2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDoes anyone really give a rats ass about a New Hamshire poll or....
or an Iowa poll...etc.
For fucks sake Pat Buchanon won New Hampshire.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)trumad
(41,692 posts)Its fricking New Hampshire.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)My Aunt lives there. When my mom visits it is Fox 24/7. Mom is a Dem. She is 89.
It is a very white conservative State. Hmmmm~
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)I would bet that Hillary takes both states no matter what the polling says. She has such a great ground game and excellent organization in both states.
cali
(114,904 posts)Love how you got Buchanan in there trying to link him with Bernie. Classy! And yes, it's obvious that's what you were doing.
By the way, Hillary also won New Hampshire.
trumad
(41,692 posts)Only you would have that takeaway....
The point I'm making is who gives a shit about little old New Hampshire and the people they favor.
I've expreessed it a thousand times here on DU my affection to Bernie Sanders. Plenty of times.
Nope....you have to make up shit ...as usual...to try and take it to me.
I see right through you Cali...always have.
Ichingcarpenter
(36,988 posts)have a hankie
DefenseLawyer
(11,101 posts)I think I've heard that somewhere before.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)elleng
(131,102 posts)the PEOPLE are meeting and learning about candidates up close and personal and the LOCAL MEDIA are REPORTING!
http://www.qconline.com/news/local/presidential-hopeful-o-malley-touts-experience-results-at-davenport-event/article_30708197-a31f-5279-826a-b2231befb911.html
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150825/OPINION02/150829657/1068/news0606
Imagine THAT!
Historic NY
(37,453 posts)Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin spoke at a number of grassroot campaign events in New Hampshire for Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton.
Gov. Shumlin, an early Clinton endorser, attended organizing meetings in Hanover, Claremont, and Peterborough to outline Clinton's New College Compact, a plan that which aims to tackle student debt.
http://www.mychamplainvalley.com/news/gov-shumlin-campaigns-for-hillary-clinton-in-nh
Genghis Khan
(13 posts)Bernie wins.
Historic NY
(37,453 posts)Genghis Khan
(13 posts)Way I heard it, it came down to the legislature to get Shumlin to win. There is no next time.
George II
(67,782 posts)Last edited Tue Aug 25, 2015, 04:22 PM - Edit history (1)
cali
(114,904 posts)It was so close it was thrown into the statehouse.
Vermonters can't stomach him. He isn't running next year because there is no way he could win an election for any office.
I've lived here for 35 years. In general, Vermonters like their elected officials. Never seen anything like the animosity Vermonters feel for him. I couldn't bring myself to vote for him last year. I had a lot of liberal company.
cali
(114,904 posts)He barely eked out a win over a guy who had never run before. It was so close that it was thrown into the statehouse which is super majority dem in both the Senate and house. Some of the loathing for ol' Scummy Shummy comes from his having cheated a disabled neighbor out of his property, but there's a lot more to it. He had hoped to run for the senate, but the guy couldn't get elected dog catcher in Vermont now. He's gunning for a job in a Clinton admin.
Bernie is far and away the most liked politician in Vermont and Shumlin is by far the most disliked
George II
(67,782 posts)So how did Sanders do in his two runs for Governor? And then his two runs for Senator?
As far as "barely eking out a win", Sanders won his FIRST election (after losing four times previously, getting about 5% or less each time) by a huge margin of TEN votes!
The "Most liked politician in Vermont" is Patrick Leahy, who won his last election for Senate with 89% of the vote!! And who was one of his defeated opponents when he was first elected to the Senate? None other than Bernard Sanders.
By the way, while we're on the subject of DEMOCRATIC politicians from Vermont, a little known fact is that Bernie Sanders won the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 2006, but he REFUSED it! A good indication of the respect he had/has for the Democratic Party, until he needed it this year.
cali
(114,904 posts)You don't have a clue about my state. Since being elected as mayor Bernie has lost only one race. And that was because Paul Poirer ran and the vote was split. As I recall, Bernie got close to 40% and Paul got around 20%.
And no, although pat is well liked he isn't as popular as Bernie.
I live here. You don't have a clue.
I would never pretend to know more about the politics of your state than you do. I'm not that arrogant.
George II
(67,782 posts)...i.e., "resumptuous", "don't have a clue", "arrogant".
I've lived in New England for 25+ years, and have been following politics in the region for just about as long.
So a person who lost to Leahy (with a mere 5% of the vote) is "more popular" than a man who won his last election with 89% of the vote is "more popular"? Hah!
I have more of a clue than you'd like to admit, thank you.
cali
(114,904 posts)I've lived in New England much longer than you have but I don't know the intricacies and players in other new England states the way I do in Vermont. Pat is an institution here. Bernie is, well, beloved. Every year seven days runs a best in Vermont thing and readers vote. Bernie wins every year. No, this isn't scientific, but there are ad reasons why. Bernie is much more accessible and his office is recognised as doing more for constituents that need assistance of some kind. This is the stuff that if you don't live here,you're just not attuned to.
And yes, I think it's very presumptuous of you to think you know more about the state where I've lived for 35 years, than I do.
neverforget
(9,436 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Have you learned nothing from your previous epic fails?
"By the way, while we're on the subject of DEMOCRATIC politicians from Vermont, a little known fact is that Bernie..."
Keep flinging those red herrings and thinking it's distracting people from noticing how desperate some HC supporters are getting.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)are two people that have never been in my kitchen.
SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)And so it goes.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)Never forget!
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,437 posts)doesn't necessarily win the primary.
NowSam
(1,252 posts)and I think that it means Bernie's message is getting through regardless of the slanted and minimal main stream media he gets and even though the DMC is limiting the debates and further tilting the board toward HRC with the exclusivity clause.
I think more polls will come from other states that will show similar trends. This is a movement and the time has come for real measurable change in this nation.
trumad
(41,692 posts)Now if he led Ohio or California...well that's different.
frylock
(34,825 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Hillary green, Bernie blue.
trumad
(41,692 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)I thought you were sent on vacation unfairly and actually said so.
Welcome back.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)I think that's why President Josiah Bartlet was from there. Real political players were deeply involved with the show, which is why the griping about the futility of winning New Hampshire came through so strongly.
Josh would say that you had to appear to 'try' win it, then completely ignore it.
frylock
(34,825 posts)the game has changed.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)When it doesn't fit their polling inevitability narrative. The rest of us take them with a hopeful grain of salt.
trumad
(41,692 posts)I'm a big time Hill supporter and I could care less.
It bothered you enough to start a discussion about it...
trumad
(41,692 posts)To be earth shattering...
I'm just saying whoop t doo
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)But let them celebrate. I think the celebrations will be few and far between for the Bernie supporters. It will be super Tuesday that tells the tale, not NH or IA.
Zorra
(27,670 posts)trumad
(41,692 posts)Zorra
(27,670 posts)trumad
(41,692 posts)Put up or shut up.
awake
(3,226 posts)Lets try and chill out a bit.
Hillary has spent over $800,000 on polling so her polling in NH seem to matter to her I am sure she would like to win there, as would anyone but come on "put Up or shut up" is that really necessary here?
trumad
(41,692 posts)Bring it!
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)"Bring" "it"
trumad
(41,692 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)I just had more fun punching the word, "Suffolk" into the search bar though.
forthemiddle
(1,382 posts)The trend at this point is not good for Hillary, regardless of the polls you don't like.
Face it, she will probably still be the candidate in the end, but everyday more and more people are looking elsewhere. Including the administration, and party big wigs, otherwise the Biden talk would be not happening.
For me, my mantra from the start has been NO MORE CLINTONS, NO MORE BUSHES!!!!!!!
I haven't quite decided yet who I will back in the primaries yet (yes there are still undecideds), but in the end I will back the party nominee no matter how much I dislike it.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)insurmountable lead. How is that THIS poll is the one you choose to post that no one should give a rat's ass about? Did you make the same statement about the dozens and dozens of polls touting Hillary's lead?
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)again.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)"Does anyone really give a rats ass about a New Hamshire poll or an Iowa poll...etc."
Apparently they do:
"Hillary Clinton SURGES ahead in Iowa"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110716749
ismnotwasm
(42,008 posts)Jamaal510
(10,893 posts)Why is it that only 2 states (with fairly small and homogeneous populations BTW) get placed on a pedestal during the primaries? It's just weird to me how they get so much airtime and so much time from the candidates devoted to them, while the other 48 get less attention.
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)You care enough about it to start a thread to dismiss it.
bunnies
(15,859 posts)Fuck small, rural, white, racist, volvo-driving, entitled, dumb-fuck New Hampshire! Right? You dont need us now nor will you ever!
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)We're supposed to be ashamed of where we live now.
Good for you, NH!
You can drive Bernie all the way to the white house in your Volvo!
bunnies
(15,859 posts)It says "priggish" on the license plate.
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)He's a thousandaire!
Buns_of_Fire
(17,194 posts)Just trying to help!
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)That is where we send all the volvos to die as well. Our proud state is evenly split between Humvee driving tealibans and prius/subaru pinko commie liberals, most of whom are too uptight to acknowledge their granola eating past.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)except for those meaningless national polls that Team Clinton loves to scoreboard with.
You heard me say the NH poll don't mean shit .
frylock
(34,825 posts)Response to trumad (Original post)
1000words This message was self-deleted by its author.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)The ones she doesn't buy? They're good if they are consistent with the narrative.
madville
(7,412 posts)And he takes 10-15% away from Hillary overnight, I bet the polls really won't matter then lol
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)delegates and this will win the nomination.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)Usually it comes earlier in the day, but this will do.
p.s. "Hampshire". Although we will allow the alternative spelling "New Hampster" as it is chuckle-worthy.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)They don't drive my choices.
Really, the only reason for me to enjoy a positive poll for Sanders is to watch all those who tell me that any candidate I support is unelectable, using poll data, race to rationalize his poll numbers away.
ornotna
(10,807 posts)13 people don't give a rats ass. The rest of DU are at least moderately interested.
jfern
(5,204 posts)So just LOL
SunSeeker
(51,694 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Unless you're new to following US politics, you ought to know how much the first caucus and first primary matter.
"Since 1976, when proliferating primaries and caucuses became the basis for selecting convention delegates, every single nominee but one, in both parties, won either Iowa or New Hampshire."
As for New Hampshire specifically, although there have been several exceptions in recent years, the winner of NH typically becomes the party's nominee. I won't be surprised, though, if 2016 provides another exception to the rule.
Those who lose both Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if they lose badly, have virtually zero chance of becoming the nominee.