2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Mon Aug 24, 2015, 04:49 PM Aug 2015

With all the hand-winging people are insisting those with Clinton are doing, the predictive markets

Have changed by zero percent.

Nothing over the weekend or today had changed Market odds from last week or really anything substantive since campaign season started.

So again, today's numbers as of 4:45 pm from Predictwise.com:

Chance to be Democratic Nominee
Clinton - 74%
Sanders - 11%
Biden - 10%

Which party will take the White House
Democratic - 59%
Republican - 41%

Individual Odds on being president
Clinton - 46%
Bush - 18%
Biden - 7%
Rubio, Sanders and Trump - 6%

The markets still do not believe the Clinton email "scandal" is material and that she is, by far, in the strongest position of either party.

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

With all the hand-winging people are insisting those with Clinton are doing, the predictive markets (Original Post) Godhumor Aug 2015 OP

The handwriting is on the wall and you can tell by not just this prediction but by other things. leftofcool Aug 2015 #1

would you say "inevitable"? Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #3

Expensive internals and knowing what is, or may be, about to happen matters more than the morningfog Aug 2015 #2

They can try to tear her down but Hillary is a fighter. hrmjustin Aug 2015 #4

great. I'd like to see her actually fight, then. Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #5

leftofcool

(19,460 posts)

1. The handwriting is on the wall and you can tell by not just this prediction but by other things.

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Mon Aug 24, 2015, 04:50 PM

Aug 2015

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)

3. would you say "inevitable"?

Reply to leftofcool (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 24, 2015, 04:53 PM

Aug 2015

Sounds like that's the word you're looking for.

morningfog

(18,115 posts)

2. Expensive internals and knowing what is, or may be, about to happen matters more than the

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Mon Aug 24, 2015, 04:52 PM

Aug 2015

predictive markets.

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

4. They can try to tear her down but Hillary is a fighter.

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Mon Aug 24, 2015, 05:11 PM

Aug 2015

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)

5. great. I'd like to see her actually fight, then.

Reply to hrmjustin (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 24, 2015, 06:37 PM

Aug 2015

Because if the email crap is nothing, bullshit, rw media noise-- fine, then shut it down decisively.

Trying to make snapchat jokes about it, playing dumb as to what "wipe a server means", looking all flustered and then shrugging the whole thing off. It looks bad.

It doesn't look like "fighting", it looks like John Kerry imagining the swiftboat stuff will go away if he just waits long enough.

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