2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFOX: Clinton-51%, Sanders-22%
Here's the poll:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/08/03/poll-new-high-for-trump-new-low-for-clinton/
I haven't looks at the demo or sample details yet, but here's the quickie analysis.
Bernie inches up a few points (Fox has typically had Bernie polling a bit higher than others), but the big news is that Hillary shed 8 points poll-to-poll. Biden snags some of that, it appears, in poll over poll numbers. Don;t read too much into that, though, since his last numbers were unusually low, and Hillary has been polling up near 60 with Fox, which is higher than others too.
If the demo and sample numbers aren't outrageous, this would support a tightening of the race to about 30 points.... tigher than most other polls show, show we'll have to see if the trend holds up or not.
Fox News/Anderson is almost exactly in the middle of 538's quality ratings. Not great, but not terrible, but their poll doesn't look far out of line (excpet for Hillary/Biden numbers) with previous polling by them, so even if the numbers are a bit off, the trend is probably not too in accurate, though we'll have to see if their Hillary/Biden number holds up in later polls.
The First Choice/Second Choice numbers still look good for Clinton (combined topping out at 76), and not so much for Sanders (37). Without Biden, Clinton is first choice of 61%, and Sanders first for 23. If Biden does NOT run, that mean most Biden supporters are throwing in their lot with Clinton.... not good news for Bernie.
K lib
(153 posts)To do a purposely half-assed job and not ask more questions about the Democratic Primary as far if they want more info on the Democratic Candidates or Dont Know.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Which is annoying. But we do get first choice/second choice numbers which are often pretty revealing in terms of of support ceilings. Those numbers imply Nernie has an uphill battle on his hands. But we really need more data.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)Sweet
qazplm
(3,626 posts)I think unless you see Bernie over 30, or Hillary under 40, it's still hers to win. If you see either, then she's in big trouble.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Sort of good news for Bernie I suppose, depending on how you look at it. A CBS News poll had Clinton 42, Obama 19 at this point in 2007. The only difference is Obama had a pathway to chip away minorities from Clinton, not sure if that's going to be the case for Sanders-- they're just too loyal to her right now. Hopefully its a nameID thing.
Not sure what this poll means for Clinton... the trend is bad, but not bad enough... yet.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)But there is a good chance he replaces Sanders in second place if he runs. Clinton's numbers are definitely weakening, but she is still very strong.
If Biden runs, we COULD have something that looks more like the 2007 primary at this point.
If he doesn't this poll suggest the beneficiary is Clinton.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)They're good in the sense that Clinton isn't running away with it and seems to be on the decline, not sure how far that decline will go though.
For someone who isn't running they're ok numbers such that I think the media narrative and the feeling of the party if he runs for President has shifted from "Joe, wtf do you think you're doing?" to "Ok, you might as well give it a shot if you want Joe" Which is also a good thing.
Also, poor O'Malley