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MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:03 PM Aug 2015

When it comes to the Democratic Primaries, I'm an observer

primarily. I like Bernie Sanders best, and will caucus for him in Minnesota, but I'm not really being all that vocal on DU about my support for him. Why? Because I don't think he'll be the nominee. I think he won't even come close and will be out of the race no later than Super Tuesday (March 1).

I'm observing all of this early primary stuff, like I do every four years. I'm watching the Republican clown car and the more serious candidates for the Democratic nomination, trying to look at the races from a perspective of having watched primary races since the 1960 election.

I'm seeing a lot of commentary that appears to be based on wishful thinking, rather than on evidence. That's only natural. People have their favorites and hope for the best. I'd love to see Sanders as the nominee, and think he just might win if he has constant, strong support from people like Barack Obama and other prominent Democrats.

I think the nominee will be Hillary Clinton, based on the polling and on my own instincts and experience. If I'm right, she will have wholehearted support from Obama, the entire Democratic Congressional caucus and of Democrats everywhere. What will that mean? That will mean she wins going away against Jeb Bush, who is almost certain to be the Republican nominee. Going away, three lengths ahead of Bush. Why Jeb Bush? He's the choice of the GOP mainstream. He has the money. He will get the nomination by being the least controversial candidate in a race dominated in the public eye by crazy-talking clowns.

Clinton's support from Obama will play a huge role, and he will be very generous with his praise and campaigning. Would he be as enthusiastic for Sanders? I don't know. He'd endorse him and probably do some campaigning, but not as much, I think, as for Hillary Clinton.

That's my prediction. It's based on my experience, poll-watching, and my gut-sense of how things will go. Could I be wrong? Well, of course I could. Will I be wrong? I doubt it very much. I'm proceeding on the basis of what I think, so you're not going to see me making negative statements about Clinton. Not a chance.

My neck is stretched out. The broadaxes are raised. Swing away.



40 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
When it comes to the Democratic Primaries, I'm an observer (Original Post) MineralMan Aug 2015 OP
Oh, no axe for you. You have one opinion - your own. djean111 Aug 2015 #1
If you really believe Bernie has a snowball's chance in hell, why caucus for him? whatchamacallit Aug 2015 #2
The caucuses in Minnesota are my chance to support MineralMan Aug 2015 #9
I got no ax to grind MM TexasProgresive Aug 2015 #3
Very well stated. Lil Missy Aug 2015 #4
As a Californian, I don't vote until June. Agnosticsherbet Aug 2015 #5
I don't necessarily disagree....but n8dogg83 Aug 2015 #6
Walker may be the Koch's darling, but there are MineralMan Aug 2015 #10
I think that's a pretty good prognostication. Adrahil Aug 2015 #7
Regrettably, I think you're right. Hillary has the money and the establishment behind her. Tierra_y_Libertad Aug 2015 #8
It may look this way to you, but sadoldgirl Aug 2015 #11
If your right Robbins Aug 2015 #12
If Clinton is the nominee, I think you will see the shrinking of the Democratic Party Skwmom Aug 2015 #13
K&R mcar Aug 2015 #14
So should people decide to caucus for someone because they 'think' they'll win? elleng Aug 2015 #15
I think people should caucus for or MineralMan Aug 2015 #20
I'm with you. I'm a Sanders supporter but I will neither be shocked nor inconsolably griefstricken Attorney in Texas Aug 2015 #16
+1 NCTraveler Aug 2015 #19
It's based on my experience,..... NCTraveler Aug 2015 #17
Thanks for this.... BooScout Aug 2015 #18
Take a look at this: KoKo Aug 2015 #21
In 1965, I drove a 1952 Chrysler New Yorker MineralMan Aug 2015 #22
Might be a good time to talk about it...for those of us who missed it.... KoKo Aug 2015 #24
I doubt it would be that interesting to anyone in small pieces, MineralMan Aug 2015 #27
So... KoKo Aug 2015 #30
No. USAF Intelligence. MineralMan Aug 2015 #32
At this point in our lives.... KoKo Aug 2015 #33
As you say, it's worthwhile to review and reflect. MineralMan Aug 2015 #35
USAF but detailed to NSA? DisgustipatedinCA Aug 2015 #34
Yes, for a few months, near the end of my enlistment. MineralMan Aug 2015 #37
Thanks. nt DisgustipatedinCA Aug 2015 #38
Why Party is important.. Peacetrain Aug 2015 #23
Why should Bernie Embrace the Errors of our Past under The Clintons? KoKo Aug 2015 #26
I wouldn't sleep on Scott Walker DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #25
He was smooth tonight, but he's their trap candidate IMO MBplayer Aug 2015 #28
IMHO , Bush lll, Rubio, and Walker would be the toughest to beat in that order. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #31
Amen to that! Peacetrain Aug 2015 #29
I am supporting Hillary because she has the experience and ability to be president. Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #36
No mention of Biden? zipplewrath Aug 2015 #39
Yep, and people are catching on. Search Van Jones live feed on twitter MBplayer Aug 2015 #40
 

djean111

(14,255 posts)
1. Oh, no axe for you. You have one opinion - your own.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:06 PM
Aug 2015

I do adore the OPs that start out with "I support Bernie, BUT".

whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)
2. If you really believe Bernie has a snowball's chance in hell, why caucus for him?
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:10 PM
Aug 2015

Why not just cut to the chase and support Hillary? Also, who isn't an observer?

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
9. The caucuses in Minnesota are my chance to support
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:39 PM
Aug 2015

the candidate I like the best. So that's what I'll do. That's what I always do. Why wouldn't I?

TexasProgresive

(12,157 posts)
3. I got no ax to grind MM
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:10 PM
Aug 2015

I was thinking of starting a thread here that I am neutral so far. I tend to avoid the candidate forums as well as this one. It really seems like they are a waste of space as nothing anyone writes is changing the minds of anyone in the other camp. They certainly don't do it for me and I am undecided. I will probably make up my mind in the week before the primary.

Lil Missy

(17,865 posts)
4. Very well stated.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:14 PM
Aug 2015

I, too, see a lot of wishful thinking based on very little to no evidence. I try not to get in back-and-forths about it because I do admire the passion, and I love Bernie. I simply see another candidate as better qualified.

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
5. As a Californian, I don't vote until June.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:16 PM
Aug 2015

Unless things get really wierd, I agree that the primary campaign will be decided by March.

In California, the primaries for state and federal offics are critical.

We need to elect a President to stop the most egrigous legislative policy initiatives that Republicans will pass.

We need to retake House and Seante Seats or, even with the best possible candiate, 2017 - 2020 will just replay of the last six years.

n8dogg83

(248 posts)
6. I don't necessarily disagree....but
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:17 PM
Aug 2015

I don't think Jeb Bush will be the repub nominee. If you look at most polls recently, Scott Walker usually comes in 2nd to the Donald. Once Trump is out of the running, i think Scott Walker will end up being the nominee. He is the darling of the Koch Bros., who have pledged to spend almost a Billion dollars of their own money buying the election. Regarding Bernie, i think that the next few months will give us a better idea of his chances. He is only just starting to build up an organizing infrastructure, and there is a lot of enthusiasm among his supporters, particularly young people who haven't really had a reason to get involved since Obama in '08. I think those young folks are being overlooked and underrepresented in polls. But we will see.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
10. Walker may be the Koch's darling, but there are
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:42 PM
Aug 2015

other forces in the GOP. Walker has no chance whatever of winning in November. Bush might have a chance, so he'll be the nominee. The Koch Bros. will be wasting their money on that choice. Walker has screwed WI over just too damned far. He's a guaranteed loser.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
7. I think that's a pretty good prognostication.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:18 PM
Aug 2015

I think the data backs you up on the primaries. We'll have to see how the general goes, though I think Jeb is pretty beatable.

 

Tierra_y_Libertad

(50,414 posts)
8. Regrettably, I think you're right. Hillary has the money and the establishment behind her.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:19 PM
Aug 2015

I sincerely hope we're both wrong and Sanders pulls a magic trick.

I also think that if she wins the nomination she's not going to face a cakewalk into the White House. She's still going to be carrying a lot of unsavory baggage in that campaign.

sadoldgirl

(3,431 posts)
11. It may look this way to you, but
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:49 PM
Aug 2015

I will wait for any prediction for the debates.
I also think that Jeb may not be her opponent,
but rather Walker, who plays the fiddle for the
religious right as well as for the Koch brothers
financial interests.
If I am right in that then HRC will have a much
more difficult time.
Trump is in this to make Walker tolerable.
Just my opinion.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
12. If your right
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 03:54 PM
Aug 2015

I will be leaving DU march 1.I will not support useless corporate dems anymore.I will stay home in november for first time since i become registed to vote in 1992.It doesn't matter to me if hillary or any republican wins on trade,keystone,war,and social safety net
there is no difference.

Skwmom

(12,685 posts)
13. If Clinton is the nominee, I think you will see the shrinking of the Democratic Party
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 04:11 PM
Aug 2015

and an increase in the number of Independents. Americans are fed up and once the ads about the Clinton Foundation, the Swiss bank deal, etc. are hammered home to the American public, it is going to not only hurt Clinton's numbers but the Democratic Party.

Will Obama and other Democrats want to be out there defending the Clintons and risk being tarnished with the same brush?







elleng

(130,974 posts)
15. So should people decide to caucus for someone because they 'think' they'll win?
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 04:54 PM
Aug 2015


Because they have money on a horse race, or support the candidate they think is best?

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
20. I think people should caucus for or
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 07:46 PM
Aug 2015

Vote in the Primary for the candidate they prefer. But, they should do so with the recognition that that candidate may well not prevail. In November, voting is really a binary choice. I am a Democrat. That's my choice, and I will vote for the Democrat. That's the only thing that makes sense to me.

I've lived through several Republican administrations. I don't want another, thanks.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
16. I'm with you. I'm a Sanders supporter but I will neither be shocked nor inconsolably griefstricken
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:03 PM
Aug 2015

if my general election ballot only gives me the choice between Clinton or Bush. I will happily vote for Clinton if it come to that (and I suspect that it likely will).

As I mentioned in another thread, I am a big fan of Elizabeth Warren; I hoped she would run.

I am a big fan of Bernie Sanders; after my disappointment that Warren chose not to run, I was very relieved that Sanders decided to run.

If there was a candidate to the left of Sanders or Warren, I'd jump ship from the Sanders campaign to climb on board with the more liberal campaign.

The fact that I am a Warren-Sanders-and-Leftward type Democrat should tell you that my political views are not only left of the US mainstream, but left of the mainstream within the Democratic Party.

I accept this fact. I'm even proud of this fact.

One consequence of this fact, however, is the reality that my preferred candidate rarely wins the nomination.

I wish this were not true, but it is.

The second consequence is that I am usually voting in the general election for a less liberal Democratic nominee than the candidate who I supported in the primary.

I did not support President Obama in the early stages of the 2008 primary, or Kerry in the early stages of the 2004 primary, or Gore in the early stages of the 2000 primary, or Clinton in the early stages of 1992 primary.

In each election, our Party's nominee was less liberal than I would have preferred, but I was proud to work for (and vote for) each of our nominees.

This is not surprising because you cannot hold out-of-the-mainstream values (I like to think "better-than-mainstream" values) and then be shocked when the party's mainstream votes for a candidate whose views are more mainstream than the candidate who shares your "better-of-the mainstream" views.

Let's fight to get Sanders nominated. If those of us who share Sanders' values are disappointed in that goal and Clinton gets nominated, let's not pretend that we are willing to stand by while Walker or Bush or whatever charlatan the Republicans nominate gets elected.

Instead, let's fight for the most liberal nominee and then for the best President. Hopefully, we'll get to vote for Sanders twice, but even if not, we'll still get to vote for the best candidate on the ballot twice.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
19. +1
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:19 PM
Aug 2015

Nothing to add. Just enjoyed reading it. Keep pulling us left. I have been on a leftward trend my whole life.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
17. It's based on my experience,.....
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:12 PM
Aug 2015

...., and my gut-sense...."

Your gut-sense is deeply rooted in common sense. Appreciate your thought sharing posts.

BooScout

(10,406 posts)
18. Thanks for this....
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:18 PM
Aug 2015

I respect your choice of candidate and your decision to caucus for him. I also agree with your assessment of the reality of the political situation. This has been refreshing hearing a genuine voice on the primaries and the eventual likely outcome.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
21. Take a look at this:
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 07:59 PM
Aug 2015

Given your Age Group I wonder why you never mention the Tumult of that Time in our History?

Anyway....just passing this along not only for the OP but for someone who is close enough in age to you to wonder why you leave out so much of that time and how it might have affected you:

Bernie Sanders, Dr. King, and the Triple Evils

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016129217

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
22. In 1965, I drove a 1952 Chrysler New Yorker
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:09 PM
Aug 2015

That I paid $100 for from California to Alabama, arriving just in time to stand and listen to Dr. King give the "How long?" speech. I had just dropped out of college, so I decided to do that. I was a 19 year old white kid, far out of my comfort zone. I learned a great deal on that journey.

I've mentioned that here before, and saw no reason to bring it up in this thread. That I do not provide my life history in every post does not mean I don't have a relevant one.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
24. Might be a good time to talk about it...for those of us who missed it....
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:18 PM
Aug 2015

All I know is that you went into the Military...and worked in intelligence or related? Was it the Navy?

I think it would be interesting to know--your personal journey.

But, still, a synopsis of your journey could still be valuable to post here.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
27. I doubt it would be that interesting to anyone in small pieces,
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:30 PM
Aug 2015

and would take far more space than there is here. I have a book length manuscript of that long story. I'll probably finish it in the next couple of years. I'll let you know when it's available. It's full of history, people you'd recognize by name, and covers territory in every state and many countries.

It'll be done one day, before I'm done. You might find it interesting. I know I did while living it.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
30. So...
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:34 PM
Aug 2015

I'm not off the mark...Navy...intelligence?

If that is what it is...it should be a fascinating read.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
32. No. USAF Intelligence.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:45 PM
Aug 2015

They sent me off to a total immersion Russian Language school, then put me to work. That was interesting, but still classified. Late 1965-69. One small segment of my life. How I got there and where I went from there are other small segments, too. Everything connects in some way to everything else.

During that four year period, I met both Richard Nixon and Abby Hoffman, lived in Turkey, protested at the Pentagon and did many other strange things. Everything connects to everything else.

Life's interesting. Not always significant, by interesting.

KoKo

(84,711 posts)
33. At this point in our lives....
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:57 PM
Aug 2015

Retrospection of this is important....and what we do with it as we move forward..hopefully with Wisdom..imho...

As you say and I reflect myself --how interesting that is to live long enough to "connect the dots" and also look for the missing pieces that maybe don't connect but "guided." It can become quite spiritual looking back. As you say:

One small segment of my life. How I got there and where I went from there are other small segments, too. Everything connects in some way to everything else.


Everything connects to everything else.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
35. As you say, it's worthwhile to review and reflect.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 09:14 PM
Aug 2015

I'm fortunate enough to have been born with an almost eidetic memory, and can replay incidents and conversations from the past almost verbatim. It's a blessing and a curse. It's given me many opportunities, but also means remembering unpleasant things in vivid detail, too.

My life has been eventful, but insignificant as well. I've done a lot, but have made no history. I've simply observed and participated as things presented themselves. I'm happy with my life, because it was what I chose it to be. I might have chosen different paths many times, but took the ones I wanted to take.

I suppose I should tie it all together and see what I conclude from that. If it becomes public, others will make their own assessments, I suppose.

In the end, it was my life to live, and I lived it. Fun times.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
37. Yes, for a few months, near the end of my enlistment.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 09:20 PM
Aug 2015

I did nothing of any significance there. I did get to observe a lot, though. Then I left when my enlistment ended. I've mentioned that before, too. During that time, I was also active in anti-war activities in the DC area. Very active.

Peacetrain

(22,877 posts)
23. Why Party is important..
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:15 PM
Aug 2015

At first I was going to op on this..but probably one a day from me is more than enough .. so reading what you had to say.. I think I will put it in here..

MM.. Bernie Sanders has a lot of wonderful ideas.. I am supporting Martin O'Malley..because basically that is where my heart is..in the more liberal wings..

But I have been a Democrat all my life.. and Democrats are all over the place.. unified by our party platform..

Being a Democrat is like being in a union.. There is good and bad and you don't walk away from it, but try to improve it, because in the end we are all better for being unified as Democrats.

Bernie Sanders is an Independent, and I think if he would embrace the party he is running to try and head up, his chances would be a lot better..



KoKo

(84,711 posts)
26. Why should Bernie Embrace the Errors of our Past under The Clintons?
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:24 PM
Aug 2015

We need a New Direction. We gave Obama his chance and he couldn't do it....Maybe the Democratically leaning Socialist can finally PRY THE DEM PARTY from it's CORPORATISTS/WALL STREET...the MIC?

Give BERNIE a CHANCE! Because if Hillary's "Joyless Campaign" (according to one of her insiders) FAILS.... then we end up with BUSH III or Worse. And, I'm not fond of Clinton III considering what I know that Clinton didn't VETO while he was fighting off the RW Monica Stuff whose perpetrators he gave a EULOGY for at HIS FUNERAL! Richard Mellon Scaife!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
25. I wouldn't sleep on Scott Walker
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:21 PM
Aug 2015

He's the only Republican who has one foot in the GOP "crazy" and "not crazy" camp.

MBplayer

(73 posts)
28. He was smooth tonight, but he's their trap candidate IMO
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:32 PM
Aug 2015

if he's on the GOP ticket, it will result in a much higher turnout on our side. Don't piss off the unions!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
31. IMHO , Bush lll, Rubio, and Walker would be the toughest to beat in that order.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:34 PM
Aug 2015

That being said I still like our hand better.

Peacetrain

(22,877 posts)
29. Amen to that!
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:33 PM
Aug 2015

Sitting in Iowa.. I have seen how he can manipulate people and the press.. and he has the huge backing of the Kochs..It will be very scary if he gets the republican nod

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
36. I am supporting Hillary because she has the experience and ability to be president.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 09:19 PM
Aug 2015

She has worked hard in her life advocating for civil rights, women's rights, children's rights and equality in pay. She has foreign experience and judging from her past she will work hard as president.

MBplayer

(73 posts)
40. Yep, and people are catching on. Search Van Jones live feed on twitter
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 09:49 PM
Aug 2015

Getting scorched by a lot of African Americans right now after saying "I just don't see space for him (Joe) in our party" (referring to primaries)

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