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RiverLover

(7,830 posts)
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 08:14 AM Aug 2015

2016: The Coming Train Wreck

2016: The Coming Train Wreck
by Robert Kuttner
Huffpo Blog
8/23/2015

Six months ago, the 2016 election looked to be predictable and boring: Clinton II vs. Bush III. Advantage: Clinton.

Well, forget about that.

The Republican demolition derby has been getting most of the publicity lately, but one should worry more about the Democrats. Consider:

Hillary Clinton is sinking like a stone. She's falling in the polls. Conversations with her longtime friends and admirers indicate grave worry. She is not generating the excitement that the first prospective woman president should; the email mess is not going away; even the money advantage is not what was anticipated.

...Major SNIP....

A toss-up election will turn entirely on who is nominated by each major party -- and how badly they are damaged along the way. A Kasich-Rubio Republican ticket, for instance, would spell big trouble for almost any Democrat. Even a Bush-Kasich ticket would be strong.

On the Democratic side, I have long thought that a badly wounded Clinton might lead to a scenario in which a reluctant Elizabeth Warren agrees to run. Despite the much exaggerated "schoolmarm" critique, Warren has a terrific capacity to connect with regular people, and she has only gotten better with time and experience. I believe Warren would be a formidable national candidate -- a more electable version of Sanders.

If Biden gets in, however, Warren as late entry becomes even less plausible. His confidential meeting with her, leaked by the Biden camp, was an obvious effort to associate himself with her appeal, solicit her support, and determine whether she really means it when she says she won't run.

Biden, as noted, is a good guy. But he's no Elizabeth Warren.

To sum up: The 2016 Republican field is more of a Mutually-Assured-Destruction mess than any in my long lifetime. It's not only much too big, but far to the right of American public opinion....

Full opinion piece~
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-kuttner/2016-the-coming-train-wre_b_8028320.html

27 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
2016: The Coming Train Wreck (Original Post) RiverLover Aug 2015 OP
Trump v Sanders. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #1
Power to the People! That would be mind-blowing. RiverLover Aug 2015 #4
No more Clinton. No More Bush. bigwillq Aug 2015 #2
+1,000,000,000!! RiverLover Aug 2015 #3
+1 LWolf Aug 2015 #15
^^^ L0oniX Aug 2015 #24
... no more corporate boots kicking our tush MisterP Aug 2015 #27
Only to those who are not old enough to remember or pipoman Aug 2015 #5
Robert Kuttner has been around a while... RiverLover Aug 2015 #8
Maybe he is having memory problems pipoman Aug 2015 #10
They're still dismissing Trump. Vinca Aug 2015 #6
It's too early to write off Bush Renew Deal Aug 2015 #7
I agree. They wrote off Romney at this time during the 2012 campaign yeoman6987 Aug 2015 #14
More like a stone rolling down hill, not exactly sinking like a stone in water, Motown_Johnny Aug 2015 #16
The thing to fear about Jeb is Florida Renew Deal Aug 2015 #17
They still Need Ohio to win. Motown_Johnny Aug 2015 #18
"a more electable version of Sanders" demwing Aug 2015 #9
I knew this oped wouldn't be popular with both hardcore Clinton & Sander supporters. RiverLover Aug 2015 #11
My frustration is directed solely at the author demwing Aug 2015 #12
Thanks Demwing. RiverLover Aug 2015 #13
Kuttner underestimates Trump sadoldgirl Aug 2015 #19
Clinton doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the GE. Zorra Aug 2015 #20
Saying that doesn't make it true ... LannyDeVaney Aug 2015 #21
OK. Hillary has "a snowball's chance" of winning. John Poet Aug 2015 #23
Damn they must be reading my notes nadinbrzezinski Aug 2015 #22
Any Dem but Hillary gets my vote. L0oniX Aug 2015 #25
K & R !!! WillyT Aug 2015 #26
 

pipoman

(16,038 posts)
5. Only to those who are not old enough to remember or
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 08:30 AM
Aug 2015

Those who haven't been in the country for an election would think such a thing.

Six months ago, the 2016 election looked to be predictable and boring: Clinton II vs. Bush III. Advantage: Clinton. 

I can't remember an election season 1 (or 2) years out with so many naive and unrealistic perceptions of what 2016 will look like floating around...

 

pipoman

(16,038 posts)
10. Maybe he is having memory problems
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 08:38 AM
Aug 2015

Or maybe he was having writers block....

I don't recall an election without several wildcards in the lead up to Iowa, then even more between Iowa and November....

Vinca

(50,310 posts)
6. They're still dismissing Trump.
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 08:35 AM
Aug 2015

This morning I added the poll percentages of the crazier GOP candidates to Trump's since they are likely to start dropping like flies. Conservatively (no pun intended), it came to 55%. The small percentage of normal people in the Republican Party need to face facts: it's not Ike's party anymore.

Renew Deal

(81,877 posts)
7. It's too early to write off Bush
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 08:35 AM
Aug 2015

Last edited Mon Aug 24, 2015, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)

August doesn't count, and I still think one of the mainstream favorites will emerge on the republican side. That's Bush, Rubio, Kasich, etc. Bush still has the most important tools (money, people, establishment support). He is still tough to beat, especially if they can get under 10 candidates.

For Democrats, the "sinking like a stone" stuff is a delusion.

 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
14. I agree. They wrote off Romney at this time during the 2012 campaign
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 09:51 AM
Aug 2015

Bush will probably get the nom. Clinton too. If for no other reason then super delegates.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
16. More like a stone rolling down hill, not exactly sinking like a stone in water,
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 10:52 AM
Aug 2015

but the trend right now is clearly down, down, down for Hillary.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


I tend to agree about Bush. The one thing different now are all the comments from Trump about him. Calling him a loser and saying he is terrible and a person without any energy are just attack ads waiting to be made. Even if JEB wins the nomination, he is not going to be in a very strong position. He will look like another Romney. Someone the establishment wanted but the base doesn't like.


Renew Deal

(81,877 posts)
17. The thing to fear about Jeb is Florida
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 11:13 AM
Aug 2015

He may have it locked up for the GE. That's a lot of electoral votes. We're better off not running against him or Rubio.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
18. They still Need Ohio to win.
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 11:19 AM
Aug 2015

I think that is why Kasich is the RNC plan B. If they can't lock up Fl with Bush they will try to lock up OH with Kasich.

If we get either one of those we should be able to win.


 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
9. "a more electable version of Sanders"
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 08:37 AM
Aug 2015

Just presumes Sanders has electability issues despite his drawing huge crowds in every state he visits, and without regard to his steadily climbing poll numbers.

This "conventional wisdom" is all convention and no wisdom.

RiverLover

(7,830 posts)
11. I knew this oped wouldn't be popular with both hardcore Clinton & Sander supporters.
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 08:45 AM
Aug 2015

I'm sorry. I'm definitely in the Sanders camp(or O'Malley), but admittedly its by default. And I hope everyone is surprised when Bernie kicks a** in the primaries!

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
12. My frustration is directed solely at the author
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 09:12 AM
Aug 2015

Not at all at you, RiverLover, no apologies required!

sadoldgirl

(3,431 posts)
19. Kuttner underestimates Trump
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 11:32 AM
Aug 2015

and overestimates reason in the R party voter.

That man is a fascist, and stirs up fear and anger

in a frustrated electorate. There is a quote I read

somewhere about fascism coming to the US, and

the situation right now seems to make it possible.

Zorra

(27,670 posts)
20. Clinton doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the GE.
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 11:40 AM
Aug 2015

The sooner she ends her campaign and bid for the nomination, the sooner we can all focus on serious candidates who can beat republicans.

With Clinton out of the race, Sanders and O'Malley can mix it up in serious debates and discuss real issues, without having to wade through neoliberal bullshit.

 

LannyDeVaney

(1,033 posts)
21. Saying that doesn't make it true ...
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 12:21 PM
Aug 2015

you honestly can't believe that right? You don't think she's a serious candidate?

I think it's safe to say that right now, she is the favorite to be our next POTUS.

Someone leading the polls has less chance than a snowball in hell, and is not a serious candidate.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
22. Damn they must be reading my notes
Mon Aug 24, 2015, 12:41 PM
Aug 2015

We were on the long, boring, YYYAAAAWWWWNNNN campaign up to three moths ago.

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