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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 01:29 PM Jul 2015

Does Hillary Have a Swing-State Problem?

By Josh Voorhees

Despite Bernie Sanders’ best efforts, Hillary Clinton remains on pace to secure her party’s nomination this summer. Assuming the overwhelming Democratic frontrunner makes it to the general election, though, potential trouble may be waiting. A new Quinnipiac University poll out Wednesday finds Clinton trailing in a pair of important swing states and locked in too-close-to-call races in a third with the GOP’s Big Three: Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush.

In a hypothetical match-up among registered voters in Colorado, Clinton trails Walker by 9 points, Rubio by 8 points, and Bush by 5 points. The news is similar in Iowa, where the former secretary of state trails Walker and Rubio both by 8 points, and Bush by 6 points. And in Virginia, Clinton trails Walker and Bush both by 3 points, and Rubio by 2 points—although given the survey’s margins of error, those match-ups are too close for the pollsters to call either way. When Quinnipiac asked the same questions in April, Clinton had clear leads in five of the matchups, and split the remaining four too-close-to-call face-offs.

-snip-

The latest numbers are sure to prompt some handwringing from Team Hillary—along with some cheering from Team GOP—but it would be a mistake to read too much into one set of swing state surveys. The new numbers could be an early sign of a shift—or they could just be a few blips on the radar. Nationally, Clinton continues to fare much better in general election match-ups. In RealClearPolitics’ rolling average, she leads Walker by more than 10 points, Rubio by more than 7 points, and Bush by nearly 6 points.

Regardless, July 2015 is a long way away from November 2016. Once the GOP finally settles on a candidate, perceptions of that man or woman is certain to shift as voters learn more about him or her. (OK, fine, it’s going to be a man.) Even in Iowa—where voters are exposed early and often to White House hopefuls—more than a third of respondents said that they hadn’t heard enough about Rubio or Walker to have an opinion about them. Hillary, then, has plenty of time to try to right her own ship—and sink those of her rivals.

Complete article:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/22/hillary_clinton_s_swing_state_numbers_quinnipiac_poll_shows_clinton_trailing.html?
38 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Does Hillary Have a Swing-State Problem? (Original Post) DonViejo Jul 2015 OP
Worth looking into kcjohn1 Jul 2015 #1
Those folks supporting those 3 republican candidates by 8 points over Hillary do not mean any of the still_one Jul 2015 #5
Its going to be a close one... JaneyVee Jul 2015 #2
Need to see confirmation of other polls, but regardless it does not still_one Jul 2015 #3
She has a corporate money problem Fearless Jul 2015 #4
I'm in Colorado ... earthside Jul 2015 #6
I don't seen the other Democratic candidates faring any better. Don't forget, Hillary is taking the Metric System Jul 2015 #7
And her unfavorables remain high. London Lover Man Jul 2015 #10
Bernie's unfavorables aren't so great either. Metric System Jul 2015 #19
Fantasy. London Lover Man Jul 2015 #21
Qpac's 2014 polling in Colorado was a disaster. geek tragedy Jul 2015 #8
What happened then? Sorry I don't remember. n/t MoonRiver Jul 2015 #9
governors race polls: geek tragedy Jul 2015 #15
What do you think is up with Quinnipiac? MoonRiver Jul 2015 #22
just not very good, in Colorado anyways nt geek tragedy Jul 2015 #25
Results we don't like? Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #26
Maybe, but I'm reading here that they are often wrong. Just asking questions. MoonRiver Jul 2015 #29
Yes, by people who don't like the results Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #31
Ok. But if they're correct across the board, we're in for a world of hurt. MoonRiver Jul 2015 #32
Well Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #34
Not dismissing anything. Just asking questions. n/t MoonRiver Jul 2015 #36
I love Just Asking Questions off Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #37
Senate race polls Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #23
2014 polling showed that Udall had a slight lead over Gardner London Lover Man Jul 2015 #11
It's odd...Despite their controversial methods PPP nailed so many state races/nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #13
How was their 2014 Iowa polling? Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #14
They were off by 8.5% in the other direction. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #20
Oh wait, I assumed you were referring to their governor's race polling Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #17
One poll...all others show her beating the Republican field brooklynite Jul 2015 #12
I'd love to see how Bernie is polling in those states taught_me_patience Jul 2015 #16
He's losing, by about the same margins as Clinton. MoonRiver Jul 2015 #24
He's losing worse than Clinton, he never gets out of mid-30s. SunSeeker Jul 2015 #33
She does here in Colorado. It's early yet but I don't think she will pull it out here. n/t Autumn Jul 2015 #18
Women will rally around Hillary when she focuses on their issues in the GE. (eom). oasis Jul 2015 #27
In fundyville USA ? Doubtful Autumn Jul 2015 #30
We moved beyond the "What's the Matter With Kansas" types. oasis Jul 2015 #35
Maybe in some areas.n/t Autumn Jul 2015 #38
Hillary has a likability problem and a trustworthy problem. askew Jul 2015 #28

kcjohn1

(751 posts)
1. Worth looking into
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 01:37 PM
Jul 2015

Hillary supporters will point to other polls and call this poll outlier. However all the other polls I have seen are national vs swing states.

I have always said Hillary will be unpopular with the general public. Her only option is to run negative campaign and hope the Republican candidate is less popular. This will be tough due to money the other side is going to raise. Plus negative campaigns tend to reduce turnout which favors Republicans.

still_one

(92,382 posts)
5. Those folks supporting those 3 republican candidates by 8 points over Hillary do not mean any of the
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 01:51 PM
Jul 2015

other Democratic candidates will fare much better, assuming this particular poll is accurate, and didn't over sample republicans, because they ASSUMED that Democrats won't show up. That worked out very well for Gallop in the 2012 election, where they came in dead last.

Other polls are needed to confirm this. It should be kept in mind for whatever reason those states voted for the likes of joni ernst and Walker in Wisconsin, and that indicates what they are calling swing states, are more purple than not

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
2. Its going to be a close one...
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 01:41 PM
Jul 2015

There's a lot at stake this election. We need senate victories as well.

still_one

(92,382 posts)
3. Need to see confirmation of other polls, but regardless it does not
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 01:44 PM
Jul 2015

mean good news for any of the Democratic candidates in the race. Anyone looking at the positions of those republicans from going to war, to the war against women, one has to conclude either the polling over sampled republicans, or those states have turned hard right and lost their fu**ing minds

earthside

(6,960 posts)
6. I'm in Colorado ...
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 01:56 PM
Jul 2015

... and I've said all along that Hillary Clinton is a loser here.

Clinton trails GOP candidates in early Colorado poll
http://www.9news.com/story/news/local/politics/2015/07/22/hillary-clinton-quinnipiac-survey/30496739/

If a Democrat cannot win Colorado, Virginia, Nevada ... then it is going to be tough. Winning in those swing states also shows wide appeal -- a characteristic the Clinton campaign simply does not have and will make even carrying Ohio and Florida difficult.

Democrats are really letting themselves in for a big fall if they stick to this Clinton inevitability meme.
Yes, a Bush can get elected; yes, a Walker can get elected; yes, a Kasich can get elected; yes, a Roubio can get elected.

Unfortunately, I'm not seeing the activist-class that is paying attention this early in the process taking the real possibility of a Clinton defeat seriously.

I so wish Hillary would get out and let one of the fresh faces put forth a new vision for the Democratic Party and the nation. But sadly I think she and Bill are too in love with money and power to do the right thing.

Metric System

(6,048 posts)
7. I don't seen the other Democratic candidates faring any better. Don't forget, Hillary is taking the
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:08 PM
Jul 2015

brunt of attacks from the right-wing and the "liberal" media. If Sanders or O'Malley take the lead, they'll be subjected to the same scrutiny and attacks.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
15. governors race polls:
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:31 PM
Jul 2015

September 2014:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/poll-bob-beauprez-john-hickenlooper-111047.html

Another surprising Quinnipiac poll out this morning puts Republican Bob Beauprez up 10 points over Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper among likely voters, 50 percent to 40 percent.

The Democratic incumbent is badly underwater in the Q poll, viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 43 percent. Beauprez, a former congressman, is viewed positively by 49 percent and negatively by 31 percent.

No one in the game really believes that Beauprez is ahead by double digits a month-and-a-half out from the election. A Denver Post/SurveyUSA poll last week had Hickenlooper up 2 points, 45-43, among likely voters. The NBC/Marist Poll in the field Sept. 2-4, showed Hickenlooper up 4 points, 43-39.


http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_26854350/quinnipiac-poll-colorado-governor-senate-races-too-close

In the governor's race, Republican challenger Bob Beauprez has 45 percent of likely votes while Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper has 43 percent, the poll found.

"Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper will have to count on an aggressive final hour ground game and a bump from the undecideds to keep the state's top job, but it can go either way," Malloy said.


Final results:

Hickenlooper beat Beauprez.


Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
31. Yes, by people who don't like the results
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:52 PM
Jul 2015

and using one of their big misses as proof.

In the same poll they nailed the Senate race in Colorado.

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)
32. Ok. But if they're correct across the board, we're in for a world of hurt.
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:53 PM
Jul 2015

It's happened to other countries.

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
34. Well
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:58 PM
Jul 2015

1. Too far out to mean anything but.... it should send trembles. Unfavorability always plays a part in elections.

2. To dismiss polls out of hand by declaring them bad pollsters with little to no back up on that account does no one a service. Nate Silver grades them B+



Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
23. Senate race polls
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:46 PM
Jul 2015

November 3, 2014 - Beauprez-45%, Hickenlooper-43% In Colorado Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gardner At 45% To Udall's 43% In Senate Race

Final results:

Gardner beat Udall.

 

London Lover Man

(371 posts)
11. 2014 polling showed that Udall had a slight lead over Gardner
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:20 PM
Jul 2015

Only it turned out to be the opposite, and because Udall was DLC/Third Wayer, they decided to opt for the real thing.

 

taught_me_patience

(5,477 posts)
16. I'd love to see how Bernie is polling in those states
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:33 PM
Jul 2015

I seriously think that if Bernie won the nomination, he would struggle to win California, especially against a "perceived" moderate like Kasich.

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)
24. He's losing, by about the same margins as Clinton.
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:46 PM
Jul 2015

But that is just the latest Quinniapiac poll, which seems to be an outlier.

SunSeeker

(51,679 posts)
33. He's losing worse than Clinton, he never gets out of mid-30s.
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:58 PM
Jul 2015

And that despite no daily attacks from Fox like Clinton is enduring. At least Clinton gets in the 40s, and this polling outfit tends to lean GOP.

Here are all of Hillary's and Bernie's numbers against top GOP contenders in those three states:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2261


oasis

(49,406 posts)
35. We moved beyond the "What's the Matter With Kansas" types.
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 03:03 PM
Jul 2015

Obama being elected twice is proof of that.

askew

(1,464 posts)
28. Hillary has a likability problem and a trustworthy problem.
Wed Jul 22, 2015, 02:47 PM
Jul 2015

The fact that her favorables have been sinking in poll after poll should be alarming Hillary and her supporters. The fact that her trustworthy #s are so low that she is bordering on unelectable should terrify all Dems. The only president who got elected with trustworthy #s as low as Hillary's is Bill Clinton in 1996. Difference being he was running for re-election and he is one of the best politicians of his time. Hillary is not running for re-election and is an average politician at best.

What's most terrifying is her #s are falling quickly in Iowa, the state that has spent the most time with her up-close. That means she is actually becoming less likable and less trustworthy as voters see more of her.

Why on earth would we nominate such a damaged candidate?

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