particular is also benefiting by not actually being a declared candidate.

No one can say with a straight face that he hasn't been scrutinized and attacked.

so you are pinning it on her "unfavorables" and not paying attention to the fact that they support her at the same time?

will go very poorly. As we can see, Biden polls much better in the general election in these 2 states, and Sanders presumably does too.

do you think Biden Supporters would automatically go to Sanders if he doesn't?

haahahahaha yeah right!

Understand that difference.

Secondly, Sanders has better net favorables than Biden, so likely does similar or a bit better. Hillary has by far the worst favorables of the 3 and does by far the worst of the 3.

numbers

Sanders has better Net Favorables in Iowa and New Hampshire yes!

How is that a good thing?

We are ahead in odds by a landslide....

Her favorables in these 2 states where people are paying the most attention are absolutely terrible. And the Huffington Post average over all polls nationwide has her a 41.1-52.3 (-11.2) with favorables. No one has ever won a Presidential general election with favorables that bad.

She has 57% odds there...with Jeb and Tump far behind. Followed, by Sanders,with a 5% chance!

Www.predictwise.com

Wrong stats on both sides.

He also has a huge war chest at his disposal...and big endorsements...like she does...

Its not over for Jeb yet...not by a longshot...

From the Monmouth poll

Trump: 56%
Bush: 37%

This is odds making....one poll does not a trend make....this is war....losing one battle soesnt mean rhe war is over.

Does a baseball team lose the season because they lost an early game?

And the only person who beats Trump one on one is Carson.

One poll does not a trend make.....this isn't your first summer out in politics is it? Believe me...this is far far far from over....and in the mean time...

Bush still has a 35% chance of winning the Primary.....one Momonth poll doesn't change that...there will be lots of polls between now and then...

If the Red Socks lose a game in the early season....does that mean they are done? No...because there are lots more games to play....

And if this season is any indication,
the answer is a resounding, YES

You got Trump and his Diminance of Crazym, and then rest of the pack.

But if it gets dowwn to Bush v Clinton, (or some equivalent GOP "respectable" candidate) I'm not sure the odds would be good

So I have no idea what you're talking about.

Sanders is doing well where in predominently White States...in Georgia and Florida...where it is not....polls,have her winning at numbers,abive 50%!

He is not polling so high with women, Blacks and Hispanics.....crucial denographics....that is why he only has a 5 percent in the General....they take those statistics iin consideration...

I know you dont believe this...but Sanders has not win anything yet....not vy a longshot....

Guesz where she is campaigning this week? Puerto Rico!

she has a 57% chance of winning...

after weeks of attacks by both YOUR team and the Republicans.....

And the Batavia Muckdogs. But they really sucked this year.

She has a 57% odds of winning GE followed by Trump and Jeb with about a 16% chance....followed by Sanders with 5%

I know that just doesnt fit your narrative..

Without Biden included, Sanders picks up 8% and Clinton 6%. So yes, at least half of Biden's support would go to Sanders.

Last edited Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:18 PM - Edit history (1)

On a cracker...

after he bows out and gives her his endorsement......his supporters are going to flock to
Sanders....the non-Democrat!

Good luck with THAT theory!

Hillary 41.1-52.3 (-11.2)
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

Obama 48.2-46.8 (+1.4)
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-favorable-rating

But this means something....you know voters often vote in spite of negatives right?

You watch sports I bet? What are the odds the Yankees win the pennant this year. When they make those odds do they Only use wins and losses? Or do they also take things like who is injured....who they have to face etc into consideration.....that is why her odds of winning the General are 57% and his are 5%

For one thing.....there is a damn good chance he runs out of money.....

It's just whatever people think the odds are. Anyone ignoring a 32-61 favorable rating for Hillary in Iowa is ignoring a big warning sign.

They are the bookies of the elections. .they take all the data into effect...they change them as things change....they are from Microsoft...some research engineers....its what they do for a living....research trends using software...using mathmatical algorythms..

Same as Nate Silver does....he is also,a statisician

So yes...those are real odds...

Paradigm shift?

deciding what their chances are....the odds they will win or lose this year...and I was trying to explain to our friend Jfern here....how making odds works.

HRC is the odds on favorite in the Primary with 74% and in the General with 57%.

as front-runner?!? Do you think Republicans and the Right-Wing noise machine will just let them coast to the Presidency?

against Obama 8 years ago.

the Right. How on Earth is that even up for debate?

be better than someone with net favorable ratings against those? Obama has certainly held up a lot better under scrutiny and attacks than Hillary.

No one, I repeat NO ONE on the Democratic Primary carries the amount of animosity and sleazy baggage as Clinton. A fair percent of it, of her own making. NO ONE.

How important is feeling things are unfair to -every- candidate's supporters?

It seems like it's a sub-dominant theme, occurring for different reasons, in posts and replies.

I know this varies from person to person and I don't want to suggests it's every supporter of any candidate.

It just reminds me of people at sports venues complaining about the umpires, referees, etc.

It's getting harder to trust my memory, but I don't remember it like this, with essentially all groups expressing this sentiment.

I think, frankly, it's because all candidates are treated like shit in the media. Just different varieties of fertilizer tailored to each one,

Plus whatever otehr slings and arrows are tossed at each candidate.

I understand why Clinton support feel their candidate i being picked on.

I know why Sanders supporters (of whom I am one) feel that way.

And I can certainly understand why O'Malley.s supporters may also.

I don't really want to set off a competition on who's candidate is most picked on

And he doesn't have honesty, trustworthiness, or integrityroblems like Hillary does either. He is authentic.

Because for all the noise about how skillful HRC is supposed to be at dealing with attacks, she hasn't shown it.

Hmmmm still has a 74 % chance of winning...57% in the GE....sounds like survival to me...how about You?

Peachy, even.

she is not even paying attention to Sanders right now....she is running HER race....pacing herself for the long haul....

And all of the Odds site support this scenario....she has a 74% chance of winning her primary....sounds pretty peachy to me...

She has a 57% chance of winning the General....where her closest competitor only has a 35% chance of winning HIS Primary....

So yeah....I would say things are going just swell....

(don't think I didn't notice the backpedal....it went from "she's not surviving" to "everything is just going swell"....yeah I noticed that)

maybe you're talking to yourself?

I'll wait.

surviving them?

Epic fail....

sure.

I also didnt use the word "withstanding". Keep trying.

Because for all the noise about how skillful HRC is supposed to be at dealing with attacks, she hasn't shown it.

When exactly the opposite is true....she IS surviving the attacks against her.....quite swimmingly actually!

Sanders should take notes....just in case!

still wrong! What part of having a 74% chance of winning the Primary....and 57% chance of winning the General, against 43%.... by a guy who only has a 35% chance of winning HIS not own Primary..... "not dealing with the attacks well"? What are you smoking today....because I want some...

and YOUR party? You are supporting the NON-Democrat....I might remind you...he is NOT a Democrat....by his OWN words. And you are worried about "hurting the brand"???

I would do that too..... if I didn't like reality so much anymore!

The laser-like focus shines through all of your well thought out arguments.

what happened to yours? Laser broke?

It's why my posts are disjointed, logically incoherent, full of spelling errors, and have almost nothing to do with the topic or the subthread I'm posting in.

It's also why I misrepresent the words of the person I'm responding to, and when called on it, i pretend like my being flat-out and directly proven to be objectively wrong, means I ....won the argument. (I know, pretty slick, huh?)

It would be maddening to the people I'm ostensibly "debating"' under normal circumstances, but in my experience they've learned not to take the bargling gibberish of certain people on this site seriously, so they generally just laugh, even if they might be slightly annoyed at the time waste factor.

positions....like "she is not doing so well against the attacks".....its just argle bargle right?

I'll be here....

Rendell's out to get her, too, huh.

And IA and NH are significant since they're the states where people are paying the most attention. And they're both states that Democrats have won 5 of the last 6 elections.

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary Florida Times-Union
Clinton 52, Sanders 20, Biden 15, O'Malley 1, Chafee 4, Webb 1 Clinton +32

Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary FOX 5/Morris News
Clinton 51, Sanders 24, Biden 15, Webb 0, O'Malley 0, Chafee 5 Clinton +27

with NH and IA general election polls? We know that Hillary is ahead in the primary. That's not what this thread is about.

Iowa and New Hampshire are predominantly WHITE states!

Georgia and Florida not so much huh?.....look what happens when you poll some minorities!

Bernie CANNOT win without significant numbers of Blacks, Hispanics and Women leaving the HRC camp....

good luck with that!

So comparing to some primary poll is irrelevant. And IA and NH are paying a lot more attention to the candidates at this point in time, since they are the first 2 states and there's a lot of campaigning there. So their general election results have more meaning. The fact that Hillary's favorables is 32-61 in Iowa, and not all that much better in NH has to give you pause if you'd actually think about that.

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus NBC/Marist
Clinton 38, Sanders 27, Biden 20, O'Malley 4, Webb 2, Chafee 1 Clinton +11

But Sanders has better favorables with Iowa Democrats than her, so there's certainly room for him to grow.

the difference is painfully obvious...White People!

Oh and take Biden out of the above poll numbers....and guess what else happens?

So I'm not sure why IA and NH don't matter now.

or New Hampshire.....most of whom are loyal Hillary Clinton supporters...THAT my friend is what I am talking about....

Bernie Sanders CANNOT win without significant numbers of Black people.....THEY voted almost to a 1 for President Obama....White people in Iowa and New Hampshire....not so much!

And Sanders will get the overwhelming majority of blacks votes in the general election.

But they are a key reason why Sanders will not be the nominee.

Thats just silly talk.

She has lots of Black support already...he cannot win on White votes alone...period.

Florida is Florida 75.0 white and 9.9% other.

Georgia 3,150,435 31.4% African American
Florida 2,999,862 15.91% African American

Live in New Hampshire,and Iowa,?

Oh in Florida and Georgia on Sat. Put her back up over that 50% threshhold ....proving my point.

Oh and there are White Democrats that support HRC in Georgia and Florismsmda too....

A lot of people don't know anything about Bernie yet. But they will...

Bernie's surge was the top story tonight on the NBC Evening News. They can't ignore it any more. It's happening.

Go Bernie!!!!!

Iowa isn't really necessary but it helps.

And why would a post celebrating a Democratic defeat have 20+ recs? Ridiculous.

Also, the last Democrat to win while losing both IA and NH was Carter, but he swept the South.

I wouldn't bet on sweeping the more difficult swing states (VA, CO, OH, FL, NM, etc).

But as someone pointed out, losing both makes it very difficult.

Her unfavorable numbers are too high.

My suggestions if HRC is the nominee

1) Hope like hell Trump is the opposition.

2) Rely on the demographics. Turn out minorities and hope to pull out a narrow win. I'm not sure the hard working whites that Clinton extolled in 2008 will be with her in the general this time.

Right now, every candidate is focused on winning their respective primary. Until the nominees are known and start focusing on their opponent, debates have taken place and a large portion of the electorate starts following the race, I think these various hypothetical match-ups are meaningless. Even in NH and IA, I would bet most people aren't paying close attention.

Regardless of who the nominees are, the Democratic Party nominee will more than likely win New Hampshire and probably has at least a 50-50 shot at Iowa. The general election really comes down to 2 states, Florida and Ohio. The Republican nominee probably can't win without *both* of those states.

All that said, it is worth pointing out that Clinton is an extremely polarizing figure with a very poor favorable to unfavorable ratio. For months I've been expecting another big name, neoliberal establishment person to enter the race, because I suspect the Democratic Party is a bit nervous about Clinton being the nominee. The party establishment isn't about to back Sanders and none of the other candidates have gained any traction. I think Sanders has even less of a chance than Trump of being nominated, and that's saying something, because I don't think Trump stands much of a chance.

Unless the Clinton campaign implodes and Biden enters the race, I think Clinton will be the nominee--like it or not. And then you just have to hope she can win Florida or Ohio.

Iowa and New Hampshire is where Hillary has spent the most time. She has blanketed the airwaves with ads produced to make her more likable and help her negatives. And her negatives keep growing. The more people see her the more they don't like her.