2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI Think We are going to win the WI Recall Election
I'm cautiously optimistic. I've been feeling increasingly better the last week and now this weekend. Going out and knocking on doors (Saturday) and calling people for GOTV (Sunday)--I feel that our side is really motivated and we are going to have a powerful turnout and that due to that turnout we will recall Scott Walker.
As I've stated before we have put a lot of time and effort in contacting and talking to (usually) Democratic voters who for some reason decided not to vote in 2010. My calls today were very positive with these people. If we can get these voters who sat our the last election in significant numbers (and turnout is projected to be high--higher than 2010) then I think we will win.
Among the reasons why I think Barrett has turned the corner is there has been much talk about Barrett's debate performances, especially the last debate on Friday. I think the ethical charges are finally beginning to take a toll on Walker. And, this is significant, we have been able to pretty much match Walker in the final weekend on the airwaves. The message is taking hold. Not only that but our vast army of volunteers from all types of organizations including OFA & DFA are not bringing hundreds, but thousands of volunteers out to get people to the polls.
Our latest internal poll has the contest a dead heat--so it will definitely come down to GOTV.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)I have to say I would love to see the face of those idiots on foxnews when Barrett wins.
meow2u3
(24,766 posts)Which means, in English, a massive Democratic turnout at the polls.
Poiuyt
(18,129 posts)I'm feeling better than I was a week ago, but still not too confident. Here in Appleton, there are more Barrett signs popping up, but they're still greatly outnumbered by walker signs. I'm really happy to hear the latest report from David Schuster and walker being the target of the federal probe.
But you're right. This will definitely come down to GOTV!
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Appleton is generally a conservative area, isn't it? Glad to see more Barrett signs showing up around there!
Poiuyt
(18,129 posts)It could be that people aren't putting up signs because they don't want to have a brick thrown through their front windows.
Turbineguy
(37,359 posts)fixing the damage is a huge task.
LiberalFighter
(51,005 posts)Republicans do better in off years.
Turnout should be higher. If it approaches anything near 2012 I would expect a win.
K8-EEE
(15,667 posts)and people like you.....YOU AMAZE ME WITH YOUR DEDICATION AND HARD WORK IN THE FACE OF THE BIG MONEY VILLAINS!
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)up there? I would think that the possibility of all that negative press for the state would sway some
undecideds?
Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)I appreciate and recognize your apprehension.
For a longtime now, inadvertently, I have been exposed to Scott Walker and his minions.
AND.... Unless you were exposed to Milwaukee County Politics would one appreciate the machinations of Scott Walker. Through a strange appreciation of events I have been made aware of his bullshit politics while he was County executive.
As a northern Wisconsinite.... with perspective, I can reinforce the fact that this MOFU is going down by his own actions. It is simply his own KARMA.
QED
MADem
(135,425 posts)and picks up someone else who needs a lift on the way, it can be done.
If the wind is at your back, you can do it!
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)I feel Wisconsin is very important. I have a strange feeling that how Wisconsin goes is how the nation will go in November.
Thanks again and hoping for the best.
benlurkin
(198 posts)Russ Feingold voted out (stunner!), Republican Governor and legislature all in one election. What happened that so many voted out the Democrats? What was going on with your economy at the time?
I don't believe that the tea party did this on their own, they're not that powerful to change the landscape so drastically.
sunnystarr
(2,638 posts)The Republicons were energized by the Tea Party and voted while the Dems stayed home and didn't vote. Getting out the vote is critical to winning elections. So no the Tea Party didn't do it on their own, the Dems helped out enormously by staying home.
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)Until someone does a good statistical analysis at the precinct level, I don't trust ther 2010 election any more than the Supreme Court results in Milwaukee City. See post below.
Bonduel
(96 posts)I get tired of the cheating claim. It makes us look silly every time we lose an election. I believe there may have been one election stolen on the national stage or in Wisconsin. And that was the Bush/Gore election. The Supreme court race in Wisconsin was not stolen. Screwed up badly, yes. But it was not stolen.
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)and reality does not determine what you believe either, does it?
But, it is obvious that you do state what you do believe nonetheless.
Iwillnevergiveup
(9,298 posts)I truly thank you for the Herculean efforts people like you have made. This recall vote is massively important, and the eyes of the nation are upon you.
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)thanks for all the work you've done trying to unseat this louse.
you, and others like you, are and will always be the backbone of this nation.
even if the worse thing happens and the snake is re-elected (or confirmed in his office or whatever) your work will have educated and encouraged many in wisconsin to participate in and pay attention to the political process. that is a win in itself.
every community needs a few like you.
thanks and good luck tuesday.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)I know the voting will be closely monitored Tuesday but what about all the early voting and the absentee ballots? Can you confidently say there has been no opportunity for anyone to tinker with that? I just have zero confidence that everything will be on the up and up there, especially since the Walker supporters know the polls have been really tightening....
Sam
eowyn_of_rohan
(5,858 posts)from absentees to machine "glitches" to stuffed ballot bags.... More people than ever before are aware of this now. OUr eyes are wide open...
grantcart
(53,061 posts)thanks
progressoid
(49,992 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I'm hearing at leat 65% but no one is doing any analysis of which side is benefitting.
The Rethugs are already out there screaming voter fraud, just in case Walker loses.
noel711
(2,185 posts)That 'found' all the votes for the conservative supreme court judge?
do I have the name right?
Will there be some kind of countability witnesses there
to verify the safekeeping of votes in that town?
Or will there be a sudden and random discovery
of tens of thousands of votes for Walker on Thursday morning?
Has anything done to rectify shady voting procedure?
Ivywoods55
(131 posts)Even nationally, there is so much riding on your elections tomorrow concerning unions and collective bargaining, evil governors, and the will of the people to have an active voice in government. I am praying that Governor Walker gets his butt kicked right into the offices of Koch Industries! Keeping the faith and rallying around my Wisconsin Sisters and Brothers that all will turn out well for you tomorrow! !
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)Waukesha County and Kathy Nickolaus played the perfect DISTRACTION role, better than Hollywood could have produced it!
Hopefully, the Wisconsin Dems learned their lesson from the Supreme Court special election.
That, of course, is one of two possible lessons:
1.) Don't let them cheat and steal votes, or
2.) Get out the vote in the City of Milwaukee.
Some will remember the Milwaukee Anomaly, a huge red shift in the very bluest part of the state while the rest of WI shifted blue.
Did the blue voters stay home only in the City of Milwaukee, or did someone rig the election in Democrat-rich inner Milwaukee?
Meanwhile, in Waukesha County, the vote results were normal with nothing anomalous except the screw-ups in reporting the fully-expected results.
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/spreadsheets.html#wisconsin
If Dems want to win this one, Milwaukee is where they have to focus either a powerful get-out-the-vote effort or a high level of scrutiny. I recommend BOTH!
And i wonder that the John Doe investigation knows about the Milwaukee voting irregularity. There sure were a lot of Republican crooks at play there.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)election. In Milwaukee City voters have an opinion and have experience with this choice, and they are involved and motivated this time. Since the blue shift has not gone away, the bluest of blue blocks in WI joining the special election blue shift this time means the recall prevails (assuming there is no election rigging, of course).
thevoiceofreason
(3,440 posts)We are very proud of you!
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)it's because of the hard working people like you! Thank you so much for everything you have been doing!
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)is that in 2010 in PPP's final poll Walker led among Independents by 14-points, 54-40, meanwhile in today's final 2012 PPP poll, Barrett is up with indies by 2-points, 48-46. If Dems turnout strong and indies favor Barrett then I think Barrett wins.
liberalnationalist
(170 posts)I bet walker and his Kock sucker buddies are just a shit;'n their pants right now
glinda
(14,807 posts)Bonduel
(96 posts)glinda
(14,807 posts)shcrane71
(1,721 posts)This is a fight between fairness and sharing vs. crony capitalism and elitism. It's that simple.
On Wisconsin. We're all rooting for you.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)Sometimes my side wins, sometimes my side lose; and most of the time, the winner on either side was picked by the average of all polls conducted in that race. i do not remember a poll where Barrett was a head recently; therefore, I predict with high confidence and sadness that Walker will not be recalled.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)It's close enough where the election will be determined by GOTV. Our ground game is worth 3-points I think.
liberalnationalist
(170 posts)I am glad the pace is changing to our side..I believe Walker will be walking tomorrow in a big way
i just think all these polls are not as close as they say....why? because turnout is going to be big in the urban centers....people really really want this guy out
Bake
(21,977 posts)The Kochs didn't spend all that money just to lose a squeaker. By hook or by crook, Walker stays in.
I hope I'm wrong.
Bake
flamingdem
(39,314 posts)tabbycat31
(6,336 posts)I was there last year working on a recall and I would have loved to return but life got in the way.
Any reports on how the Green Bay area looks (that's where I was last year).
Scuba
(53,475 posts)Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
davidpdx This message was self-deleted by its author.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Lets hope Dems turn out in droves. If they do we win.
Bake
(21,977 posts)If it's close, Walker and this Thugs will steal it.
Please please please let me be wrong. Holding my breath!
Bake
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)On Wisconsin!