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Metric System

(6,048 posts)
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:18 PM Aug 2015

Poll finds Clinton with dominant lead in Iowa

Fifty-four percent of Iowa Democrats support Clinton, according to a Suffolk University Poll released Tuesday.

That's 34 percentage points more than the 20 percent who back Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Vice President Biden, who has not announced his candidacy, got 11 percent, while former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) garnered 4 percent.

The remaining percentage of voters were either undecided or supportive of other candidates.

“There is a fierce loyalty to Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa,” Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos said in a statement.

Seventy-six percent of Iowa Democrats say that Clinton did not break the law when she opted to use a private email server; 9 percent say she did break the law; 15 percent are unsure, according to the poll.

“Despite reports suggesting her vulnerability, these Democratic voters say they don’t believe she broke the law,” Paleologos said in a statement. “They are sticking by her in large numbers, even though a majority believes the email scandal will hurt her in the general election.”


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/251895-poll-finds-clinton-with-dominant-lead-in-iowa

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Poll finds Clinton with dominant lead in Iowa (Original Post) Metric System Aug 2015 OP
Wow great numbers! BooScout Aug 2015 #1
Wow. And only 5 short months left for someone to catch up. HERVEPA Aug 2015 #3
The other great thing about a big Iowa win is that the winner of Iowa gets a 10-20 point NH bump stevenleser Aug 2015 #37
Proof that the e-mail server faux issue is not bothering people in Iowa. Keep trying GOP. I'm livetohike Aug 2015 #2
sucks to be the media right now ericson00 Aug 2015 #4
It's not the email scandal the Clintons have to worry about. It's the "speaking fees" and the Skwmom Aug 2015 #5
so making speeches and having a philanthropic foundation is now illegal, huh ericson00 Aug 2015 #6
If you accept large speaking fees from corporations and fund-raise for a foundation, you probably JDPriestly Aug 2015 #18
Yes, it's high time we moved on to the.... MaggieD Aug 2015 #36
Oh boy! leftofcool Aug 2015 #7
It's simply repeating a Right-Wing narrative. It's attempting to take a positive thing and turning Metric System Aug 2015 #8
What kind of narrative is it when you call a fellow DUer's post "Rovian?" n/t Gore1FL Aug 2015 #9
Huh? I said the narrative about the foundation put forth by the Right is Rovian. Metric System Aug 2015 #12
We do want people donating to great foundations, and I'm sure the Clinton founcation is one. JDPriestly Aug 2015 #19
omg, .... dump the email issue pals, lets try this one. lordy. seabeyond Aug 2015 #22
She's lost 9 points from February? She was leading with 61%, then. Gore1FL Aug 2015 #10
she was the only one running, lmao. right? seabeyond Aug 2015 #24
I hope not! Gore1FL Aug 2015 #34
The trend is clear. Motown_Johnny Aug 2015 #11
Yeah, the race is tightening. As things get more competitive it's not at all surprising to see her Metric System Aug 2015 #13
Then why tout her numbers in Iowa? Motown_Johnny Aug 2015 #25
Why tout any poll? We all do so to promote our preferred candidate. Metric System Aug 2015 #27
isnt this one a duh, too. i mean. they had no one going against her in feb. people think seabeyond Aug 2015 #26
Updated 13 days ago, according to the header Godhumor Aug 2015 #17
My bad, the national chart updated yesterday. Motown_Johnny Aug 2015 #23
Happened to see the R's chart there too 6chars Aug 2015 #28
Now it has updated yesterday. Motown_Johnny Aug 2015 #45
Function of Pollster's trend smoothing Godhumor Aug 2015 #46
With all the relentless attacks she's still ahead, way ahead. moobu2 Aug 2015 #14
since Suffolk didn't do a poll immediately after Sanders entered the race magical thyme Aug 2015 #15
This message was self-deleted by its author ellisonz Aug 2015 #16
"Must be an OUTLIER" John Poet Aug 2015 #20
Shouldn't that be RoccoR5955 Aug 2015 #21
jurors are weird MisterP Aug 2015 #29
That post deserves a MIRT by Skinner or Earl, IMO MaggieD Aug 2015 #31
Absolutely, Maggie. A DU jury wouldn't hide it so it should be brought to Skinner's Cha Aug 2015 #43
Yes they are... RoccoR5955 Aug 2015 #35
So with that understanding, perhaps you might edit that word out of your post? George II Aug 2015 #44
I will be surprised if Bernie wins any major primary beyond NH MaggieD Aug 2015 #30
I will be surprised if he wins NH leftofcool Aug 2015 #33
I would be surprised if he wins NH Recursion Aug 2015 #38
Yes he should win Vermont. MaggieD Aug 2015 #39
Dean won in 2004 Recursion Aug 2015 #40
Well it's a non-binding primary MaggieD Aug 2015 #41
There's also an earlier caucus which is even less binding Recursion Aug 2015 #42
Looks like a nice solid lead for the Hill. DCBob Aug 2015 #32
 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
37. The other great thing about a big Iowa win is that the winner of Iowa gets a 10-20 point NH bump
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 11:15 PM
Aug 2015

So any lead Bernie might have in NH is likely to be overcome if Hillary wins Iowa.

Past those two states, its hard to see Bernie winning any of the next couple. Even if you give Bernie NH and a split of the next 4-5 contests, how does someone with so little money compete in the rest of the contests. That takes a lot of money.

livetohike

(22,163 posts)
2. Proof that the e-mail server faux issue is not bothering people in Iowa. Keep trying GOP. I'm
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:24 PM
Aug 2015

sure they already have the next scandal ready to float.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
4. sucks to be the media right now
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:25 PM
Aug 2015

couldn't tear her down with all they had, yet again. Hillary Clinton, 284, media, 0.

Skwmom

(12,685 posts)
5. It's not the email scandal the Clintons have to worry about. It's the "speaking fees" and the
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:25 PM
Aug 2015

"contributions" to the Clinton foundation that will sink that ship.

Of course, once the focus turns to the aforementioned, people might start to wonder exactly why Clinton was so intent on scrubbing her server.....
 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
6. so making speeches and having a philanthropic foundation is now illegal, huh
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:26 PM
Aug 2015

next thing you'll be doing is saying Hillary is the only one of the candidates of both parties to accept speaking fees. And wait, haven't Republicans spoken at Clinton Foundation/Initiative events too?

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
18. If you accept large speaking fees from corporations and fund-raise for a foundation, you probably
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 04:20 PM
Aug 2015

should not run for president of the United States.

The perception of conflicts of interest will haunt you if you are elected.

Again, it shows poor judgment.

You either fund-raise for a non-profit (an admirable thing to do) OR you seek the power to deny or reward the requests from those from whom you have or have not received money for your foundation.

Any person with an iota of integrity would understand this.

Even if she isn't doing it, Hillary can easily be accused of selling favors in exchange for foundation donations.

And it does happen in the non-profit sector. I hate to say that, but it does.

leftofcool

(19,460 posts)
7. Oh boy!
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:49 PM
Aug 2015

We sure don't want rich people donating to the Clinton Foundation so they can in turn do some good works in poor countries. And I sure don't want Hillary to get any more large speaking fees because that would mean she would be donating even more money to charities. Sheesh!

Metric System

(6,048 posts)
8. It's simply repeating a Right-Wing narrative. It's attempting to take a positive thing and turning
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:51 PM
Aug 2015

it into a political liability. It is so Rovian I can't believe some here don't see through it. Or maybe they do, but they figure it helps their candidate of choice.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
19. We do want people donating to great foundations, and I'm sure the Clinton founcation is one.
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 04:25 PM
Aug 2015

But we don't want people who head foundations or fund-raise for foundations running for public offices in which they may have the authority to do favors or deny favors for people who are actual or potential donors to the foundation.

Do you understand the conflict there?

Hillary may be the most honest person in the world who would never return a favor for someone who has assisted her foundation, but tell that to Fox News. They will be all over her the minute anything resembling a favor for one of Hillary's donors happens should Hillary be elected.

Sometimes we have to make choices.

If I were Hillary, I would reconsider my candidacy. The potential conflict of interest and the accusations of conflicts of interest would be a huge liability if not in the election cycle, at some point later on.

We have to make choices.


Gore1FL

(21,151 posts)
34. I hope not!
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 09:02 PM
Aug 2015

She would be an awful general election candidate if she could only get 61% of Democrats while running unopposed.

Metric System

(6,048 posts)
13. Yeah, the race is tightening. As things get more competitive it's not at all surprising to see her
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 02:33 PM
Aug 2015

numbers decrease given how high they were to begin with.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
25. Then why tout her numbers in Iowa?
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 05:02 PM
Aug 2015

We all know that those numbers are not going to hold. It isn't even Labor Day yet.


 

seabeyond

(110,159 posts)
26. isnt this one a duh, too. i mean. they had no one going against her in feb. people think
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 05:03 PM
Aug 2015

she is suppose to stay at like 61?

the gap had been shortin, or we are living in an alternate universe.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
17. Updated 13 days ago, according to the header
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 04:07 PM
Aug 2015

And this latest poll, when added, will show an arrest on the convergence, as Clinton is 4 points above the last average and Sanders is 11 points below.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
46. Function of Pollster's trend smoothing
Wed Aug 26, 2015, 05:58 PM
Aug 2015

If you select less smoothing, which moves as if latest information is more valuable than older you get the following (Can't paste the chart from my cell):

Clinton - 52.4%
Sanders - 20%

Admittedly less smoothing makes the chart more volatile, but it does show how much numbers can vary from one day to the next.

moobu2

(4,822 posts)
14. With all the relentless attacks she's still ahead, way ahead.
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 03:26 PM
Aug 2015

That's a great reason to support Hillary in and of itself.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
15. since Suffolk didn't do a poll immediately after Sanders entered the race
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 03:38 PM
Aug 2015

there is no way to know whether her lead over Bernie there holds steady, is increasing or is on the decline.

Their last poll was almost exactly a year ago, and had her at 66, w/Biden at 8 and O'Malley at 2. I guess 24% were undecided.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

So now undecided is down to 10%, and she's lost 6 points to Biden, OMalley and and Webb. That leaves 6 points and 14 undecideds going to Bernie.

Response to Metric System (Original post)

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
21. Shouldn't that be
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 04:57 PM
Aug 2015

Clinton has a dominatrix lead?
After all, her numbers are falling, and Bernie's are rising.
Give it a few months, it's only August, and Primaries are not for at least five months. Plenty of time to catch up and pass!

MisterP

(23,730 posts)
29. jurors are weird
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 06:11 PM
Aug 2015

Please do not allow posters to call Secretary Clinton a"dominatrix" or any other names that have sexual connotations. This is deplorable.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Aug 25, 2015, 05:09 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: not even close to over the top
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Should NOT use the word, but the substance is ok. Leave it, but poster should watch his/her language.
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Obvious gendered insult is obvious. Bernie supporters should know better.
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: "dominatrix" is only mildly pejorative, and there's plenty of charges of eunuchdom floating around anyway; even Philip Pullman confuses gonads with gumption

 

MaggieD

(7,393 posts)
31. That post deserves a MIRT by Skinner or Earl, IMO
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 06:38 PM
Aug 2015

Meanwhile, legit criticism of Bernie's policies are hidden as "flamebait." SMH.

Cha

(297,665 posts)
43. Absolutely, Maggie. A DU jury wouldn't hide it so it should be brought to Skinner's
Wed Aug 26, 2015, 08:12 AM
Aug 2015

attention.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
35. Yes they are...
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 10:38 PM
Aug 2015

Because I thought that dominatrix was the feminine form of the word dominant.
Oh well, so much for my understanding of foreign based English words.

leftofcool

(19,460 posts)
33. I will be surprised if he wins NH
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 08:48 PM
Aug 2015

He may be ahead at the moment but that will change when people see he has stagnated.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
38. I would be surprised if he wins NH
Wed Aug 26, 2015, 03:33 AM
Aug 2015

He can take Vermont on Super Tuesday, and if he's still campaigning in June he can win DC.

 

MaggieD

(7,393 posts)
39. Yes he should win Vermont.
Wed Aug 26, 2015, 03:35 AM
Aug 2015

I doubt he will still be in the race in June. I don't see how he wins DC though, regardless.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
40. Dean won in 2004
Wed Aug 26, 2015, 03:37 AM
Aug 2015

DC is a different animal from most primaries because for all practical purposes it's the general election for city officers.

 

MaggieD

(7,393 posts)
41. Well it's a non-binding primary
Wed Aug 26, 2015, 03:41 AM
Aug 2015

And half the candidates opted out of it in 2004. Not sure if HRC would run in it, but I think she'd win if she did. Jmo.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
42. There's also an earlier caucus which is even less binding
Wed Aug 26, 2015, 03:42 AM
Aug 2015

I've never really understood that; it's just kind of a DC Democratic straw poll

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
32. Looks like a nice solid lead for the Hill.
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 08:08 PM
Aug 2015

That will give her a nice boost into NH which might be enough to put out the Bern.

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