2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum2016: The Coming Train Wreck
by Robert Kuttner
Huffpo Blog
8/23/2015
Six months ago, the 2016 election looked to be predictable and boring: Clinton II vs. Bush III. Advantage: Clinton.
Well, forget about that.
The Republican demolition derby has been getting most of the publicity lately, but one should worry more about the Democrats. Consider:
Hillary Clinton is sinking like a stone. She's falling in the polls. Conversations with her longtime friends and admirers indicate grave worry. She is not generating the excitement that the first prospective woman president should; the email mess is not going away; even the money advantage is not what was anticipated.
...Major SNIP....
A toss-up election will turn entirely on who is nominated by each major party -- and how badly they are damaged along the way. A Kasich-Rubio Republican ticket, for instance, would spell big trouble for almost any Democrat. Even a Bush-Kasich ticket would be strong.
On the Democratic side, I have long thought that a badly wounded Clinton might lead to a scenario in which a reluctant Elizabeth Warren agrees to run. Despite the much exaggerated "schoolmarm" critique, Warren has a terrific capacity to connect with regular people, and she has only gotten better with time and experience. I believe Warren would be a formidable national candidate -- a more electable version of Sanders.
If Biden gets in, however, Warren as late entry becomes even less plausible. His confidential meeting with her, leaked by the Biden camp, was an obvious effort to associate himself with her appeal, solicit her support, and determine whether she really means it when she says she won't run.
Biden, as noted, is a good guy. But he's no Elizabeth Warren.
To sum up: The 2016 Republican field is more of a Mutually-Assured-Destruction mess than any in my long lifetime. It's not only much too big, but far to the right of American public opinion....
Full opinion piece~
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-kuttner/2016-the-coming-train-wre_b_8028320.html
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Populist cage match in 2016.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)And Sanders would take it.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Please.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)Please.
MisterP
(23,730 posts)pipoman
(16,038 posts)Those who haven't been in the country for an election would think such a thing.
Six months ago, the 2016 election looked to be predictable and boring: Clinton II vs. Bush III. Advantage: Clinton.
I can't remember an election season 1 (or 2) years out with so many naive and unrealistic perceptions of what 2016 will look like floating around...
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)pipoman
(16,038 posts)Or maybe he was having writers block....
I don't recall an election without several wildcards in the lead up to Iowa, then even more between Iowa and November....
Vinca
(50,310 posts)This morning I added the poll percentages of the crazier GOP candidates to Trump's since they are likely to start dropping like flies. Conservatively (no pun intended), it came to 55%. The small percentage of normal people in the Republican Party need to face facts: it's not Ike's party anymore.
Renew Deal
(81,877 posts)Last edited Mon Aug 24, 2015, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)
August doesn't count, and I still think one of the mainstream favorites will emerge on the republican side. That's Bush, Rubio, Kasich, etc. Bush still has the most important tools (money, people, establishment support). He is still tough to beat, especially if they can get under 10 candidates.
For Democrats, the "sinking like a stone" stuff is a delusion.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Bush will probably get the nom. Clinton too. If for no other reason then super delegates.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)but the trend right now is clearly down, down, down for Hillary.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary
I tend to agree about Bush. The one thing different now are all the comments from Trump about him. Calling him a loser and saying he is terrible and a person without any energy are just attack ads waiting to be made. Even if JEB wins the nomination, he is not going to be in a very strong position. He will look like another Romney. Someone the establishment wanted but the base doesn't like.
Renew Deal
(81,877 posts)He may have it locked up for the GE. That's a lot of electoral votes. We're better off not running against him or Rubio.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)I think that is why Kasich is the RNC plan B. If they can't lock up Fl with Bush they will try to lock up OH with Kasich.
If we get either one of those we should be able to win.
demwing
(16,916 posts)Just presumes Sanders has electability issues despite his drawing huge crowds in every state he visits, and without regard to his steadily climbing poll numbers.
This "conventional wisdom" is all convention and no wisdom.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)I'm sorry. I'm definitely in the Sanders camp(or O'Malley), but admittedly its by default. And I hope everyone is surprised when Bernie kicks a** in the primaries!
demwing
(16,916 posts)Not at all at you, RiverLover, no apologies required!
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)and overestimates reason in the R party voter.
That man is a fascist, and stirs up fear and anger
in a frustrated electorate. There is a quote I read
somewhere about fascism coming to the US, and
the situation right now seems to make it possible.
Zorra
(27,670 posts)The sooner she ends her campaign and bid for the nomination, the sooner we can all focus on serious candidates who can beat republicans.
With Clinton out of the race, Sanders and O'Malley can mix it up in serious debates and discuss real issues, without having to wade through neoliberal bullshit.
LannyDeVaney
(1,033 posts)you honestly can't believe that right? You don't think she's a serious candidate?
I think it's safe to say that right now, she is the favorite to be our next POTUS.
Someone leading the polls has less chance than a snowball in hell, and is not a serious candidate.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)I agree with that. You heard it here, folks.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)We were on the long, boring, YYYAAAAWWWWNNNN campaign up to three moths ago.