enter the race?

Your theory is nothing but a bad joke.

I think Biden may jump in because he recognizes Hillary is vulnerable. He offers an alternative to her with high name recognition.

She will either sink or swim on her own merit. I think that is how she wants it.

Webb has been planning this for at least a year - and he does nothing to Sander's campaign. These are Manchin voters he's after.