2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPoll finds Clinton with dominant lead in Iowa
That's 34 percentage points more than the 20 percent who back Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Vice President Biden, who has not announced his candidacy, got 11 percent, while former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) garnered 4 percent.
The remaining percentage of voters were either undecided or supportive of other candidates.
There is a fierce loyalty to Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos said in a statement.
Seventy-six percent of Iowa Democrats say that Clinton did not break the law when she opted to use a private email server; 9 percent say she did break the law; 15 percent are unsure, according to the poll.
Despite reports suggesting her vulnerability, these Democratic voters say they dont believe she broke the law, Paleologos said in a statement. They are sticking by her in large numbers, even though a majority believes the email scandal will hurt her in the general election.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/251895-poll-finds-clinton-with-dominant-lead-in-iowa
BooScout
(10,406 posts)HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)So any lead Bernie might have in NH is likely to be overcome if Hillary wins Iowa.
Past those two states, its hard to see Bernie winning any of the next couple. Even if you give Bernie NH and a split of the next 4-5 contests, how does someone with so little money compete in the rest of the contests. That takes a lot of money.
livetohike
(22,163 posts)sure they already have the next scandal ready to float.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)couldn't tear her down with all they had, yet again. Hillary Clinton, 284, media, 0.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)"contributions" to the Clinton foundation that will sink that ship.
Of course, once the focus turns to the aforementioned, people might start to wonder exactly why Clinton was so intent on scrubbing her server.....
ericson00
(2,707 posts)next thing you'll be doing is saying Hillary is the only one of the candidates of both parties to accept speaking fees. And wait, haven't Republicans spoken at Clinton Foundation/Initiative events too?
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)should not run for president of the United States.
The perception of conflicts of interest will haunt you if you are elected.
Again, it shows poor judgment.
You either fund-raise for a non-profit (an admirable thing to do) OR you seek the power to deny or reward the requests from those from whom you have or have not received money for your foundation.
Any person with an iota of integrity would understand this.
Even if she isn't doing it, Hillary can easily be accused of selling favors in exchange for foundation donations.
And it does happen in the non-profit sector. I hate to say that, but it does.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Fake charity scandal.
We sure don't want rich people donating to the Clinton Foundation so they can in turn do some good works in poor countries. And I sure don't want Hillary to get any more large speaking fees because that would mean she would be donating even more money to charities. Sheesh!
Metric System
(6,048 posts)it into a political liability. It is so Rovian I can't believe some here don't see through it. Or maybe they do, but they figure it helps their candidate of choice.
Gore1FL
(21,151 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)But we don't want people who head foundations or fund-raise for foundations running for public offices in which they may have the authority to do favors or deny favors for people who are actual or potential donors to the foundation.
Do you understand the conflict there?
Hillary may be the most honest person in the world who would never return a favor for someone who has assisted her foundation, but tell that to Fox News. They will be all over her the minute anything resembling a favor for one of Hillary's donors happens should Hillary be elected.
Sometimes we have to make choices.
If I were Hillary, I would reconsider my candidacy. The potential conflict of interest and the accusations of conflicts of interest would be a huge liability if not in the election cycle, at some point later on.
We have to make choices.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Gore1FL
(21,151 posts)seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Gore1FL
(21,151 posts)She would be an awful general election candidate if she could only get 61% of Democrats while running unopposed.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Last edited Tue Aug 25, 2015, 05:01 PM - Edit history (1)
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary
Metric System
(6,048 posts)numbers decrease given how high they were to begin with.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)We all know that those numbers are not going to hold. It isn't even Labor Day yet.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)seabeyond
(110,159 posts)she is suppose to stay at like 61?
the gap had been shortin, or we are living in an alternate universe.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And this latest poll, when added, will show an arrest on the convergence, as Clinton is 4 points above the last average and Sanders is 11 points below.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)My mistake. I apologize.
6chars
(3,967 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Not soon enough to save me from that embarrassment, but better late than never I suppose.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary
The trend continues.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)If you select less smoothing, which moves as if latest information is more valuable than older you get the following (Can't paste the chart from my cell):
Clinton - 52.4%
Sanders - 20%
Admittedly less smoothing makes the chart more volatile, but it does show how much numbers can vary from one day to the next.
moobu2
(4,822 posts)That's a great reason to support Hillary in and of itself.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)there is no way to know whether her lead over Bernie there holds steady, is increasing or is on the decline.
Their last poll was almost exactly a year ago, and had her at 66, w/Biden at 8 and O'Malley at 2. I guess 24% were undecided.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
So now undecided is down to 10%, and she's lost 6 points to Biden, OMalley and and Webb. That leaves 6 points and 14 undecideds going to Bernie.
Response to Metric System (Original post)
ellisonz This message was self-deleted by its author.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)said the Hillary folks....
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Clinton has a dominatrix lead?
After all, her numbers are falling, and Bernie's are rising.
Give it a few months, it's only August, and Primaries are not for at least five months. Plenty of time to catch up and pass!
MisterP
(23,730 posts)Please do not allow posters to call Secretary Clinton a"dominatrix" or any other names that have sexual connotations. This is deplorable.
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Aug 25, 2015, 05:09 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: not even close to over the top
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Should NOT use the word, but the substance is ok. Leave it, but poster should watch his/her language.
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Obvious gendered insult is obvious. Bernie supporters should know better.
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: "dominatrix" is only mildly pejorative, and there's plenty of charges of eunuchdom floating around anyway; even Philip Pullman confuses gonads with gumption
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Meanwhile, legit criticism of Bernie's policies are hidden as "flamebait." SMH.
Cha
(297,665 posts)attention.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Because I thought that dominatrix was the feminine form of the word dominant.
Oh well, so much for my understanding of foreign based English words.
George II
(67,782 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)He may be ahead at the moment but that will change when people see he has stagnated.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)He can take Vermont on Super Tuesday, and if he's still campaigning in June he can win DC.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)I doubt he will still be in the race in June. I don't see how he wins DC though, regardless.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)DC is a different animal from most primaries because for all practical purposes it's the general election for city officers.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)And half the candidates opted out of it in 2004. Not sure if HRC would run in it, but I think she'd win if she did. Jmo.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I've never really understood that; it's just kind of a DC Democratic straw poll
DCBob
(24,689 posts)That will give her a nice boost into NH which might be enough to put out the Bern.