The principal reason for Clinton’s continued polling edge in the face of her email struggles is her consistently overwhelming support among nonwhite voters. In Fox News’ latest poll, Clinton only led Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) by 19 points, 49%-30% (with Biden at 10%). However, she earned the backing of 65% of nonwhite Democrats to Sanders’ 14% and Biden’s 12%. When it’s been reported in surveys, Clinton has often been at over 60% among minority Democrats. As long as Clinton remains at near parity in the white vote (among whites she trailed Sanders by six in the Fox poll but led by 12 in CNN’s newest survey), her strength among nonwhites should buoy her in a number of states. Consider Map 1 and Table 1, which lay out the nonwhite participation in the 2008 Democratic primary and the 2016 delegate totals from the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the American territories.



Notes: Based on exit/entrance poll data. Estimated data derived from equation based on a simple regression analysis of nonwhite participation in Democratic primaries and the nonwhite share of the Democratic vote in the general election in states that had primary/caucus and general election exit/entrance polls. Estimates for caucus states may exaggerate nonwhite participation because caucuses tend to see much lower turnout as a percentage of a state’s citizen voting-age population, and data show that nonwhite turnout as a whole tends to be lower compared to white turnout in election contests. Utah Democrats used a primary in 2008 but will use a caucus in 2016. Texas Democrats used the “Texas Two-Step” primary and caucus/convention method in 2008 but will use just a primary in 2016.

Nonwhite Democrats played a major role in many 2008 nominating contests. At least 20% of the electorate was nonwhite in 33 state and territorial primaries or caucuses, including 21 that were at least 35% nonwhite. In 2016, it would not be surprising to see a borderline state such as California (48% in the 2008 primary exit poll) move into a higher category as eight years of further demographic change have aged millions of new nonwhite voters around the country into the eligible electorate. If we consider the preliminary delegate situation in 2016, 77% of delegates will come from states and territories that had primary or caucus electorates that were at least 20% nonwhite in 2008, and more than two-fifths (45%) from states that were at least 35%. In light of her solid backing from nonwhite Democrats, all of this bodes well for Clinton.

As most know, President Barack Obama capitalized on his strong support from African Americans, particularly in the South, to win a number of important primaries in 2008. But it’s important to remember that Obama was in many ways the perfect foil to Clinton eight years ago as he was able to win huge shares of black voters, who are more likely to support Clinton this time around. The former secretary of state enjoys sky-high favorable ratings among African Americans, which means she’ll be in a position to win some states she lost to Obama by winning a large percentage of black voters, especially in the Deep South. It’s possible that black turnout will fall in some contests because Obama isn’t running this time around, but there’s little question that African-American Democrats will hold great influence over the outcomes of many 2016 primaries.

Moreover, it’s sometimes forgotten that Clinton did very well among Latino voters in 2008. Pew Research Center reported that Clinton defeated Obama among Hispanics in 11 of 14 primaries or caucuses where there was sufficient data available regarding the Latino vote. Of the nine Democratic nominating contests where Hispanics made up at least 10% of the electorate, Clinton won all but Illinois, Obama’s home state (and he only won Latinos 50%-49% in the Land of Lincoln).