2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMason-Dixon: Obama up by one in Florida
Of all the big swing states, it's Florida I think will have the best shot of going to the GOP, mainly because they will steal it through ballot access. Mason Dixon has Obama up by one-point:
ORLANDO --
Florida may have voted for Barack Obama in 2008, but the sitting president will have a tight race on his hands if he wants a repeat in November.
In our exclusive Florida Decides Poll, Obama and Republican Mitt Romney are in a virtual dead heat in Florida, with Obama getting 46 percent of the vote and Romney getting 45 percent. Another 2 percent say they plan to vote for libertarian Gary Johnson and 7 percent remain undecided at this time.
Obama is currently struggling with overall job approval. Half of the people polled say they disapprove of the job he's doing: 50 percent to 46 percent who approve. The president even finds disapproval in his own party, with 15 percent of Florida Democrats saying they disapprove of Obama's job the past four years.
Fifty-four percent also say the country is on the wrong track, including nearly a quarter of Democratic voters, and many believe the man who ran on a campaign for change, isn't changing things for the better.
The economy has been the issue top of mind for the majority of Americans, but 41 percent of Floridians say Obama's actions to stabilize the economy have only made it worse. Only 35 percent say his efforts have improved the economic situation and 22 percent say it's had no effect at all.
It may be the economy where Mitt Romney's background could serve the presumed Republican candidate well among Florida voters.
While 39 percent of people say the man with a personal wealth of about $240 million is out of touch with the average American, 46 percent say that financial success can serve as an inspiration to other people.
http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/7/13/florida_decides_poll_0.html
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)His average lead in the polls was just 1.8 points at the end. Reuters had him winning by one. Quinnipiac two. And Mason/Dixon (for reference) two.
Rasmussen had McCain up one.
It will be close. But Obama is at, or just slightly below, his total in '08. He needs to be significantly lower than that for Romney to even make this a race nationally.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I agree that if it's another close election in that state that there could be electoral fraud again. Looks like Rick Scott is already hard at work. It's the same thing all over again. You'd think something would have changed from 2000 and that there would be more people willing to fight back.
Florida is just such a frustrating state in so many ways. WHY do they always insist on voting 50/50 with these 1% differences? I remember that Alex Sink lost to Rick Scott in 2010 by only 1%
WHY?