2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRasmussen Reports: Sanders Gains Big As Clinton Falls
Our latest national telephone survey finds that 50% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters still say they would vote for Clinton if their party's state primary was held today, but thats down nine points from January and 12 points from last November. Twenty-four percent (24%) now prefer Sanders who had only four percent (4%) support nine months ago.
The remaining announced candidates - former Maryland Governor Martin OMalley, former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Senator Jim Webb - each earn just two percent (2%) of the vote from Democratic primary voters. Ten percent (10%) prefer some other candidate, while another 10% are undecided.
In the face of increasing legal questions about the safety of secrets on the private e-mail server she used as secretary of State and of the vigorous intraparty challenge from Sanders, belief that Clinton is likely to be next year's Democratic presidential nominee has dropped noticeably over the past month.
Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters - and 24% of Democrats - think Clinton should suspend her campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination until all of the legal questions about her use of the private e-mail server are resolved
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Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/sanders_gains_big_as_clinton_falls
Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)fbc
(1,668 posts)Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)I may need a break for a few days to recover from such a drubbing.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)You understand the difference between hypothetical general election match-ups and primary polling, right?
Mind you, I don't think Sanders will be the nominee. But your link doesn't refute the OP. It doesn't even relate to the OP.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)This isn't one of those things about which there can be a difference of opinion. The OP has to do with primary polling between Democratic candidates (I do agree that Rasmussen doesn't have a great reputation, but that's a separate issue). What you posted has to do with a hypothetical match-up between Clinton and potential GOP opponents.
2 completely different things.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)The difference means nothing. We keep hearing people say Dems are abandoning Clinton, liberals will sit home, etc. But there is not a shred of data to support that. Is there?
Keep in mind, there is a reason they are rarely polling Sanders against republicans. In fact I have not seen a signal national poll polling Sanders against the republican field. Have you?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)what you posted doesn't refute the OP, because what you posted and what the OP posted are 2 very different things. You can insist that the difference doesn't mean anything or that what you posted somehow relates to the OP, but that would be like arguing 2 plus 2 equals 37.
Again, I don't think Sanders will be the nominee and, like you, I haven't seen much in the way of Sanders vs. GOP (one exception: http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/latest-national-poll-shows-bernie-sanders-beating-scott-walker-donald-trump-jeb-bush).
But you're bringing up unrelated issues. My only point was that what you posted didn't refute (or even relate to) the OP, because it didn't. Objectively-speaking, they are 2 very different things.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)YMMV. Not worth arguing about in my book.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)That you think hypothetical polling vs. potential GOP candidates refutes primary polling between Democratic candidates is just mind-numbing.
If you wanted to argue that Clinton's decline and Sanders's bump are not very significant, that would be one thing. You could make that argument. But your response to the OP was completely irrelevant to said OP. That's not up for debate, it's objectively evident. While it's probably not worth all of this back-and-forth, it does tell me something important about the way you operate. You're not just apples and oranges. You're like apples and sofas.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)And one is an aggregate of national polls. That's the first common sense to be injected. Obviously the second one has more credibility.
Secondly, the Rasmussen poll shows (like every other poll) a huge gap when comparing HRC to Sanders. That is the second injection of common sense.
The third injection of common sense is that 25% of the Dem party voters consider themselves extremely liberal, so the fact that 9% of them switched to Sanders after he entered the race is completely unsurprising, and not indicative of anything. He appears to be at his ceiling, but time will tell.
The final injection of common sense is that national polling shows those Sanders voters will vote for her. Ergo, the Rasmussen poll is not indicative of much at all if you compare it to the national polling.
Does that help?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)changes the fact that the link you posted refutes the OP. The OP is about the rise and fall of primary polling numbers. Period. That's all it is. Your link was to a poll that is unrelated and irrelevant to the OP. And the points you just made are irrelevant to that point.
Again, you can argue that the OP isn't very meaningful (as you're doing, for example, with your 3rd point above) and that Rasmussen doesn't have a strong reputation (though numerous other polls also show that Sanders is polling higher than he once did and that Clinton is polling lower than she once did). But you can't argue that your link was related or relevant, because it simply isn't.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)We will have to agree to disagree.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)You say it's 37. Agree to disagree.
Seriously, some things aren't up for debate. Primary polling numbers between Clinton and Sanders are not related to hypothetical polling numbers between Clinton and, say, Bush or Trump. That's so obvious that it's hard to believe we're having this debate.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)However reading the tea leaves of polling data is an art form, not a black and white subject by any means.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)A)
Okay, let's say the OP posted a link to hypothetical polling numbers between Sanders and potential GOP candidates that showed Sanders beating each of them (like the link I provided previously). And the OP said something such as, "See, Sanders is more likely to win than Clinton."
You could then show hypothetical polling numbers between Clinton and potential GOP candidates that show Clinton beating each of them by a larger margin than Sanders does. Doing that would be relevant and would successfully refute the OP.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
B)
Whereas what you did was attempt to refute the easily verifiable fact that the Clinton vs. Sanders numbers have shifted (which, again, is all the OP is really saying) by showing hypothetical match-ups between Clinton and GOP candidates.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Surely you see the difference. And, no, I'm not calling you "Shirley."
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)"It's not going to be a "happy" New Year for Team Weather Vain"
You can apologize any time.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)The person who posted the "weather vain" comment is clearly implying that Sanders is headed toward the nomination. Now, you and I can agree that that's highly unlikely and could quite easily refute that in a number of ways (pointing out that his deficit is still very large even if it's declined a bit, pointing out that Clinton's campaign is spending much more money, pointing out that Clinton is well-known and that 25% of registered voters still haven't even heard of Sanders according to a CNN poll, pointing out that Sanders doesn't have the backing of the party establishment, etc., etc., etc.). See, numerous valid ways to refute the "weather vain" poster. But your reply wasn't one. You posting Clinton's hypothetical match-ups with GOP candidates doesn't refute the "weather vain" comment regarding Clinton's primary prospects. It's unrelated and irrelevant data, as one is about an ongoing match-up between Clinton and Sanders and the other is about a hypothetical match-up between Clinton and Bush/Trump/et al. Forensics (Speech and Debate) 101. And I think this horse has been soundly beaten.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)That's really the best thing to do at this point.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)whether your reply was to the OP or the "weather vain" poster, your reply was equally irrelevant. Again, there were numerous valid ways to go about refuting the weather vain poster (I'll throw out another one: Sanders isn't very charismatic in a world obsessed with celebrity and the Cult of Personality). You instead replied with completely unrelated data comparing Clinton with GOP candidates when the weather vain poster was commenting on the shift in the Clinton-Sanders numbers. One doesn't have anything to do with the other. Try as you might, that's not subjective or up for debate. One simply doesn't have anything to do with the other. Period. You might as well be comparing baseball statistics with football statistics.
BainsBane
(53,074 posts)It's still a 26 point lead, after months of relentless attacks in the press. If Sanders becomes seen as a serious contender, he will be attacked as well (not by the GOP because they want to run against him) but by Clinton and the media more generally.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I see that around here there's an epidemic of making irrelevant points. Sigh. What does pointing out the difference between their numbers have to do with my comment to Maggie?
Yes, Clinton has a large lead in the polls. No, I don't think Sanders will be the nominee. But that doesn't have any bearing on my pointing out to Maggie that a poll about hypothetical general election match-ups doesn't have anything to do with the shift in primary polling numbers that has occurred (again, the latter is what the OP is about--nothing more).
Anyway, as for the GOP preferring to face Sanders, I'm not sure that's true given how polarizing Clinton is. I'm not saying you're wrong--it's a fair opinion. I'm just not convinced you're right--if for no other reason than it can't be proven. It's conjecture.
Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)If you take HRC's 9 point slide and add Bernie's 20 point gain then Senator Sanders has moved 29 points closer to Secretary Clinton. By any metric, that is a substantial movement in the polls.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)and does not publish or broadcast negative ads.
I don't think any candidates or interest groups will dare to disseminate negative ads or negative articles about Sanders all that much because they will get too much blow-back.
Sanders' approach pretty much limits not only himself but other candidates to a discussion of the issues and not of political gossip.
Candidates, regardless of party, will look very bad if they are in any way personally associated with negative attacks on Bernie. They will look like they are dirty players, like they somehow cheat.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)this is the third or fourth so far showing that the more people get to know him, the more support he is getting, blowing away the myth that 'Dems can't win on a Progressive Message'.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)If we can get enough folks to believe again, and not simply always choose the 'triangulation' candidate, we can get a lot of better candidates into office.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Give it up Hillary. You're 'done.'
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)to arrive a meaningful number.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)It isn't that you "need more than 500," per se. But the greater the sample the smaller the margin of error. For this particular poll, the margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)There are issues of how much push is in each question
There are issues of whether representation was correct in participants
And there are questions about how the representation was mathematically balanced to deal with uneveness in polling and lying by participants.
536 -representative- voters polled would give better than a 5% margin of error on questions that don't have built in push.
One of the problems is people lie about how likely they will be primary voters.
Primary participation is really very poor among democrats, and it has patterns in identifiable strata of age, race, and income
Dealing with the math that balances those things is not done very well by most polling.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)hatred of Democrats and especially Hillary Clinton and President Obama didn't blind them so.
Fact of the matter is, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. She has won and will keep the 70-80% African-American demographic and 73% Latino demographic. She's won over 94 House Dem Reps endorsements, 29 Dem Senator endorsements, and 7 solid Dem Governors.
Bernie Sanders has won exactly ZERO.
I don't see him winning beyond New Hampshire and Vermont. Maybe another State here or there, but that's it.
riversedge
(70,322 posts)Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Hillary Clinton's numbers continue to fall, while support for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has surged significantly in Rasmussen Reports' latest look at the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Our latest national telephone survey finds that 50% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters still say they would vote for Clinton if their party's state primary was held today, but thats down nine points from January and 12 points from last November. Twenty-four percent (24%) now prefer Sanders who had only four percent (4%) support nine months ago.
The remaining announced candidates - former Maryland Governor Martin OMalley, former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Senator Jim Webb - each earn just two percent (2%) of the vote from Democratic primary voters. Ten percent (10%) prefer some other candidate, while another 10% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)So of course they are going to misled to smear the Dem front runner. And Bernie supporters seem to love republican talking points nowadays. Sad.
riversedge
(70,322 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)Zorra
(27,670 posts)More and more volunteer groups for Bernie are forming every week, spreading name recognition and the message.
We are going to pull this off.
dorkzilla
(5,141 posts)BULLSHIT. Cant be.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Accuracy hasn't been their strong suit.
dorkzilla
(5,141 posts)Jesus who would even fall for that?
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)They definitely did in 2012. Apparently their symptoms are communicable. LOL!
Reality: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/08/26/1415688/-Hillary-Clinton-s-poll-numbers-haven-t-dropped-at-all-and-this-one-chart-proves-it#
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)If she suspended her campaign "until all of the legal questions about her use of the private e-mail server are resolved", that would be it, she'd simply lose.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)He can make a single case that he can actually pass one of his proposals through congress. LOL - JK. But it makes as much sense as someone suggesting she should suspend her campaign because of a fake republican smear campaign.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)would have one hell of a time getting his proposals passed. Precisely because they require things like a drastic reduction in military spending, a substantial hike in tax rates for the wealthy, etc. In other words, his proposals are too progressive. Under Eisenhower, the top marginal tax rate was 91%...heaven forbid we hike it up to, say, 50%. Gasp!
That's what makes it all the more absurd that so many insist that the DU opposition to the party establishment is coming predominantly from a right wing perspective.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)I just think certain group are co-opting rethug talking points and tactics to smear her. Just because they borrow heavily from rethug talking points and tactics doesn't mean they agree with rethugs. At least beyond the "I hate HRC" meme.
I guess it never occurs to them that there are good reasons republicans hate her. She kicks their ass. Personally liberals joining in with rethugs to smear her in an attempt to defeat our front runner disgusts me. YMMV.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Whereas Clinton supporters keep insinuating that that constitutes the bulk of DU Clinton opposition. The primary tactic of the right is to paint Clinton as an extreme liberal, which is certainly not the leftist critique of Clinton and other Corporate Democrats.
NanceGreggs
(27,820 posts)... is using terms like "it makes as much sense as ..." There are people who don't want any sense to be made, or to be injected into the discussion.
I keep reading here that the PTB in the Party are panicking, and are desperate for Biden to enter the race and "save"
the Dems from certain defeat in the GE due to HRC's many "failures".
Seriously, in what bizarro universe would the Party look at Hill's numbers and say, "OMG! She's far ahead of the Dem competition, and she beats every Republican in head-to-head match-ups. We've got to get someone else! She's toast!"
Swear to God, this place is absolutely mind-boggling at times - and these days, more often than not.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)That would be insane. And yes, this place is definitely mind boggling lately.
Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)concerned. If it doesn't she should fire some of her team and hire someone who knows what they're doing. There's still 6 months before the first primaries and Sanders is closing quite a bit....