Smear some, raise up others.

14 months before the GE. 5 Months before the Primaries.

People don't even really pay attention to the primaries until late Fall at the earliest.

For the second month in a row. Guess that net favorability hasn't done any real damage. And it is no surprise that candidates who have just recently made a splash have decent favorability ratings or are doing well in a spot in time poll. When nominations are sorted out, we will get a much better picture of how people approach the candidates.

Unless the Republican nominee is Bush, but I believe it will be one of the anti-establishment candidates: Fiorina, Carson, Trump or Cruz.

Leaves open the door for someone to run third party as well, like Bloomberg.

eom

Carson earns a tie with Clinton at 44%, and he actually leads Bernie Sanders 42/36 in a
head to head. Carson is the only declared candidate with a positive favorability rating-
41% of voters nationally see him positively to only 30% who have a negative opinion. He
earns a tie with Clinton on the basis of a 43/35 advantage with independents.
The other candidates who come really close to Clinton are Donald Trump and Carly
Fiorina, who are each down by just 2. Fiorina trails Clinton 45/43, and is down 39/38 to
Sanders. Trump is down just 2 points as well at 46/44, and he leads Sanders 43/42.
Interestingly Joe Biden actually does far better than both Clinton and Sanders against
Trump, with a 6 point advantage at 47/41. Biden joins Carson as the second person with a
positive rating in this poll at 43/40.


We tested Jeb Bush against Clinton, Sanders, and Biden to get a sense of their relative
strength as general election candidates. Clinton (a 4 point lead over Bush at 46/42) and
Biden (a 3 point lead over Bush at 44/41) do quite similarly. Sanders does a little bit
worse, trailing Bush by a point at 41/40.

Not many other candidates have that luxury.

Perfect!

on her rallies

n/t

But what do I know?

Biden is the best liked Democrat. Maybe he should run.

I bet the favorability and H2H gap would be even wider in his favor. Would also like to see a Biden vs Kasich H2H poll in those states.

Those recent MI polls have me spooked. We need a candidate who can connect with hardworking Americans.

Look at graphs from every election during primary season and they usually go down, then when a nominee is announced and party's unite behind their candidate favorability goes right back up.

Obama had positive favorability ratings both times he won the election. McCain also had positive, Romney less so, but both were not as low as Clinton's. Kerry and G.W. Bush were split down the middle.

Also, you realize these numbers include republicans who will never vote for her. Her favs among Dems is very high.

if she wins the nomination... without Sanders, Clinton just has the Democratic voters who vote D after their names, nothing more.

Sanders, however, has consistently attracted all kinds of people, - Republicans, Socialists, Green, Democrats, Independents, Liberterians, progressives, conservatives and more.

And they will all vote for Bernie if he is the nominee in the end.

I think Bernie Sanders is the way to go. Just waiting for the debates to confirm.

I fully support Hillary, but of course will vote for Sanders if he wins the primary--although my close second choice is O'Malley

Sanders is anithical to everything Libertarians stand for, and I can't see them actual voting for him in the primary. The active Libertarians I know simply hate Hillary with the fiery passion of a thousand suns, and they are indifferent at this point to Sanders

not Big L Liberterians..

Generally they are anti-regulation, anti-tax, free market proponents. Sanders is none of these things. I think perhaps politically naive younger voters attracted to libertarianism out of dissatisfaction with a two party system, could be brought around-- perhaps. It's the form taxes would have to take that a Social Democrat would need to fulfill his agenda that is going to be a huge battle both during the primarie debates and with congress should he win--politically savvy libertarians know this. And whatever happens with trade agreements--they do have them in some form, probably not to a libertarians liking. Sanders social positions would attract them I guess.

Anyway, no worries--I'm just pondering-I know Liberatrian thought fairly well from hours of arguing with my brother

Thank you for that.

having opposed the Iraq war-- non-interventionism and such... and pot policy. I am expecting Sanders to come out or marijuana legalization.

Rand Paul isn't a true libertarian.

I don't think his personal favorability ever dipped below 45%, his approval numbers did but Obama has always maintained higher personal favorable numbers.

his unfavorables will go up once more people start getting to know the guy.

Not to mention that she's ahead of every GOP candidate except Carson, who she's tied with. Weird that you would miss all that.

Did you not read it? However, the difference is Clinton is universally known and has been going down in each poll combined with the ratio of her fav/unfav, it's not looking to good. A lead of 2 points against Donald Trump when both are equally known is a disaster

more importantly, general election polls this far out don't mean all that much (according to Nate Silver). Basically what I'm saying is...everybody relax.

The Biden trial balloons reported both the good and the bad. All of his issues that didn't sit well with the progressive wing have been aired out by multiple news sources over the past few weeks. Despite those tests, his favorability ratings are still above water, and he matches up the best against GOP opponents.

If this were early July I'd agree with you. September 3rd, not so much. I think he's the candidate that can bring Democrats to the polls while keeping a lot of GOPers at home.

Obama Coalition. I think Biden's campaign structure is already in place and whenever he announces, he can hit the ground running. But if BIDEN does not get in I'm prepared to vote for HRC.

more importantly, general election polls this far out don't mean all that much (according to Nate Silver). Basically what I'm saying is...everybody relax.

</Airplane>

Which tells me polling done in September of 2015 means nothing on a election that isn't until November 2016.These polling outfits are nothing but money making corporations.Now all of a.sudden this year's so called polling is all about favorbility and unfavorable polls which don't mean shit.Me personally I'm not sweating the polls

Sorry to say it but I just do not believe that the GOP is evolved enough to nominate a person of color. There are just to many racists in the base to allow a viable path to the nomination for him. They might tell a pollster that they will vote for him, but I really doubt it. Same goes for Carly. I don't see them nominating a woman either.

If Jesus Christ himself descended from Heaven and ran for the Republican Nomination they would decide he isn't white enough.

Esp when it comes to the AA and Hispanic vote. It would prevent a spirited primary battle from turning into a "who's blacker?" mudslinging contest in both the primary and general. Doing that with Carson in the background would be absolute political suicide for our party, as it should be for anyone who engages in that crap.

I can just hear Republicans saying, "See, I'm not a racist. I support a black guy for POTUS." Never mind that Carson is an Uncle Tom. Never mind that seeming to like an individual says nothing about the way in which one generalizes about the group. Never mind that seeming to like certain individuals of color doesn't keep one from failing to recognize institutional racism.

Anyway, as for the favorability ratings, it goes to show how much personality and style matter. As this article points out, Carson is just as extreme as Trump, but his personality and style is vastly different.

Hillary Clinton has the highest unfavorable numbers among these others:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/rand-paul-favorable-rating

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/ted-cruz-favorable-rating

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/chris-christie-favorable-rating

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/mitch-mcconnell-favorable-rating

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/nancy-pelosi-favorable-rating

That's pretty bad.