2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRCP: "No Toss UPs" -- Obama: 332 Romney: 206
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.htmlThis map gives the state to whoever is ahead based on the current RCP average no matter how small the advantage. That's probably about the way its going to turnout... imo.
HopeHoops
(47,675 posts)rufus dog
(8,419 posts)I say Obama keeps NC.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)That's the only state I think is off in that map.. at the moment.
It's very possable we may end up at Obama 52 and Romney 47
Indiana might be only 2008 state to flip the other way
If Obama keeps hamming Romney all the way through november and Romney has disastas Debate performance I might be
underestimating Obama for november.
Of course that assumes Romney Isn't replaced In Tampa.My crazy predication Is an attempt will be made to challenge his
nomination at convention.
Melissa G
(10,170 posts)replace Romney.
It probably wont actually happen but Im sure there will be a angry group of TPer types that will try.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I think we may lose there, but it will be close. The EC votes also change slightly from the reapportionment so if Obama won the same states (including DC and 2nd Dist in NE) he would have 359. My take is the 2nd Dist in NE, NC and IN will go the other way, the rest will stay the same. That would give him 321. I'd be happy if he gets over 300.
BTW I'm a Niner fan as well. How are you feeling about the upcoming season? I have no idea what's going on as I'm overseas.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)Based on polling data, Obama could lose Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, and STILL win. And I don't think we'll lose those, (maybe Florida given the corrupt jackass that runs it, but I think Ohio and Iowa will be ours for sure, and probably Florida as well).
I'll admit that as early as Monday I was worried that the stagnant economy and weak jobs reports could cause Obama's lead to erode come November, but with this Mitt scandal erupting and not likely to go away, I think this election's a shoe-in for Obama.
And no, I'm not saying that means we can sit on our butts until election day. Let's get out there and get the vote out, and give the Repukes one hell of a thrashing!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)so there's no doubt and it sends the Rethugs/TPers a message they cant ignore.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)I noticed there were a number of key toss up states where Obama was ahead but not enough to put in his column so thats why I posted the "No Tossup" map. I think that puts things into better perspective.