Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Why Bernie Sanders Will Become the Democratic Nominee and Defeat Any Republican in 2016 (Original Post) J_J_ Jul 2015 OP
can someone post part of the article? J_J_ Jul 2015 #1
From the article... R. Daneel Olivaw Jul 2015 #3
thank you! J_J_ Jul 2015 #4
the hate will be strong SoLeftIAmRight Jul 2015 #5
Article is a good read. Here's more snips: KoKo Jul 2015 #8
If he wins North Carolina I will pay attention to Bernie hack89 Jul 2015 #16
Bookmarking this OP for sure. Will be using it in the future. Thinkingabout Jul 2015 #2
If being behind by almost 30 points in Iowa is "tremendous momentum".... George II Jul 2015 #6
If corporate media support is all you have, the campaign is a farce J_J_ Jul 2015 #9
I agree. Have you ever been polled? Juicy_Bellows Jul 2015 #10
I get polled more or less regularly. SheilaT Jul 2015 #12
I have said this before artislife Jul 2015 #13
Young voters will be where its at... n8dogg83 Jul 2015 #11
Yet you post corporate media links without having read the actual content Sheepshank Jul 2015 #14
No, winning Iowa and NH would not make him a certainty Godhumor Jul 2015 #7
K & R L0oniX Jul 2015 #15
 

J_J_

(1,213 posts)
1. can someone post part of the article?
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 12:19 PM
Jul 2015

I couldn't actually get it to load but I figured with a title like that it has to be good....

 

R. Daneel Olivaw

(12,606 posts)
3. From the article...
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 12:24 PM
Jul 2015
Bernie Sanders is down by just 8 points in New Hampshire and has gained tremendous momentum in Iowa. If the Vermont senator wins both the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, the odds will favor him getting the Democratic nomination. What was once thought of as a long shot is becoming a reality, primarily because Bernie Sanders has energized his base while Hillary Clinton has been forced to defend against email and foreign donor scandals. However, this isn't the first time in recent history that a challenger to Clinton was once thought of as a long shot.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton finished third in Iowabehind Obama and John Edwards and eventually lost the Democratic nomination to the first African-American elected as president. This eventuality was once described as "the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen" by Bill Clinton, when the former president was asked about Obama's record and chances of winning the presidency. Even Hillary Clinton's "It's 3:00 am" advertisement, described by Harvard Professor of Sociology Orlando Patterson as having a "racist sub-message," couldn't prevent history from taking place and a more progressive electorate from deciding their own destiny at the ballot box.
 

J_J_

(1,213 posts)
4. thank you!
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 12:31 PM
Jul 2015

so strange Hillary supporters claim that she can win the general. Besides real Democrats having a problem with her, Republicans hate her.

I don't think her icon with the big red arrow pointing to the right is really going to bring them in.



KoKo

(84,711 posts)
8. Article is a good read. Here's more snips:
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 01:11 PM
Jul 2015

As for the Electoral College and Bernie Sanders, a closer look at the numbers and the electoral map shows that Vermont's senator is indeed a pragmatic choice (no email scandals, voted consistently on progressive issues before they were popular, energized a base of Democratic supporters) for Democratic nominee. Also, Sanders has a better chance than Hillary of defeating Jeb Bush or any other GOP challenger. According to a POLITICO piece titled The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict, Democrats across the nation simply have to vote in a similar manner to 2012 for Sanders to win:


That leaves just seven super-swingy states: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, all of which backed Bush and Obama twice each, and Iowa and New Hampshire, which have voted Democratic in three of the last four elections.

For the Democrats, a victory in 2016 entails zero expansion of the blue map, merely the limiting of blue-to-red transformations. Assuming the lean, likely, and safe Democratic states remain loyal to the party, the nominee need only win 23 of the 85 toss-up electoral votes. And if a lean Democratic state such as Wisconsin turns red, it is relatively easy to replace those votes with one or two toss-ups.

On the other hand, Republicans must hold all their usual states plus find a way to stitch together an additional 64 electoral votes, or 79 if they can't hold North Carolina. To do this, the GOP candidate will have to come close to sweeping the toss-ups under most scenarios--a difficult task...


What gives Hillary Clinton a better chance of winning states like Ohio (Brookings has a study titled Did Manufacturing Job Losses Hold the Midwest Back) than Bernie Sanders? Unlike Sanders, Hillary was for the TPP and voters weary of China and Vietnam taking jobs away from Americans will think twice about Hillary Clinton.

Also, communities around the country hit by the repercussions of American counterinsurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where close to 7,000 Americans died, over 50,000 wounded in combat, and over 900,000 injured, will think twice about voting for Hillary Clinton after her Iraq War vote. Bernie Sanders, however, was on the right side of history with Iraq and Afghanistan, he's always against horrible trade agreements, supported gay marriage and marijuana legalization (Hillary was against even the decriminalization of marijuana not long ago) and championed a range of other issues.

In other words, the electoral map shows that Bernie Sanders is not only a realistic candidate for president, but his record on a number of issues speaks to a wide range of voters. If Democrats simply vote based on their value system (considering demographic shifts favor Democrats), Bernie Sanders can easily win the presidency. If they nominate Hillary Clinton out of despair, thinking this is still 1999, then email scandals and an Iraq War vote could mitigate any advantages a Democratic challenger has over Jeb Bush or another Republican.

These aren't the days where Karl Rove can tap into a well of homophobia (Hillary was also against gay marriage at the time, stating "I don't support gay marriages, but I do support extending benefits to couples...&quot and gain millions of GOP votes by pushing for an amendment banning gay marriage. While "Moral Values" once carried GOP candidates into the White House, our outlook on social issues has changed as a nation. Americans care more about wealth inequality nowadays than marching with Mike Huckabee against the recent Supreme Court decision on gay marriage.

George II

(67,782 posts)
6. If being behind by almost 30 points in Iowa is "tremendous momentum"....
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 12:58 PM
Jul 2015

....his campaign is in deep trouble.

I can see him with an outside chance of winning in New Hampshire, but other than Vermont I can't see him winning any other primary.

 

J_J_

(1,213 posts)
9. If corporate media support is all you have, the campaign is a farce
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 01:16 PM
Jul 2015

When The same corporate media that lied about the war in Iraq (and has lied about everything since) is on your side....well, it doesn't look like you are on the side of truth.

The corporate media has become obsolete.

Millenials and Generation X shut that BS off a long time ago.

Polls can be fixed.

I highly doubt that most young people are being called, more likely a hand picked list of phone numbers.

Judging from the desperate attempts from Hillary supporters to attack Bernie with silliness, it is Hillary's campaign that is in deep trouble.

Juicy_Bellows

(2,427 posts)
10. I agree. Have you ever been polled?
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 01:26 PM
Jul 2015

I sure as shit haven't. I have never been polled in my life and have been registered as a Democrat and Independent throughout my life since I was 18. Anecdotal, but I don't know ANYONE of my friends that have been polled either (I am 40).

These 'polls' are small, so very small segments of the populace. I have no doubt most of them are heavily massaged into fitting whatever the blowhards wish to spin.

Keep up the good fight! Even at a place called Democratic Underground there is opposition to a real progressive - how about that?

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
12. I get polled more or less regularly.
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 02:06 PM
Jul 2015

On the other hand, I've only been called to jury duty once in my life.

Being registered to vote is usually what gets you jury duty, but it has nothing to do with being polled. That generally takes having a landline, and maybe being in the right demographic.

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
13. I have said this before
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 07:30 PM
Jul 2015

But I don't think they have the structure in place to actually poll well. They are using landlines and likely voters.

The closest thing I could find out about new voters each year in a short search was this article about the 2008 to 2012 numbers. In it some interesting items about how high the college vote is.
http://www.civicyouth.org/you-ask-we-answer-16-8-million-new-youth-eligible-to-vote-in-2012/

here are approximately 46 million youth eligible to vote in 2012.*
The number of young people who are newly eligible to vote since 2008 is about 16.8 million**



n8dogg83

(248 posts)
11. Young voters will be where its at...
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 01:33 PM
Jul 2015

from what i have seen so far, Bernie's campaign is attracting massive numbers of very young people. People that dont typically answer their cell phones when an anonymous pollster calls, people that will be out registering their friends to vote. I just dont sense that same level of enthusiasm among young voters for Hillary.

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
14. Yet you post corporate media links without having read the actual content
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 07:38 PM
Jul 2015

The irony is deep in this one

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
7. No, winning Iowa and NH would not make him a certainty
Thu Jul 30, 2015, 01:07 PM
Jul 2015

I doubt he'll win either, but it is very possible he can win both of those states and lose every single other one. Let's just say the demographics of Iowa and NH make up the only areas he had any strength in. Once you get to states with a more varied demographical background he does considerably poorer.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Why Bernie Sanders Will B...