2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHow Hillary Clinton's struggles are letting the GOP candidates sprint to the right
This is a really interesting article:
None months ago, in New Hampshire, I checked in with some state legislator sources about their read on the Republican field. Nobody imagined that Donald Trump would run for president; plenty of people had been hearing that Mitt Romney would. It was a different world, but one difference defined everything. These legislators, who had just watched Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) buck a conservative trend and get reelected, assumed that Hillary Rodham Clinton would carry New Hampshire. Tom Brady won ball games; the Clintons won the Granite state.
This past week, things had changed oh, for the Clintons, obviously. From the most plugged-in Republicans to the voters using their lunch hours to see Republican presidential candidates speak, no one was scared of Clinton. Multiple voters, from Hooksett to Berlin, asked me if Clinton would actually stay in the race. And that new attitude has a lot to do with the rise of Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and the summer swoons of "establishment" candidates.
Democrats should know the feeling. In 2005, right after the defeat of the Kerry-Edwards ticket, beltway wisdom dictated that the party needed a red state governor to win the White House. Nothing else had worked in 28 years. The New Republic profiled then-Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, whose politics "would allow him to attract swaths of economically challenged rural voters in places like Virginia and North Carolina." The New York Times profiled former Virginia governor Mark Warner, whose star was rising because "a lot of pragmatic activists and voters worry that [Hillary] Clinton is simply too divisive a candidate to take back the White House." Even then-Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana made noise about a 2008 run, with one supporter telling the St. Petersburg Times (now the Tampa Bay Times seriously, this was a long time ago) that "it will be difficult, if not impossible, to label him as a classic liberal."
And then? The 2006 elections happened. Democrats took back the House and Senate, winning states like Virginia and Missouri and Montana. Gone, very quickly, was the sense that the party needed to "settle" on an "electable" candidate. The door was blown wide open for Clinton and Barack Obama, who gained strength in 2007, almost in tandem with the tumble of President George W. Bush's approval rating. Warner and Bayh never ran for president. Bredesen never got close. John Edwards, who often polled better in general election match-ups than Clinton or Obama, lost four early contests then quit the race. Even before the "demography is destiny" argument took over, Democrats decided that the conditions were there to elect a truly liberal, inspiring candidate.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/05/how-hillary-clintons-struggles-are-letting-the-gop-sprint-to-the-right/
HassleCat
(6,409 posts)One of the things we learn in grad school is to support your arguments. With evidence, not just a rehashing of what's going on. This article spends a good deal of time following the change in direction of the political winds. But to attribute it to Hillary Clinton's email problems? Where is the evidence for that? How does it relate to the failed 2006-2008 efforts of centrist Democrats? The right wing howling and Trump's rise to popularity are because Democrats are cringing in the face of Clinton's email problems? That is quite a stretch.
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)Trump is more responsible for the GOP move to the right than any issues due to the Clinton Campaign. Trump is doing a great deal of damage to the GOP's chances to win the Hispanic vote
KoKo
(84,711 posts)I caught a radio show with Tim Farley this afternoon....with an interview with the woman who runs the "Seltzer Poll" who kind of went along with what this article says.
I don't know the authenticity of Seltzer Reports Polling....but, she seemed to find the Iowa Polling interesting. She compared Hillary's polling with the 2007 numbers and then talked about Trump and the Repubs.
She claimed that Bernie's numbers of sign ups for New Voters in Iowa is like what happened in 2007 where the Young and Independents were all for Obama and Hillary depended on the usual Dem base. Would seem to say Bernie has captured the same enthusiasm that captured Obama's youth in 2007 and that was not looking good for Hillary.
She seemed to be saying that the Repubs then were leaning Right but that those who won the Iowa Poll then are not in favor now.
Just passing this along but... I can't verify the "Seltzer Report."