2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLooks like we FINALLY got some info about how Bernie performs against potential GOP candidates....
Bernie was matched up against 4 potential nominees.
Here are the results:
---------------------------------------------------------------
Bernie Sanders 37%
Jeb Bush 44%
Not sure 19%
Bernie Sanders 47%
Donald Trump 37%
Not sure 15%
Bernie Sanders 39%
Scott Walker 40%
Not sure 21%
Bernie Sanders 36%
Marco Rubio 41%
Not sure 23%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's how Hillary performs against the same GOPers:
Hillary Clinton 46%
Jeb Bush 41%
Not sure 13%
Hillary Clinton 50%
Donald Trump 37%
Not sure 13%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Scott Walker 41%
Not sure 12%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Marco Rubio 41%
Not sure 13%
----------------------------------------------------------
If you look at the poll, Hillary was matched up against even more GOP candidates and she also beats every one of them head-to-head:
Hillary Clinton 47%
Ben Carson 39%
Not sure 14%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Chris Christie 38%
Not sure 16%
Hillary Clinton 48%
Ted Cruz 40%
Not sure 12%
Hillary Clinton 47%
Carly Fiorina 37%
Not sure 17%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Mike Huckabee 40%
Not sure 15%
Hillary Clinton 45%
Rand Paul 42%
Not sure 13%
Link:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_72215.pdf
FYI, PPP was the most accurate pollster during the 2012 presidential election cycle.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)And for someone who's just started getting the kind of national name recognition Hillary has had for years those numbers look fucking amazing to me! We are talking only a few point deficits here.
AllFieldsRequired
(489 posts)Bernie Sanders may have a ways to go with certain and very important groups of the base of the Democratic Party, but to be this close this early on, seems like a positive if you are a Bernie Sanders fan.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)8 months to go. You got a lot of shit shoveling to do.
Nite Owl
(11,303 posts)How Bernie is so close given how few know him.
sheshe2
(83,898 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)Still a long way to go, a path soon to be made slippery with mountains of mud that waits be thrown, alliances made/broken, bombshells, and fizzled ideas.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)arcane1
(38,613 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)His unfavorables rise very fast. Not quite as fast as trump, but much faster than his favorables.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)This is a trend that began when he announced, and no one was talking about Bernie back then but Bernie and his supporters.
Qutzupalotl
(14,327 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)When you go to a city of 500,000, and 5000-20000 go to a stadium to see you, that leaves 480,000-495,000 people who either may not know you, or don't like you.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Oops, guess you forgot that.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)And I look forward to her being sworn in a little over 18 months from now
bvar22
(39,909 posts)...bringing up "unfavorables"?
London Lover Man
(371 posts)Berni's a socialist!!!!1 (groan)
Alittleliberal
(528 posts)PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)bvf
(6,604 posts)Paying attention to polls at this point is as useful as speculating how Trump would do if he runs as an independent, or whether Jesus will rise from the dead in October '16 expressly to endorse Huckabee.
One poll at this point gives a little info but does not say "This candidate will win the election". Certainly gives folks an inclination of where the candidates stand in relation to each other. What I pay attention to is a series of polls. How the numbers change. Is there a trend? If so, is it significant or just a "burp"? Those kind of things. I sure wouldn't make any bets at this point as there's so much time for things to change by primary voting time, not to mention GE voting.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)I find these numbers to be encouraging, not just as a Bernie supporter but as a dem supporter. a look at the projected electoral college map is also reason for hope.
http://freedomslighthouse.net/election/2014-2016/2016-presidential-election-electoral-vote-map-polls-projections/
rocktivity
(44,577 posts)Last edited Fri Jul 24, 2015, 12:19 PM - Edit history (1)
Intriguing, yes. But pointless.
rocktivity
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Vattel
(9,289 posts)Awesome news for the Sanders camp.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)mmonk
(52,589 posts)and people out in the real world are still not familiar with him enough yet to draw enough of an opinion. Given that, I wonder how that same poll would have looked like at the beginning of June for comparison. Still too much time ahead to draw conclusions. It's not measuring enough. Celebrate now though if it makes you feel good. Your candidate is ahead.
MiniMe
(21,718 posts)Gore got more votes than W in 2000, and still lost the election. At least once the Supreme Court Selected Gore lost.
Gothmog
(145,554 posts)PATRICK
(12,228 posts)besides possibly a mass stupidity in the middle of the electorate, that the Dems depend on new and enthused voters, groups
NOT unitive blandness, and the GOP desperately clings to the hate smoke of its increasingly Nazified base just to tread water with gerrymandering and fraudulent publicity. For the GOP it's as if the Know Nothings bonded with the Whigs for mutual survival. In history they both died out. The Dems simply do not go in for the kill.
For those that like to sleep better at night, it would be better to see a universal meltdown in the GOP clown show instead of the steady forty per cent they seem to get out of nowhere. i would like see rewarded enthusiasm for a real progressive agenda.
The poll looks decent but is obviously too early for "final" result accuracy. I think it is pretty safe at this point that another dynamic comes into effect with any "fall of the frontrunner" debacle. And that dynamic might not result in a crushing progressive wave. Which we need, but by the history probably won't get without a Hoover and a Depression and something like a surging Labor movement.
If Third Party Trump splits the vote it will be a rare moment when the bad guys unite to do themselves in, irrevocably. Bernie is under the usual test, the first painful steps to approach challenging either frontrunner or a national agenda. Long long ways to go, but the more publicity for a real public agenda the better.
Jamaal510
(10,893 posts)to know that even Sanders polls better than him in the GE. But knowing how big his head is, he probably doesn't give a flying fart.