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PADemD

(4,482 posts)
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:02 AM Jul 2015

Hillary Clinton's standing with Democrats suddenly plunged

WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton's standing is falling among Democrats, and voters view her as less decisive and inspiring than when she launched her presidential campaign just three months ago, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-poll-favorability-2015-7#ixzz3g3iJCena

31 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Hillary Clinton's standing with Democrats suddenly plunged (Original Post) PADemD Jul 2015 OP
Sounds like a lot of people are VERY confused. Smarmie Doofus Jul 2015 #1
Buried 15 paragraphs into the article: sufrommich Jul 2015 #2
Plus, it is an online poll. DURHAM D Jul 2015 #6
You don't say? Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #9
It is Obvious to this Captain of the "Internets" that is commonly accepted polling practice./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #10
"sent from my Obamaphone" lunamagica Jul 2015 #26
I see what you did. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #28
We're going to have to come up with something to correct for the lack of landline service. jeff47 Jul 2015 #11
And yet 59% of them want to vote for her for President! Walk away Jul 2015 #3
The OP doesn't say "hated and reviled" - that's projection on your part. Maedhros Jul 2015 #29
Maybe you should check out that poll. It seems to be an outlier. Walk away Jul 2015 #30
Yeah, that's also projection on your part. Maedhros Jul 2015 #31
I don't trust polls. Any of them. 99Forever Jul 2015 #4
Polls are only accurate if they reinforce your views. -none Jul 2015 #12
I learned that lesson long ago. mmonk Jul 2015 #13
They are nothing more than.... 99Forever Jul 2015 #16
The trick is to reads LOTS of polls. Adrahil Jul 2015 #19
Wrongo. There is no trick. 99Forever Jul 2015 #25
Following the historic trend of first up front runners seldom prevailing pipoman Jul 2015 #5
Clinton has frozen out other potentially great candidates. earthside Jul 2015 #7
My thoughts exactly. askew Jul 2015 #15
I don't know if she can handle any more plunging. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #8
Yeah, I know! Adrahil Jul 2015 #20
I suspect the poll in the OP is an outlier and the fact that it is a function of its... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #21
It's a bit lower in Huff Po because RCP doesn't include yougov because it's an online poll* DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #22
Online polls are notoriously bad, even supposedly random ones. nt Adrahil Jul 2015 #23
Yes, because though they try to get a random sample it's difficult. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #24
in 2007 Hillary was out in front? Rosa Luxemburg Jul 2015 #14
This poll doesn't include Sanders or O'Mally or Biden for some strange reason. DCBob Jul 2015 #17
I'm surprised tomm2thumbs Jul 2015 #18
This will help the republicans gain control and destroy what little is left of us randys1 Jul 2015 #27
 

Smarmie Doofus

(14,498 posts)
1. Sounds like a lot of people are VERY confused.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:07 AM
Jul 2015

Unfortunately, they still vote.

Or CAN vote, if they want to.

sufrommich

(22,871 posts)
2. Buried 15 paragraphs into the article:
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:09 AM
Jul 2015

Other polls released this week show contrasting results. A Washington Post-ABC News survey found an uptick in Clinton's favorability, while a Suffolk University-USA Today poll showed a slightly net negative rating.

That means the downturn for Clinton could be a result of random differences in survey sampling

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
9. You don't say?
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:42 AM
Jul 2015
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,004 adults was conducted online Thursday to Monday, using a sample drawn from GfK's probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access with no cost to them.




DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
10. It is Obvious to this Captain of the "Internets" that is commonly accepted polling practice./nt
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:45 AM
Jul 2015

Sent from my Obamaphone

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
11. We're going to have to come up with something to correct for the lack of landline service.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:57 AM
Jul 2015

Polls are missing a larger and larger chunk of voters that don't have a landline. For example, I can't be polled via landline, and neither can anyone in my circle of friends or family.

There are ways to do online polls correctly. No idea if these people did, but given they are a professional outfit, it is likely they at least did not have dumb errors like "vote as often as you want".

Walk away

(9,494 posts)
3. And yet 59% of them want to vote for her for President!
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:09 AM
Jul 2015

Her nearest opponent's support is stuck in the teens. He must be a real dog if that's the best he can do with someone so hated and reviled!

 

Maedhros

(10,007 posts)
29. The OP doesn't say "hated and reviled" - that's projection on your part.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 02:06 PM
Jul 2015

The OP says "voters view her as less decisive and inspiring than when she launched her presidential campaign just three months ago."

Of note is the trend. If it continues, it may signify bad times ahead for Hillary. There's no doubt Hillary is the front-runner. For my own part, I'm happy that my candidate is trending UPWARD, while yours is trending DOWNWARD. There's a lot of campaigning ahead. I look forward to the debates.

Walk away

(9,494 posts)
30. Maybe you should check out that poll. It seems to be an outlier.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 03:53 PM
Jul 2015

And as far as the "hatred..." is concerned, I was referring more to the Bernie supporters on DU.

 

Maedhros

(10,007 posts)
31. Yeah, that's also projection on your part.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 04:35 PM
Jul 2015

We don't like Hillary's policies. For the most part, Bernie supporters seem to have a positive or neutral opinion of her as a person.

For myself, I've never met her, so I couldn't tell you if I like or dislike her. I can definitely say that her politics are horrible.

-none

(1,884 posts)
12. Polls are only accurate if they reinforce your views.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 10:05 AM
Jul 2015

Too often it is who commissioned the poll that determines the outcome.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
19. The trick is to reads LOTS of polls.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 12:13 PM
Jul 2015

Even then, of course, they can be wrong. But overall, they can do a good job of providing a snapshot. Nate Silver's aggregation model is very, very good, and his analysis is spot on, even when his conclusions conflict with his personal views.

He is known, for example, to be a Democrat, but predicted the both the 2010 and 2014 Republican victories pretty darn accurately based on his poll aggregate model and his understnading of the data.

 

pipoman

(16,038 posts)
5. Following the historic trend of first up front runners seldom prevailing
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:11 AM
Jul 2015

She will not get the nomination as I've been saying since her launch.

earthside

(6,960 posts)
7. Clinton has frozen out other potentially great candidates.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 09:28 AM
Jul 2015

One of the reasons I have become so against dynastic politics ... a candidate like Hillary is the elephant in the room making any freedom of movement very difficult. A known name with a "its her turn" imprimatur makes a big difference in the early stages of a race and, like the Repuglicans went through in 2000 with W., that skews polls and perceptions.

There certainly are indications that Democrats are not thrilled with Clinton and that she has serious electability problems, but her 'inevitability' and her money and her pedigree make competition difficult.

Just imagine if Hillary did the best thing for the Party and didn't seek the presidential nomination ... Democrats would be excited, engaged, debating, etc. and there would be a field of probably six or seven new, fresh and invigorating candidates.

So, I too believe that Hillary has feet of clay and may very well tumble further. But time is a'wastin' and if her fall comes late in the process it will damage the national Democrats very badly.




askew

(1,464 posts)
15. My thoughts exactly.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 10:48 AM
Jul 2015

We could be having such a dynamic and important primary. Instead we get Hillary hiding away from voters and trying to say as little as possible, while longshots trying to compete with her.

Her unfavorable #s have always been my chief concern about her electability. Her numbers have plummeted every time she runs campaigns. Voters like the idea of Hillary. They just don't like the reality of her.

Her numbers are already lower than they were at the end of the divisive 2008 campaign. That is not good news for the general election. And those #s are baked in with independents and Republicans. She isn't suddenly going to win them over after decades in the public eye.

Lastly, even more concerning is her trustworthy #s. They are horrible. I don't know that any non-incumbent can get elected with #s that bad. Bill managed to win re-election with his #s that low but that was a 3-person race and he was running for re-election. Hillary is running for her first term and those #s are going to continue to plummet as the e-mail story returns to the news every month through January as batches of new emails are released. It just re-affirms the narrative that Hillary is secretive and a liar.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
20. Yeah, I know!
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 12:17 PM
Jul 2015

Up by 40 in one and up by 45 in the other!

I admit I am anxious for 538 to start running its model.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
21. I suspect the poll in the OP is an outlier and the fact that it is a function of its...
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 12:22 PM
Jul 2015

I suspect the poll in the OP is an outlier and the fact that it is a function of its unorthodox methodolgy that go well beyond being conducted online.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
22. It's a bit lower in Huff Po because RCP doesn't include yougov because it's an online poll*
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 12:24 PM
Jul 2015

It's a bit lower in Huff Po because RCP doesn't include yougov because it's an online poll* and since yougov is publishing the most polls it's affecting the results.





*yeah I know it's a supposedly random sample online poll.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
17. This poll doesn't include Sanders or O'Mally or Biden for some strange reason.
Thu Jul 16, 2015, 10:51 AM
Jul 2015

Yet it includes every single Republican clown. Very suspect.

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