I'd rather take a chance on Hillary

He still has some connection to real people.

IMO we win Presidential elections when our candidate has that connection. When they don't, we lose.

Biden would have to put together a comparable organization, raise funds, get commitments, take her down. if he could possibly do that in the short time before Jan 2016, the battle would be so destructive to the party that there is no way he could win - it would make 2008 look like pattycake. this is not running for president of the glee club.

The only scenario I see where Biden enters the race is what I outlined in Post 5

In the highly, highly, highly...unlikely event Hillary stumbled and had to exit the race, Joe Biden would inherit the lion's share of Hillary's supporters, donors, and endorsements and President Obama would put his considerably heavy thumb on the scale in favor of him.

-Politicians are at their most popular when they aren't running for anything.
-HRC had favorable ratings in the high 60s when she was SOS because she was out of the fray. Biden is out of the fray. If he got in the fray his favorable ratings would drop.
-I like Joe a lot but he has never caught on as a Democratic primary candidate in 88 and 08. He would win this time if there no HRC
-It's easier for HRC to "run for PBO's third term" because there's reasonable separation. Joe Biden would really be running for PBO's third term leading to questions of his individuality and leadership.
-But Joe is Hell Of a Plan B.

The reason I like Joe vs GOP is they can't play the 'authenticity' card when trying to get votes amongst working class Americans. Trying to take my D glasses off, that may be a problem for us in states like OH and FL w/ HRC. Line up something like a Biden/Tammy Baldwin ticket and I think we'd shore up a lot of important target markets that we were concerned about if Clinton were not the nominee. And Dr. Jill...talk about a superstar First Lady!

Your point re: popularity when not running is a good one. I reckon we'd see his polling numbers go up if he officially entered, but his likability ratings etc would fall a little. I am curious to see how that would play out in the grand scheme of things.

I do believe that the 88, 08 campaigns are apples to oranges in that he wasn't tied to the hip of the POTUS in those elections. His visibility was pretty much zilch outside of diehard followers of the Senate.

But if he got in the race it would tear the party apart and put President Obama in a untenable position.It puts President Obama and all the Democratic leaders who support HRC in a very awkward position as well...

I suspect he's going to enjoy his victory lap.

clear that she couldn't do it, Biden would enter the race and be able to inherit not just her supporters but most of her infrastructure.

And as I said to Dan a lot of the narrative is being driven by the right wing commentariat trying to sow seeds of doubt among us about our prospective general election candidate...

Also, Joe's relatively high favorable ratings are a function of his being out of the fray...HRC had high favorable ratings in the 60s because she was relatively out if the fray when she was SOS.

I can see the pluses and minuses of both candidates.

path to the nomination.

If they succeed in tearing her down, it would just bring in Biden.

If HRC wasn't in the race Joe Biden would be the Al Gore of this race. Biden would inherit HRC's massive support among people of color which is fueling her large lead over Sanders just as Al Gore's massive support among people of colr fueled his large lead over Bill Bradley... And as an aside Bill Bradley had a lot more credibility among African American as a NBA Hall Of Famer who worked as intimately as you can imagine with African Americans, had many as associates, and the endorsement of Michael Jordan... With all that Gore still trounced him among African Americans.

All the Sanders supporters are doing is weakening HRC for the general. Sadly I don't think a lot of them care.

While they may overlap to some extent, I don't think they overlap completely.

A lot of it went to Clinton including his chief pollster and strategist, Joel Benenson


https://twitter.com/benensonj


Also, Biden told his fund raisers they were free to fund raise for Ms. Clinton and many of them did.


Still, he's there like a fire hose encased in glass that says "break in case of an emergency."

If Hillary's numbers continue to go down, and Sanders stagnates...An Obama 3rd term doesn't seem so bad considering the alternatives...

Warren has the potential to unify both wings of the party, but with Hillary in the race it would make things complicated.

There's always O'malley but he doesn't have that fire in the belly that many people are craving.

IMO, he'd be picked apart in the generals.

GOP attacks.

I like Joe however it seems he's getting a lot of buzz among the conservative commentariat who want to sow seeds of doubt about our presumptive candidate and create general mischief.

I hate to curse but this shit is war... It's not for the faint of heart.

Yes, the GOP is trying to sow discontent about Hillary.

And, yes, Joe does come off as authentic and likeable.

I dunno, though, for whatever reason I'm not comfortable with him taking on the whole GOP attack machine. It's not the gaffes, exactly, I just don't see him having the same kind of toughness and fight that Hillary has. And I take no joy in saying that, because I really like him.

The only downside is his age and the degree of separation between him and PBO...

It's like the porridge...Senator Sanders is much, much , much .... much too far away from PBO, Joe Biden is too close, Hillary Clinton is about right,

He would have my enthusiastic support however I deal with what is likely to happen and not what is unlikely to happen and take extraordinary circumstances to occur.


But again, he's a Helluva Plan B.

If Obama is the status quo I could easily take 4, 8, 12, 16, ...100 more years of him and I suspect so would the lion's share of my fellow Democrats who give him approval ratings in the high 70s and low 80s.

That said , I like his legacy. Healthcare (even if it was the rightwing Heritage plan, it is an improvement), opening Cuba, the Iran matter dealing with nuclear power, LGBT marriage rights, etc.. The negatives are still with us such as TPP and other rightwing ideologies that have held us back from full economic recovery but in economics, both parties are Milton Friedman, Ronald Reagan, anti-Union, pro privatization supporters. That is why after the current election, I will move to unaffiliated. I will still be able to vote in Democratic Party Primaries.

TPP and Keystone are not non-negotiable issues for me. I do have several non-negotiable interests though. I really like Obamaism... It's ironic...I lost everything in the Great Recession; car, home, business, savings and investments. When I had money government was an abstraction to me. It was like my favorite team winning, when they won it made my happy but there really wasn't any tangible effect on my life. But thanks to the Affordable Care Act and its concomitant Medicaid expansion to include indigent single adults I now have health care. I can now point to government making a real difference in my life.


When I broke my elbow I was treated like a millionaire, right down to getting free transportation to my orthopedist and physical therapist.


God bless Obamacare.

of politicians which could win. And if not for the ACA, my family would be worse off.

I liked how he spoke truth to power, telling the president of Kenya on his turf, to stop persecuting gay people and the plight of gay people in Africa is no different than the plight of African Americans in the Jim Crow south.

It is only those that seek to exploit divisions in the world politic that keep things difficult and always a balancing act.

I have many Jewish and Muslim friends, and some of my Jewish friends are Israeli expatriates. I tell them in America when most folks have a disagreement they end up splitting the difference. I guess it's utopian to expect folks who harbor ancient hatreds and distrust of one another to embrace that approach.


I am deeply skeptical about Iranian intentions but I support the Iranian nuclear agreement because I trust President Obama has weighed a lot of alternatives , most of them bad, and chose the best one.

He has been an exceptional POTUS and leader!

...dividing the vote, to what end, for what purpose?

Despite the fact that every four years people tend to get very excited about some complete outsider swooping in and getting the nomination (and this happens with both parties), it's not going to happen. The last time that happened, I believe, was in 1880, when Garfield was nominated by the Republicans after 36 ballots. He had not even been a declared candidate, and only received one or two votes during the first 34 ballots.

Meanwhile, that was a vastly different system for nominating a Presidential candidate. These days, they have to get started very early, raise lots of money, get out there nearly two years before the general election in a very big way. Joe Biden does not at all act like a man who has any interest these days in being President.

The poll numbers, while somewhat interesting, don't mean anything if he's not actually running.

Probably the most level headed one out there. He is the one that I most feel would fight for me.

but nice isn't going to get him anywhere these days. In a way he's like Eisenhower was 60 years ago, a non-threatening grandfather figure people felt they could trust. Biden comes across a lot like that, and I'm not intending an insult. I think we need the kind of leadership we'd get with Bernie Sanders, someone who clearly sees what's wrong with so much and who will do everything he can to make genuine change.

.

Isn't now. Says goofy things, does goofy things, may be a nice man, but VP is where it should end.

he'll have no money and organization. Many of Clinton's backers, both voters and donors, simply went along for the Obama ride after 2008 because they had no choice. Also, if he can't even be competitive in a primary (think 1988 and 2008), why would he be competitive in a general?

It would be a great way to split the party tho. I don't think you really want to open old primary 2008 wounds. If you tried to do that, I'm damn sure Clinton's backers wouldn't hesitate to tear Biden (and Obama) new ones, not to mention Obama's legacy. The only reason Biden hasn't ruled it out yet, if he is smart, is to get Hillary's support on Iran policy. She's gone along; if betrayed, she cannot and won't play nice.

If he managed to take away Hillary's nomination, only able to be done thru lies and smears, I'd be tempted to stay home.

He's barely in the spotlight; of course his numbers look acceptable now.

He has far more visibility now than he had while in the Senate.

Also, you say 'split the party', I call it 'keeping our party honest'. Honestly I would feel a lot more comfortable voting for HRC if she was battle tested in the primary. I don't want to see our candidates backing down from adversity. Obama was tested in a high stakes 2008 Primary, he turned out pretty darn good. If HRC is a strong candidate, she will, too

Biden or O'Malley comes a distant second.

Biden comes a reasonably close second.

Talk all you like, but without the royal "we," please.

I'm not interested in Biden as a candidate, and I don't think he's running, anyway.

Why not talk about those who actually ARE running?

I think this is just name recognition again. Most people know who our VP is.

I like the guy and if he got in I would need to make a serious choice between Joe and Bernie. I just don't see any signs that he is going to run.

that biden is the only alternative to hillary

i am going with bernie

actually, my ranking would be

sanders
omalley
biden
winnie the pooh
hillary/chaffee/web
leaving the country

They aren't that far off where Clinton was. Once he enters, they will start to go down. Sanders supporters will be relentless with his past economic record and comments. Hillary supporters would be right there with them though that will take a little stretching. Right now he is simple the Vice President.

Joe Biden is a good and decent man and a great Democrat and this HRC supporter would never speak ill of him. He is a Helluva Plan B but I don't see him entering the race unless HRC somehow exited it and that doesn't seem at all likely. She's a fighter!!!

If she exited the race Joe Biden would likely inherit the lion's share of her supporters. I hate to suggest the sentiment of DU is indicative of anything but as you can see by this thread most HRC supporters are very comfortable with Joe Biden as they are comfortable with his boss. Why, because we are stalwart Democrats.

I am really big on both of them. I do think my point is accurate with respect to his numbers. Entering the race would bring them down. Yes, I know he would never do so with Hillary running. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they would tank. Additionally, in unicorn world, if he got in the race with Hillary I do think her supporters would draw distinction. Not as harshly as Sanders supporters, but distinction none the less.

"Joe Biden is a good and descent man."

Truly one of the best.

When HRC was the SOS and above the fray she was polling in the high 60s. When she got in the fray her numbers went down. They will come back up in the general, imho, when she's running against one Republicant.