2016 Postmortem

ram2008

(1,238 posts) Fri Aug 21, 2015, 03:46 PM Aug 2015

Shocking Michigan Poll: Trump 40%, Clinton 39%

Released today: Trump up 1, Rubio up 9, Jeb up 1.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_MI_Press_Release_8-20-15_Rubio_Prez_Final.pdf

Michigan is a must win state for Democrats if we want to hold onto the White House. How in the world is Trump ahead by a point in what should be solid blue territory?

I'm not sure if its because Clinton is such a bad candidate or if its because people actually think Trump should be president? That seems insane.

21 replies

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Highlight:

Shocking Michigan Poll: Trump 40%, Clinton 39% (Original Post) ram2008 Aug 2015 OP

Costa Rica Cali_Democrat Aug 2015 #1

Save me a cabana by the beach. SonderWoman Aug 2015 #7

Rubio is the big winner. DURHAM D Aug 2015 #2

According to Nate Silver Mitchel is R +3.5 which places totodeinhere Aug 2015 #9

It was conducted before the first debate. Juicy_Bellows Aug 2015 #3

"Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both get 12% of the Democratic vote while Trump gets 15%" bunnies Aug 2015 #4

Too bad they don't seem to include Bernie in these polls WI_DEM Aug 2015 #5

Michigan is a classic blue collar swing state NYCButterfinger Aug 2015 #6

Ugh vadermike Aug 2015 #8

Check post #10, pollster is a joke. phleshdef Aug 2015 #11

Mitchell Research poll... showed Romney winning Michigan in 2012. phleshdef Aug 2015 #10

It did not ram2008 Aug 2015 #12

I should have said "at one point". phleshdef Aug 2015 #13

Still, this poll is terrifying, even if it is off by 5-10 points. nt stevenleser Aug 2015 #14

Not really, polls don't mean much right now. phleshdef Aug 2015 #17

They do when you are trying to find the best candidate to field in the general. nt Joe the Revelator Aug 2015 #19

Really? Are you aware as to how Obama looked in the general at this point in 2007? phleshdef Aug 2015 #20

they didn't release their demographics, so you can't judge them CreekDog Aug 2015 #21

just like Romney in 2012 ericson00 Aug 2015 #15

Hmm, Macomb Country, which went to Obama in 2012 by 5%, now has all R candidates ahead by 43% Godhumor Aug 2015 #16

Mitchell is a D grade GOP partisan pollster. Dawson Leery Aug 2015 #18

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)

1. Costa Rica

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 03:49 PM

Aug 2015

is looking better and better.

SonderWoman

(1,169 posts)

7. Save me a cabana by the beach.

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:11 PM

Aug 2015

DURHAM D

(32,610 posts)

2. Rubio is the big winner.

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 03:55 PM

Aug 2015

Mitchell is a Republican pollster and has a reputation for polling until he gets the results he wants.

totodeinhere

(13,058 posts)

9. According to Nate Silver Mitchel is R +3.5 which places

Reply to DURHAM D (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:22 PM

Aug 2015

it in about the middle of the pack. When factoring in their 3.5% pro-Republican bias that still leaves Trump vs Clinton within the statistical margin of error in Michigan.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/

Juicy_Bellows

(2,427 posts)

3. It was conducted before the first debate.

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 03:56 PM

Aug 2015

Last edited Fri Aug 21, 2015, 05:01 PM - Edit history (1)

That probably plays a role somewhat and I don't see mention of Sanders, was he included?

bunnies

(15,859 posts)

4. "Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both get 12% of the Democratic vote while Trump gets 15%"

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 03:56 PM

Aug 2015

What. The. Fuck.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

5. Too bad they don't seem to include Bernie in these polls

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:07 PM

Aug 2015

I would be interested in seeing how he would do in these match-ups. P.S. I believe Mitchell doesn't have a good reputation and it would be good to see the internals.

NYCButterfinger

(755 posts)

6. Michigan is a classic blue collar swing state

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:09 PM

Aug 2015

Trump plays beautifully there. Reagan Democrats, Macomb County, Farmington Hills. It's gonna be contested. Period. Former Gov. Jennifer Granholm can help there as a surrogate.

vadermike

(1,415 posts)

8. Ugh

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:14 PM

Aug 2015

Omg this is mind blowing Dems have won since 92 this state !! Wtf

phleshdef

(11,936 posts)

11. Check post #10, pollster is a joke.

Reply to vadermike (Reply #8)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:27 PM

Aug 2015

phleshdef

(11,936 posts)

10. Mitchell Research poll... showed Romney winning Michigan in 2012.

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:26 PM

Aug 2015

Obama carried the state by almost 10 points.

538 rates them as a C, which isn't good.

ram2008

(1,238 posts)

12. It did not

Reply to phleshdef (Reply #10)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:34 PM

Aug 2015

Mitchell showed Obama up 5 in Michigan in line with what the average was:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls

C is pretty Middle of the pack as far as pollsters Nate rates.

phleshdef

(11,936 posts)

13. I should have said "at one point".

Reply to ram2008 (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:45 PM

Aug 2015

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125159776

"Middle of the pack" is terrible. And their final poll showed Obama winning by nearly half of what we actually won by.

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)

14. Still, this poll is terrifying, even if it is off by 5-10 points. nt

Reply to phleshdef (Reply #13)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:48 PM

Aug 2015

phleshdef

(11,936 posts)

17. Not really, polls don't mean much right now.

Reply to stevenleser (Reply #14)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 05:25 PM

Aug 2015

I'm a Bernie supporter anyway but I don't take any general election poll before labor day, 2016, with much seriousness.

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)

19. They do when you are trying to find the best candidate to field in the general. nt

Reply to phleshdef (Reply #17)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 11:39 PM

Aug 2015

phleshdef

(11,936 posts)

20. Really? Are you aware as to how Obama looked in the general at this point in 2007?

Reply to Joe the Revelator (Reply #19)

Sat Aug 22, 2015, 01:30 AM

Aug 2015

CreekDog

(46,192 posts)

21. they didn't release their demographics, so you can't judge them

Reply to ram2008 (Reply #12)

Sat Aug 22, 2015, 01:41 AM

Aug 2015

not only that, in regards to 2012, the bad pollsters frequently put out bogus polls, then near the election, put out more plausible numbers so that they don't look like outliers.

pretty obvious game.

ericson00

(2,707 posts)

15. just like Romney in 2012

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:51 PM

Aug 2015

which is the kind of record this pollster has.

First news stories, news channels, and polls; all no longer the objective things they're supposed to be, but skewed tools for partisans. Arghhh

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

16. Hmm, Macomb Country, which went to Obama in 2012 by 5%, now has all R candidates ahead by 43%

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 04:57 PM

Aug 2015

And according to the release, Republicans are dominating every single area in Michigan outside of Detroit (They're even dominating Wayne County outside Detroit proper).

Shame they haven't release questions or sample demographics, because this implies a massive shift.

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)

18. Mitchell is a D grade GOP partisan pollster.

Reply to ram2008 (Original post)

Fri Aug 21, 2015, 10:43 PM

Aug 2015

They had Mittens ahead in Michigan until the last week when they had Obama ahead by only half of his final 10 point margin.

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