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ericson00

(2,707 posts)
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:28 AM Aug 2015

Biden into the Presidential Race: A Spectacular Formula for Party Division and Election Defeat

I admire and respect Joe Biden a decent amount. He's a strongwilled man and a savvy backroom politician. His administration's economic and social policies are pretty good so far. I'm not a huge fan of Obama's foreign policy but I vote on wallet/economic and social issues. Joe Biden, however, is a horrendous Presidential candidate, given how in 1988 and 2008 panned out.

While 2008 may seem like ancient history, clearly the loyalty which Clintons' supporters and donors hold is strong. Its strong enough to forgive, but not to forget the vicious attacks on the Clintons which emanated from that contest. Accusing the Clintons of racism, downplaying their electoral resurrection of the Democratic Party (the Clintons made national elections for Democrats even possible after losses in 5 out of 6 elections from 1968-1988), implying she was a "neocon" because she rightly said we'd punish Iran if they were to nuke Israel, using discredited GOP witchhunt talking points from the '90s against them, including "Whitewater" and standard presidential pardons, calling Hillary a "monster," attacking the charitable philanthropic Clinton Foundation, I could go on.

The party was wounded, and some talked of a brokered convention. Those wounds took mountains to close. It took a lot to unite the Democratic Party in 2008, and the economic crash and an incumbent President with 30% approvals didn't hurt that. While Obama has treated the Clintons acceptably since he took office, such as giving Bill the medal of freedom and appointing Hillary, rumor has it she wasn't very listened to, particularly on issues like Iran and the Jewish State of Israel (where her ideas were closer to the broader public). Barack enjoys Bill "in doses."

Part of the reason Hillary's 17 million primary voters came home was that it was implied the Clintons would get their due in return, knowing full well Hillary's presidential ambitions were likely not over. If Joe Biden jumps into the 2016 race, some might take that as stabbing the Clintons in the back. Joe Biden also brings no swing states. Regional states near Biden, such as DE, MD, PA are amongst a plethora of states that have voted straight Democrat since 1992 after voting Reagan/Bush '88/Nixon (who achieved that??) The Clintons can once again win MO, AZ (Bill won it in 1996), AR (which Bill won twice by huge amounts), and possibly WV and Kentucky, if not make them competitive to get GOP to waste coin there. WV used to be so Democratic it voted Carter twice and Dukakis before Bill won it in 2 landslide margins. Joe Biden only got put on Obama's ticket because he would ruffle no feathers and was essentially neither much of a plus but not a minus, and lacked Edward's empty suit/non-experience. The Clintons are much more popular with working-class whites than Biden is, and Obama's margin of victory went down in 2012: we need it to either go back up, or weather a potential fall in approvals if it happens. Plus, as we know, Biden is a gaffe machine. While he doesn't attract the kind of media hatred Hillary does, the admin does have some things people like and dislike. He also lacks the organization and money that the Clintons have built for 24 years since Bill announced in Little Rock, Arkansas back in 1991 to the tune of "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow." I would rather not see them have to unleash Democrat against Democrat.

The Clintons did their part for Obama. She and Bill helped unite the party in 2008 after the mean attacks on her and a divisive primary that split the party among race and class. The Clintons could've forced a brokered convention if they wanted. They chose to put country tho above politics. She's supporting the Iran deal despite its possible demise in Congress and some polling about it. She was his administration's foreign policy cheerleader. Bill's speech at the 2012 DNC is widely credited with helping Obama stay ahead of Mitt in that tossup election. Biden, as Obama's VP and thus a proxy for Obama himself ought to reciprocate that by staying out of 2016. We have the chance to elected the first female president. We got the first black President, pretty impressive. Now its time to end the glass ceiling, nominate and elect Hillary Clinton, not Joe Biden, President.

46 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Biden into the Presidential Race: A Spectacular Formula for Party Division and Election Defeat (Original Post) ericson00 Aug 2015 OP
I agree. nt MADem Aug 2015 #1
Biden slaughtered Ryan in the '12 veep debate and turned the race around BeyondGeography Aug 2015 #2
I, for one, would think him entering (whatsay September) would be a great boost to Democrats tomm2thumbs Aug 2015 #3
I really don't believe that Joe Biden BlueMTexpat Aug 2015 #4
If he enters the race, he'll definitely hurt Hillary. marmar Aug 2015 #5
Exactly . . . markpkessinger Aug 2015 #8
Not so. BlueMTexpat Aug 2015 #22
All this seems to boil down to: blackspade Aug 2015 #6
Also - "Elect a woman". This OP is right where the HRC campaign started this time. n/t djean111 Aug 2015 #16
"elect a _______" ericson00 Aug 2015 #25
It's interesting what each camp, Obama/Clinton...remembers about the election of 2008. Stellar Aug 2015 #7
Me too artislife Aug 2015 #21
I was firmly Pro HIllary then. Hatchling Aug 2015 #29
you don't wanna go there. ericson00 Aug 2015 #37
Well excuse me and my lying eyes, Stellar Aug 2015 #46
I think many miss-read the mood of the country. zeemike Aug 2015 #9
More of the same 'It's her turn' nonsense. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #10
what "racist attacks?" ericson00 Aug 2015 #36
Wow! A hit piece already Le Taz Hot Aug 2015 #11
I'm a grassroots primary voter and ericson00 Aug 2015 #31
I agree. DURHAM D Aug 2015 #12
You nailed it. Mike Nelson Aug 2015 #15
Thanks. I will never forgive him for that, either. It was truly disgusting. kath Aug 2015 #20
Clarence Thomas is an embarrassment to the SCOTUS, and America too ericson00 Aug 2015 #26
Ouch kenfrequed Aug 2015 #33
He was Judiciary committee chair. DURHAM D Aug 2015 #35
your post is the picture of entitlement karynnj Aug 2015 #13
What Durham D said... Mike Nelson Aug 2015 #14
Not exactly. LWolf Aug 2015 #17
Yes we all know - Hillary is entitled, she deserves to be president. Avalux Aug 2015 #18
Chicken little nonsense MBplayer Aug 2015 #19
So, basically you're saying it's Hillary's turn. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #23
Joe is a good and decent man who should do as he wants. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #24
Hillary's campaign is humming along fairly well. oasis Aug 2015 #27
This sounds suspiciously like "everyone should just get out of the way for Hillary." winter is coming Aug 2015 #28
So Clinton supporters are sensitive to labels of racism. SolutionisSolidarity Aug 2015 #30
Question about your 4th paragraph Shrek Aug 2015 #32
gee, I wonder why the Clintons got such big roles at the convention and ericson00 Aug 2015 #34
I feel like the Clintons have already gotten plenty Yupster Aug 2015 #43
Basically you want a coronation jfern Aug 2015 #38
more like the candidate who can best win and less party division ericson00 Aug 2015 #39
2008 was a long primary that wasn't decided until June jfern Aug 2015 #40
it took a lot to unite the party, and ericson00 Aug 2015 #41
My point wasn't about 1992 jfern Aug 2015 #42
the Dems had no-names at the start of the 1992 primary: we have a huge name today. ericson00 Aug 2015 #44
Let's see jfern Aug 2015 #45

BeyondGeography

(39,374 posts)
2. Biden slaughtered Ryan in the '12 veep debate and turned the race around
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:46 AM
Aug 2015

He'd be a damned good candidate. He can take it to the Republicans as good as anyone and he'd defend Obama's record better than anyone. Since the GOP will make next year about whether or not the country wants a 3rd Obama term, that's a good thing.

There's a lot of things I could add, but this field has a personality deficit right now. Biden is a lot of things that Hillary and Bernie are not. He would add some much needed heart and soul to the equation (and, yes, the occasional gaffe and frequent good humor). I hope he jumps in.

tomm2thumbs

(13,297 posts)
3. I, for one, would think him entering (whatsay September) would be a great boost to Democrats
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:58 AM
Aug 2015



Let's talk issues and who can make the best impact for good in a divided Washington, and kick the Republican's butts from one end of the country to the other.



BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)
4. I really don't believe that Joe Biden
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 06:13 AM
Aug 2015

really wants to run so am not getting too "het" up about it. Even if ...

The last time Biden entered a Presidential contest was in 2008 and he lagged most, if not all, other candidates. For the most part, Hillary's supporters from 2008 - she didn't lose to Obama by much, after all - will be with her now, and many like me are even more fervently behind her now than they were then. She has also picked up several 2008 Obama supporters and I do not believe that her support is so whimsical or ephemeral that a Biden bandwagon would gain from it, however much voters may like Joe personally.

Yes, Biden has been an excellent Veep for Obama, IMO. He likely can be put to great use in other areas of public service, if he chooses to do so - as I hope that he does. But Biden has never been the first choice of Dem voters for President and nothing in the 2016 election will really change that, IMO. Besides a lot of us still remember his enabling of Clarence Thomas to SCOTUS and that has been an ongoing tragedy for all, given Thomas's performance since.

Because neither candidate that I truly favored (Al Gore or Howard Dean) ran in 2008, the truly wrenching issue for me in 2008 was whether to vote for an extremely qualified woman or an extremely qualified African-American in the primaries. After a lot of soul-searching, I finally landed on the side of Clinton for two reasons: a) she IS an extremely qualified person - who has become even more so since that time - and I as a woman could not find it in my heart not to vote for a woman with her qualifications; and b) I believed that Barack Obama could use more "seasoning" at the national level to see through GOPer BS before becoming President.

We all know how things turned out and I proudly supported Prez O afterwards. Unfortunately, his selection of Rahm Emanuel as CoS confirmed my instinctive hesitations, especially when he followed Emanuel's advice and "dumped" Dean, who was most responsible for Dem majorities in the House and Senate and who really, really wanted to be HHS Sec'y. Dems have lost ground in Congress since the DNC let Dean's 50-state strategy slide and went back to the same-old-same-old key state strategy. Hopefully, DWS will re-implement that strategy in 2016.

Prez O has been a very fast learner and has accomplished a lot since his first stumbles - especially given the consistent wall of obstruction he has had to face from the GOP and occasionally even from his own party. I certainly never regretted voting for him - just as I will vote for whoever is the Dem candidate.

I do not seriously believe that the Dem candidate will be Biden, however, or that Biden will hurt Hillary, in the improbable event he does enter the race.

markpkessinger

(8,401 posts)
8. Exactly . . .
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 07:50 AM
Aug 2015

. . . For those of uslk who support Bernie, and have major concerns regarding Hillary, Biden has many of the same liabilities.

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)
22. Not so.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 12:30 PM
Aug 2015

Hillary's support is neither as whimsical nor as ephemeral some DUers might wish to believe.

That support has also been strong - and unwavering - for quite a LONG time and I don't see that changing at all. Joe would just be another "shiny new thing" for the media to hype. In the final analysis, he is just another white male candidate to add to the mix, if he actually jumps in. His policies would be very similar to other Dem candidates, especially those of Hillary, Bernie & Martin O, although his rhetoric may possibly be less fiery than Bernie's. His minuses are similar to Hillary's (he has a Huge Minus in the Clarence Thomas fiasco among those of us who remember), but her strengths and appeal trump his - as evidenced by their respective performances among voters in the 2008 primaries.

It is fitting to say that we Dems are not only blessed in our candidates, but in our potential candidates, however.

Whatever happens, we'll see in the primaries whether your view or mine carries the day. Until then, we're both just blowing smoke.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
25. "elect a _______"
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 12:45 PM
Aug 2015

Hillary isn't the only one to do that. What happened to showing "the world America 'got over race?'"

Stellar

(5,644 posts)
7. It's interesting what each camp, Obama/Clinton...remembers about the election of 2008.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 07:27 AM
Aug 2015
While 2008 may seem like ancient history, clearly the loyalty which Clintons' supporters and donors hold is strong. Its strong enough to forgive, but not to forget the vicious attacks on the Clintons which emanated from that contest. Accusing the Clintons of racism,


Something I personally witnessed over and over again, thanks in part to Bill Clinton. I was retired by then and had time to watch our hometown guy, Senator Barack Obama do good. Also, you're giving Bill credit for winning certain states and saying, Hillary will be able to do the same because her husband did it....that's possible I guess.

So, if you credit or blame Bill for certain things, then you have to do the same to Hillary since it's her campaign. She didn't make her husband stop his racist ways back then.



 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
21. Me too
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 12:03 PM
Aug 2015

They were getting desperate and the end was near and what started coming out of their mouths? Their surrogates mouths?

When times are good, we are all friends and when times aren't we are all competitors and any advantage is still an advantage.



Hatchling

(2,323 posts)
29. I was firmly Pro HIllary then.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:25 PM
Aug 2015

But the Obama camp provided devastating information about her. I clung on to my support for the first woman president till the primary win of Obama but I was absolutely relieved that she wasn't our candidate by then. I wasn't a Puma that's for sure.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
37. you don't wanna go there.
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 03:11 AM
Aug 2015

Clinton did not say or do anything racist in 2008. The Clintons, both of them, spent their whole lives helping black people. In 2008, the Clintons had done more for blacks than Obama had up to that point. Not to mention, they got rid of welfare and softness-on-crime as national issues, hence why we're better off than in 1988. Those wedge issues were racially tinged and now don't exist, hence why America could elect a black at all.

The fairy tale remark was about Obama and Iraq, which he wasn't even in Congress for. It was not racist. You do not want to open these wounds.

Stellar

(5,644 posts)
46. Well excuse me and my lying eyes,
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 10:22 AM
Aug 2015

I know what was said that Clinton had done for PoC, A.A's.

Obama Trounces Clintons’ Racist, Entitled S.C. Campaign

The Clinton campaign kept saying, “He’s black, black, black,” as author and South Carolina activist Kevin Alexander Gray pointed out on Jesse Jackson’s “Keep Hope Alive” program Sunday morning. And Bill Clinton used coded language, like the “old okie-dokie,” which served to remind whites of Obama’s blackness, Gray added. That's like saying don’t fall for the old “shuck and jive.”

And speaking of “shuck and jive,” that’s exactly the phrase Andrew Cuomo used to disparage Obama in New Hampshire, saying he can’t use that “shuck and jive” at press conferences.

Obama’s black, get it.

- See more at: http://www.progressive.org/news/2008/01/5995/obama-trounces-clintons%E2%80%99-racist-entitled-sc-campaign#sthash.u0sYjyd9.dpuf


Bill Clinton Has Regrets on Campaign for Wife

*snip*
Bill Clinton suggested he is still mad at one politician, South Carolina's Rep. Jim Clyburn, who abandoned his neutrality to back Obama after claiming that the former president had injected race into the campaign.

When Clyburn's name was brought up as a supporter who criticized the former president, Clinton interrupted to say Clyburn was never a supporter of the Clintons.

When Clyburn's description was changed to "longtime friend," Clinton replied, "Used to be."

Pressed on whether Clinton "severely damaged" his standing with African-Americans as Clyburn has claimed, Clinton snapped, "Yeah, that may be. By the time he got through working on it, that was probably true."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=5506458


You said:
"Not to mention, they got rid of welfare and softness-on-crime as national issues, hence why we're better off than in 1988."

Bill Clinton says he made mass incarceration issue worse
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/15/politics/bill-clinton-1994-crime-bill/

Black Leader in House Denounces Bill Clinton’s Remarks
By MARK LEIBOVICH APRIL 24, 2008 7:53 PM


http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/black-congressman-denounces-b-clintons-remarks/

"They got rid of welfare"? I retired from there after 25 yrs and I still have friends that work there. And, softness on crime? That's different from tough on crime, I'm sure.

zeemike

(18,998 posts)
9. I think many miss-read the mood of the country.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:12 AM
Aug 2015

They are fed up with the status quo and have been for decades.
If you look at when Democrats won in the past, they have all been outsiders and unknowns...Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama...all unknowns until they won.

Those who call themselves independents have grown over the years and they came mostly from the Democratic party, disillusioned by nothing ever changing and business as usual in DC. Those are the people that will vote or not vote and if not Democrats tend to lose as past elections show.

So if you want the GOP to have another shot at the WH offer them an establishment candidate, and the results will be low turnout and a possibility of a Jeb president. If you think the GOP will offer up a clown like Cruz or Trump you are mistaken...the clowns running are more about scarring the Dems than offering the Republicans a serious choice.

Erich Bloodaxe BSN

(14,733 posts)
10. More of the same 'It's her turn' nonsense.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:19 AM
Aug 2015

Politics in America isn't meant to be some sort of 'get in line, become the President' sort of deal.

After her racist attacks on Obama in 2008, she's lucky he was willing to give her any position at all in government.

I welcome Biden into the race, and hope he drinks her milkshake, taking large chunks of the centrist voters away from her in the primaries.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
36. what "racist attacks?"
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 11:08 PM
Aug 2015

no, the fairy tale remark was about Obama and Iraq, not his race. Hillary didn't cry in NH out of racism. Yet that scum Jesse Jackson Jr. peddled that, oh his hucksterism is why he's in jail now.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
11. Wow! A hit piece already
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:34 AM
Aug 2015

and he hasn't even announced yet. Well, I suppose that says something for preparedness on the part of the Clinton campaign.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
31. I'm a grassroots primary voter and
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 04:18 PM
Aug 2015

not part of any campaign. Believe it or, the groundswell for Hillary is not just a "corporations" thing.

DURHAM D

(32,610 posts)
12. I agree.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:36 AM
Aug 2015

If Biden decides to run Anita Hill will announce her support for Hillary the next day. I will never forgive Biden for his orchestration of her public stoning and watching how much he enjoyed the attention he got from the Thomas hearings. It was disgusting.

kath

(10,565 posts)
20. Thanks. I will never forgive him for that, either. It was truly disgusting.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 11:54 AM
Aug 2015

He totally mismanaged those hearings, and it was shameful the way he treated Anita Hill.

Thanks for giving us Clarence Thomas, Joe!

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
26. Clarence Thomas is an embarrassment to the SCOTUS, and America too
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 12:49 PM
Aug 2015

I think Anita Hill ought to come out for Hillary now, today.

Stopping the anti-Anita witchunt should've been "on him," Joe Biden.

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)
33. Ouch
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 04:58 PM
Aug 2015

I will be honest in saying that I did not know he was involved in that. I thought Arlen Spector was sort of the trigger-man in going after her.

Did Biden attack or question Anita? If so, then I am a bit more disappointed in him.

DURHAM D

(32,610 posts)
35. He was Judiciary committee chair.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 07:03 PM
Aug 2015

He decided not to let other women testify who had the same experience as Anita proving that Clarence was a serial sexual harasser. He allowed the other senators do beat up Anita at will.

He also would not allow testimony revealing that Clarence had no judicial experience.

Joe was afraid of being called a racist but not afraid of showing that he was a sexist. He used the excuse that Clarence's private life was his private life.

He knew Anita was telling the truth but chose to publicly humiliate her. Meanwhile, you could tell from watching the hearings (I watched every minute and still have the tapes) that Joe was totally playing to the TV audience and he loved every minute of it.

It was disgusting.

Note: Joe was anti-abortion/choice for many many years. Don't know when he changed but would guess it was because of the blow back from the hearings.

karynnj

(59,504 posts)
13. your post is the picture of entitlement
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 09:06 AM
Aug 2015

Both this time and last, HRC has been almost handed the nomination on a silver platter. If she can't win the nomination starting where she is, frankly she is not a good campaigner.

There have been others who came close and lost who did not get second chances - including Gore and Kerry.

I think the nominee will be HRC and that is why. I am so angered by her email practices. As to people not voting if it is not her isn't that hypocritical when you also correctly say that many of us who at this point don't like HRC will come out to vote for her over a Republican.

Mike Nelson

(9,959 posts)
14. What Durham D said...
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 09:43 AM
Aug 2015

...much to admire about Joe Biden, but his presiding over the of humiliation of Anita Hill is something I can't get out of my mind.

LWolf

(46,179 posts)
17. Not exactly.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 10:01 AM
Aug 2015

Now it's time to kick corporate control of our government to the curb and elect Bernie Sanders.

I don't think Biden should jump in at this point, but if he does, he'll be dividing Clinton's support, not the party, nor the GE. That's actually a good thing, so I should probably WANT him to run.

The very idea that Hillary Clinton might be "owed" a turn in the WH is repulsive, and as undemocratic as it gets.

Avalux

(35,015 posts)
18. Yes we all know - Hillary is entitled, she deserves to be president.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 10:14 AM
Aug 2015

That meme is becoming so stifling I can barely breath.

MBplayer

(73 posts)
19. Chicken little nonsense
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 10:33 AM
Aug 2015

I love the posturing by the Clinton camp as the cries for Biden to enter grow louder. It's beyond transparent, and not threatening in the least. But it's good attempt that is logical at this point in time.

We were 'divided' in 2008. As a result it made our nominee stronger, making the general election child's play for President Obama.

Regardless of who you support, we need an open, honest primary, not a coronation.

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
23. So, basically you're saying it's Hillary's turn.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 12:32 PM
Aug 2015

I'd rather vote someone who cares about the issues I care about - not just because it's their turn.

The Republicans do that.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
24. Joe is a good and decent man who should do as he wants.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 12:38 PM
Aug 2015

Joe is a good and decent man who should do as he wants. That being said I will still support HRC and I suspect most of her supporters will stay with her as well.

oasis

(49,389 posts)
27. Hillary's campaign is humming along fairly well.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 01:33 PM
Aug 2015

Joe has NO chance of chipping away at her staunch group of supporters and contributors.

winter is coming

(11,785 posts)
28. This sounds suspiciously like "everyone should just get out of the way for Hillary."
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:20 PM
Aug 2015

No. If she's that overwhelmingly amazing, it shouldn't matter who else is running. Hinting that people should step aside for Hillary or risk fracturing the party are just admitting that she doesn't have universal appeal.

30. So Clinton supporters are sensitive to labels of racism.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:28 PM
Aug 2015

That is interesting considering the events of the past month. Biden can run if he wants but I don't see why he is an improvement over Hillary. He's a bit less of a hawk but a bit more of a drug warrior, and neither is all that compelling from a financial regulation perspective.

Shrek

(3,981 posts)
32. Question about your 4th paragraph
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 04:24 PM
Aug 2015
Part of the reason Hillary's 17 million primary voters came home was that it was implied the Clintons would get their due in return, knowing full well Hillary's presidential ambitions were likely not over.


Do you have an evidentiary basis for this assertion, or is this your own take on it?

Thanks.

Yupster

(14,308 posts)
43. I feel like the Clintons have already gotten plenty
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 04:52 AM
Aug 2015

Thy seem to do a very good job of taking care of themselves and their friends.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
39. more like the candidate who can best win and less party division
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 04:04 AM
Aug 2015

Biden is a gaffe machine with no new electoral votes or constituency. Money and a network helps too: the Clintons have it, Joe doesn't.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
40. 2008 was a long primary that wasn't decided until June
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 04:14 AM
Aug 2015

And it also had the highest percentage of the vote for the Democratic nominee since 1964. A coronation doesn't help us.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
41. it took a lot to unite the party, and
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 04:33 AM
Aug 2015

As 2008 two-way GE contest with no centrist 3rd party: of course Obama got the "highest percentage of the vote since 1964." Its a shame you're implicitly using the Perot-myth GOP-originated talking point, which now debunked more times than ever, means that were Perot not in 1992, at least according to empirical data, Clinton would've approached against an incumbent with 37% approvals what Obama could only do against an incumbent with 25% approvals. (Both approvals are low enough to swap parties in the WH, but II's was much lower). Obama should've at least had Reagan's 10% margin of victory. In 1920, Harding, the year's equivalent to Obama in that the incumbent, who was closely re-elected, was highly unpopular, actually had a massive landslide. Hillary actually polled better against McCain as late as June 2008 and would've probably gotten more EV than Obama. And in 1996, Clinton would've gotten way higher than Obama did in 2008 or 2012 if Perot had stayed out. But Clinton still had a much higher margin of victory (8.5% in 1996) for re-election than Obama's 3.9% in 2012. Obama was the first winning incumbent since 1944 to have a smaller margin of victory the second time than the first both in the EC and popular vote margin.

And peddling the Perot-myth is another smear/insult Clinton supporters from 2008 have not forgotten.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
42. My point wasn't about 1992
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 04:42 AM
Aug 2015

But if you like focusing on 1992, Bill Clinton lost 10 of the first 11 primaries. That definitely wasn't a coronation.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
44. the Dems had no-names at the start of the 1992 primary: we have a huge name today.
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 04:59 AM
Aug 2015

and a huge name with electability who beats all the Republicans and serious non-Quinnipiac polls and adds states which the previous nominee lose. In 1992, the party was still scarred from the 24 year wilderness Nixon sent the Democratic Party into so it didn't make sense to defer to any one person as it does today.

Also, this "highest percentage of the vote" thing as if it makes Obama's election results any "better" than Clinton is wrong because its an obvious allusion to the Perot-myth, something that ought to be unacceptable in Democratic circles, ignores the sheer mathematics behind having 3 candidates (if a Perot-like candidate had been in 2008 and had drawn 5, or even 4 million from both candidates, Obama would've still won but with less than 50%: would that become an "unachievement" like is insinuated against the Clintons?) used for one reason only: to downplay the importance and achievement of the Clintons elections. A better way to compare them could be percentage of 2-party vote, given how Perot was a wash, margin of victory movement, or addition of new states to the Democrat formula. I've mentioned before the states Bill Clinton gave our party that we didn't have often or at all from 1968-1988, but are now part of the Blue Wall Bill Built.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
45. Let's see
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 05:12 AM
Aug 2015

First of all Carter won in 1976. The Democrats had the House from 1954-1994. The Democrats were going to win 1992 regardless of their nominee, and yes also regardless of whether Perot ran. Bush's approval rating was in the 30s. Presidents just don't get elected with those numbers. And 1992 had the governor of a state with over 10x the popular of Clinton's running, not exactly that obscure.

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