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liberal N proud

(60,335 posts)
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 08:16 PM Sep 2015

Nate Silver: ESPN Statistician Says Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders Likely Won't Win Party Nominations

Why, then, have so few Democrats officially endorsed Sanders? First, because Clinton is extremely popular with both elite and rank-and-file Democrats. Her relative lack of competition is a sign of strength, not weakness — she won the “invisible primary” stage of the campaign. Second, because Democrats are right to be concerned about the general election prospects for Sanders, a 74-year-old self-described socialist. Third, because Sanders’s agenda is hostile to moneyed interests within the Democratic Party.

But if Sanders eventually overtook Clinton, the establishment might resign itself to the prospect of nominating him. There are some loose precedents for candidates like Sanders winning their nominations, especially George McGovern in 1972 and Barry Goldwater in 1964. If you’re going to sacrifice a presidential election — and Sanders would be unlikely to prevail next November4 — you’d at least like to shift the window of discourse in your party’s preferred direction.

A Trump nomination would be more of an existential threat to the Republican establishment. He bucks the establishment’s consensus on issues as fundamental to the GOP as taxation and health care, and he’s wobbly on abortion. Splitting with the party on any one of those issues might ordinarily disqualify a candidate. Trump potentially destabilizes the Republicans’ “three-legged stool”: The coalition of fiscal, social and national security conservatives have dominated the party since 1980 or so. But on the issue on which Trump is most conservative — immigration — establishment Republicans worry that he might be so reactionary as to cause long-term damage to the party brand.

Meanwhile, Trump has picked fights with sacred cows like the Club for Growth and Fox News. Most of the conservative media — from the National Review to RedState to Glenn Beck — is anti-Trump.

In certain respects, Trump is engaged in an attempted “hostile takeover” of the Republican Party. Because the downside of nominating him might be so enormous — lasting beyond a single election — the GOP establishment may fight to the death to prevent him from being chosen, even at the price of a brokered convention and a fractured party base.

What Sanders and Trump have in common is they’re both unlikely to be nominated. (If I were laying odds, I’d put either one at something like 15-1 or 20-1 against.) But it’s for different reasons. Sanders is losing now, but if he eventually overtakes Clinton — and if Biden fails to come to the establishment’s rescue — his position might become more viable. Trump is nominally winning, but the GOP race is much more volatile. And if he doesn’t lose steam on his own accord, the Republican establishment will use every tool at its disposal to stop him.


.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stop-comparing-donald-trump-and-bernie-sanders/

82 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Nate Silver: ESPN Statistician Says Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders Likely Won't Win Party Nominations (Original Post) liberal N proud Sep 2015 OP
The Trump thing is much more entertaining. DCBob Sep 2015 #1
He's like Mussolini left-of-center2012 Sep 2015 #5
I remember that vid of Mussolini giving some speech then crossing his arms with profound arrogance. DCBob Sep 2015 #7
yeah well, if you all consider Mussolini amusing... ellenrr Oct 2015 #69
Not Mussolini.. Trump. DCBob Oct 2015 #81
Put another way, to shoot the long odds Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #2
To be fair, Sanders has never insulted anybody here. mythology Oct 2015 #47
Bernie will not win the DNC nomination because he will not get enough delegates. Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #3
The ol, "The Superdelegates will Cheat for Hillary!" fantasy! AgingAmerican Sep 2015 #4
Superdelegates have been around for many years, they are up for grabs, each candidate can get the Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #8
I was a delegate for McGovern, because the sadoldgirl Sep 2015 #13
Likewise, if Bernie shoild be awarded the nomination without the proper amount of delegates there Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #15
Super delegates aren't bound. kenfrequed Sep 2015 #19
^^ this nt artislife Sep 2015 #20
Lets not forget that McGovern only won one state in the the GE. You are right, in theory, demosincebirth Sep 2015 #31
Yep. What you said. ^ GoneFishin Oct 2015 #57
I wonder how "Cheating" is being defined here? ... 1StrongBlackMan Oct 2015 #53
+1 Hoyt Oct 2015 #80
lets not forget the near civil war of 2008 restorefreedom Sep 2015 #30
Study the process of the DNC nomination process. This doesnt have anything to do with the Civil War Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #34
its not the bernie supporters who want a coronation restorefreedom Sep 2015 #35
Then not forgetting about the Civil War sounded to me as trickery to have Bernie coronated. Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #36
he will win on his own restorefreedom Sep 2015 #37
And he will not be the nominee either whether he "hides behind DWS and DNC" or not, he isnt going to Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #38
he will have the votes and the public's will. nt restorefreedom Sep 2015 #39
Where is he going to get the votes, Iowa and NH? That will give him Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #40
he's gonna win more states than that restorefreedom Sep 2015 #42
538 has been wrong before about Trump and Sanders jfern Sep 2015 #6
What is 538's overall record? liberal N proud Sep 2015 #9
Have they made bullshit predictions about primaries before? jfern Sep 2015 #11
Nate Silver said Obama was the heavy favorite to win in 2012 in June mythology Oct 2015 #49
An incombent? How brave! artislife Oct 2015 #51
We're talking about a primary, which is totally different jfern Oct 2015 #55
Did not know Sanders and Trump had run before. Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #61
No, they've just been ridiculously wrong about this election jfern Oct 2015 #62
"Sanders’s agenda is hostile to moneyed interests within the Democratic Party." Bingo! Garrett78 Sep 2015 #10
Sanders has shocked TPTB to the core, there won't be another opportunity for such a campaign again Fumesucker Sep 2015 #32
+1 Go Vols Oct 2015 #48
I wish you'd stop with that elitist will of the upaloopa Oct 2015 #52
I wish I knew what the hell you were talking about. Garrett78 Oct 2015 #64
Nate Silver can predict anything rainbow fish Sep 2015 #12
These guys keep plugging in their numbers, completely oblivious to the seething anger of the proles. frylock Sep 2015 #14
written prior to today's poll -- whoops! tomm2thumbs Sep 2015 #16
2016 is a test for America. Whether we can pull this thing away from Ron Green Sep 2015 #17
Silver will be revising his estimates a few more times kenfrequed Sep 2015 #18
I really do think Trump will be the republican nom Puzzledtraveller Sep 2015 #21
A Trump nom would be as shocking as a Sanders nom. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #22
You are definitely wrong oberliner Sep 2015 #23
Open Letter to Elizabeth Elizabeth Warren: Get Your Ass in the Damn Race Already Victor1212 Sep 2015 #24
Correct.. they wont. DCBob Sep 2015 #25
Nate also said there was a 25% chance Walker would be the nominee. ram2008 Sep 2015 #26
I think he just hit the 75% target! liberal N proud Sep 2015 #27
If Trump hadn't run and become a media sensation... Garrett78 Sep 2015 #28
Good Ole Silver--trying and trying for that self-fulfilling prophesy. merrily Sep 2015 #29
Was he wrong before? Sliceo Oct 2015 #44
Does ESPN say Bernie Sanders will win yuiyoshida Sep 2015 #33
The powers that be! DWS! DLC! & Cheating Hillary versus LuvLoogie Sep 2015 #41
Laying the ground work? leftofcool Oct 2015 #50
You should reread my post LuvLoogie Oct 2015 #66
I don't think you represent your side well upaloopa Oct 2015 #56
You should know that I am all in for Hillary. LuvLoogie Oct 2015 #65
I guess I didn't see the sarcasm upaloopa Oct 2015 #73
Trump is still making this bull shit republican party onecent Oct 2015 #43
. Capt. Obvious Oct 2015 #45
AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service Capt. Obvious Oct 2015 #46
the alert trolls are out again. HooptieWagon Oct 2015 #54
Oh, I'm not a troll. I have a constitutionatl right to my own opinion and my right to vote for onecent Oct 2015 #67
Republicans aren't welcome here. HooptieWagon Oct 2015 #68
I BET YOU THINK YOU ARE ALWAYS RIGHT DON'T YOU??I have been a registered demo. most of my 70 years onecent Oct 2015 #82
This is a "hate Trump" forum,you should look for another place. sufrommich Oct 2015 #70
You should probably take a closer look at who you're defending.nt sufrommich Oct 2015 #71
The wheels on the bus go round and round..... MADem Oct 2015 #58
Bullshit. Latest poll has Sanders winning ALL 50 states! zappaman Oct 2015 #59
Have you noticed that in the 12 or 14 times you've tried to flog this, you don't get much response? DisgustipatedinCA Oct 2015 #74
Thanks for noticing! zappaman Oct 2015 #75
Anytime, -----man. DisgustipatedinCA Oct 2015 #76
Well, that's that. no_hypocrisy Oct 2015 #60
Citing likelihood of events doesn't mean calling for elections to be cancelled Sliceo Oct 2015 #63
2016 is a very different campaign Rosa Luxemburg Oct 2015 #72
When We Stand Together - No Citizen Need Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go cantbeserious Oct 2015 #77
Bernie seems to be stuck on the 25-30 pt plateau. riversedge Oct 2015 #78
And Your Point Would Be cantbeserious Oct 2015 #79

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
1. The Trump thing is much more entertaining.
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 08:22 PM
Sep 2015

He's like Mussolini up there on the stage just giving shit to just about everyone and everything.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
7. I remember that vid of Mussolini giving some speech then crossing his arms with profound arrogance.
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 08:54 PM
Sep 2015

Its in this video about 10 secs in.



That's Trump if he wins and becomes President of this country... God forbid.

Capn Sunshine

(14,378 posts)
2. Put another way, to shoot the long odds
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 08:23 PM
Sep 2015

Sanders needs to be more than on his game; he needs to get more money, better state organizations and an in with established party people who control the primary mechanisms in each state.

This is one reason he does not want to insult Hillary or her supporters. Unlike here at DU.
Fortunately the numbers of people influenced by DU are pretty tiny. No offense.

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
47. To be fair, Sanders has never insulted anybody here.
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 03:59 PM
Oct 2015

Some supporters of both Clinton and Sanders have behaved poorly. But others have behaved well. I can't see holding that against either of the candidates.

But I have no real preference between Sanders, Clinton, O'Malley or, in theory, Biden.

 

AgingAmerican

(12,958 posts)
4. The ol, "The Superdelegates will Cheat for Hillary!" fantasy!
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 08:36 PM
Sep 2015

Well, I for one will not vote for her if there is ANY cheating on her behalf. Be it by DWS by limiting debates, or by superdelegates who don't care about the will of Democratic voters.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
8. Superdelegates have been around for many years, they are up for grabs, each candidate can get the
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 08:55 PM
Sep 2015

Endorsements of the super delegates and all Democratic members of the Congress are some of the delegates. BTW, the GOP also has super delegates, this is not cheating during this election nor unusual. I do not want any cheating either, just saying Bernie will not get the required delegate count to get the 2016 DNC nomination.

sadoldgirl

(3,431 posts)
13. I was a delegate for McGovern, because the
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 09:35 PM
Sep 2015

democrats insisted on a change in delegate selection. If McGovern
had won we would still have the same rules.

If Bernie gains the majority of delegates, but the super delegates

stick with HRC, the party will face such a rebellion the likes of

which you have not seen. To me that means that a lot of

democratic (not DEMs) voters will stay home due to disgust.

That will be the great result of pushing super delegates

down the peoples' throat.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
15. Likewise, if Bernie shoild be awarded the nomination without the proper amount of delegates there
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 10:10 PM
Sep 2015

Will be a rebellion. I don't see a pathway for Bernie to get the required delegates.

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)
19. Super delegates aren't bound.
Fri Sep 11, 2015, 12:20 AM
Sep 2015

They can choose to endorse different candidates whenever they want. And some of them will.

I still think the Super delegate system is flawed and undemocratic, but unlike delegates sent from the states that are required to support the candidate that won that state for the first ballot, there is nothing stopping a superdelegate from supporting whoever the hell they want.

demosincebirth

(12,537 posts)
31. Lets not forget that McGovern only won one state in the the GE. You are right, in theory,
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 07:51 PM
Sep 2015

that many democratic voters stood home. That was the only GE that I didn't vote. Right from the get-go, he didn't have snow ball's chance in hell that he could win. Same, I think, would happen to Bernie. I like his ideas, but they will never never pass muster with the majority if the electorate.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
53. I wonder how "Cheating" is being defined here? ...
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 04:54 PM
Oct 2015

I suspect it means, endorsing the candidate some don't support.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
30. lets not forget the near civil war of 2008
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 07:49 PM
Sep 2015

Hillary's campaign try to pull this crap in 2008 and it didn't fly. If another candidate gets the delegate votes and wins the primaries, and the superdelegates try to steal this nomination for Hillary, you can pretty much kiss the Democratic Party goodbye.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
34. Study the process of the DNC nomination process. This doesnt have anything to do with the Civil War
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 08:07 PM
Sep 2015

Did Hillary win the nomination in 2008, no, why, because she did not get enough delegates. The nomination was secured by other territories and super delegates. In 2008 both Obama and Hillary had super delegates, still waiting for Bernie to get the endorsement of some super delegates. I dont think the results will be this close nationwide, ergo the super delegates will get to vote but not the deciding votes.

I dont understand why you think Bernie is entitled to coronation?

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
35. its not the bernie supporters who want a coronation
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 08:10 PM
Sep 2015

My point was that the will of the people whatever it is, has to be respected. The partys already done enough rigging and trickery to tilt this towards Hillary. If they think they're going to steal it for her at the convention, they can forget any votes from people who are disenfranchised in the general.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
36. Then not forgetting about the Civil War sounded to me as trickery to have Bernie coronated.
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 08:23 PM
Sep 2015

I have not read one time a Hillary supporter expecting coronation of Hillary but I have read many others saying about the coronation of Hillary. She does not need the coronation, she can win the nomination without coronation.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
37. he will win on his own
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 08:31 PM
Sep 2015

he doesn't need to cheat to win, and he doesn't have to hide behind Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the DNC because he's afraid to debate his colleagues.

have a nice evening!

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
38. And he will not be the nominee either whether he "hides behind DWS and DNC" or not, he isnt going to
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 08:38 PM
Sep 2015

Delegates needed.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
40. Where is he going to get the votes, Iowa and NH? That will give him
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 08:53 PM
Sep 2015

Less than 100 delegates, he needs 2242 to win.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
6. 538 has been wrong before about Trump and Sanders
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 08:45 PM
Sep 2015

They should stick to predicting general elections in 1 week, rather than primary elections in 6 months.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
11. Have they made bullshit predictions about primaries before?
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 09:25 PM
Sep 2015

My point is the fact that they are able to aggregate polls a week before a general election to get a reasonable prediction that is right most of the time doesn't mean they have any skills at predicting a primary in 6 months.

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
49. Nate Silver said Obama was the heavy favorite to win in 2012 in June
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 04:20 PM
Oct 2015

It was by no means a last minute analysis.

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
51. An incombent? How brave!
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 04:23 PM
Oct 2015

Damn, I should use him before the season starts, before the injuries, before the streaks, before the surprises and join a fantasy baseball league and bet on it.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
62. No, they've just been ridiculously wrong about this election
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 06:51 PM
Oct 2015

They were saying how someone like Webb, and not Biden and certainly not Sanders would make a good anti-Hillary. Idiots.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
10. "Sanders’s agenda is hostile to moneyed interests within the Democratic Party." Bingo!
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 09:20 PM
Sep 2015

As I wrote elsewhere, I've never felt like Sanders has a chance of being nominated and I don't think that's what his campaign is really all about. His campaign is, in his own words, "about creating a grassroots political movement in this country." So that one day we might have a POTUS who truly does represent the will of the people. And not a lesser evil with strong ties to seedy corporations and firms. Because, as we know from numerous surveys, when you set aside that election results are driven by perception and money (and the Cult of Personality) and that most don't really follow politics very closely, large majorities - when asked directly how they feel about various issues - share the same political philosophy as Sanders.

Sanders said, "...no matter who is elected to be president, that person will not be able to address the enormous problems facing the working families of our country. They will not be able to succeed because the power of corporate America, the power of Wall Street, the power of campaign donors is so great that no president alone can stand up to them. That is the truth. People may be uncomfortable about hearing it, but that is the reality. And that is why what this campaign is about is saying loudly and clearly: It is not just about electing Bernie Sanders for president, it is about creating a grassroots political movement in this country."

Lawrence Lessig, being interviewed by Bill Moyers, said, "I mean, we have the data to show this now. There was a Princeton study by Martin Gilens and Ben Page. The largest empirical study of actual policy decisions by our government in the history of our government. And what they did is they related our actual decisions to what the economic elite care about, what the organized interest groups care about, and what the average voter cares about. And when they look at the economic elite, you know, as the percentage of economic elite who support an idea goes up, the probability of it passing goes up. As the organized interests care about something more and more, the probability of it passing goes up. But as the average voter cares about something, it has no effect at all, statistically no effect at all on the probability of it passing. If we can go from zero percent of the average voters caring about something to 100 percent and it doesn't change the probability of it actually being enacted. And when you look at those numbers, that graph, this flat line, that flat line is a metaphor for our democracy. Our democracy is flat lined. Because when you can show clearly there's no relationship between what the average voter cares about, only if it happens to coincide with what the economic elite care about, you've shown that we don't have a democracy anymore."

Robert Jensen wrote, "No matter who votes in elections, powerful unelected forces—the captains of industry and finance—set the parameters of political action. Voting matters, but it matters far less than most people believe, or want to believe. This raises the impolite question of whether democracy and capitalism are compatible. Is political equality possible amid widening economic inequality? Can power be distributed when wealth is concentrated? These questions remain unspeakable in mainstream political circles, even though the economic inequality continues to widen and the distorting effects of concentrated wealth are more evident than ever. The limited successes of the Occupy movement nudged this into view, but this impolite question must be central in our conversations, raised without sectarian rhetoric and with a clearer analysis of the foundational nature of the problem."

We've legalized bribery. Obama's 2nd biggest 'donor' in 2008 was Goldman Sachs, and a Goldman Sachs employee became Treasury Secretary. And there's a revolving door between regulators and the regulated. The foxes are watching the hen house.

Even campaigns themselves have taken to marketing consumer products that have nothing to do with the candidate or issues. And several presidential campaigns have won Ad Age's Marketer of the Year Award (competing against Apple, Coca Cola, etc.). When the Clinton campaign talks about altering the Hillary Clinton brand, that's not a joke--it's just modern day politics.

That's the reality we're up against and have to fight to change. So, no, Sanders isn't going to win. And the comparisons some make to Obama's comeback in 2007/2008 are not apt for a variety of reasons. Obama won states that Sanders simply can't win. Obama was young and charismatic. Obama presented an opportunity to finally have a person of color in the presidency. Obama gave the keynote address at the '04 convention and was an up and coming rock star. Lastly, Obama wasn't "hostile to moneyed interests within the Democratic Party." A CNN poll recently showed that 25% of registered voters haven't heard of Sanders--I doubt that was the case for Obama in 2007.

But Sanders doesn't have to win for his campaign to spark a grassroots campaign that could lead to a Democratic Party that isn't ruled by moneyed interests. One can hope.

Fumesucker

(45,851 posts)
32. Sanders has shocked TPTB to the core, there won't be another opportunity for such a campaign again
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 07:52 PM
Sep 2015

The Powers That Be will make damn sure of that, it's now or never I suspect.

The rules and procedures are already stacked against any outsider, if Bernie doesn't make it those rules will be made far more draconian.

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
52. I wish you'd stop with that elitist will of the
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 04:45 PM
Oct 2015

people shit. Hillary supporters are people whether you admit it or not. I am not a banker or corporation or the 1%.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
64. I wish I knew what the hell you were talking about.
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 09:31 PM
Oct 2015

I never said Clinton supporters weren't people. The fact remains that Clinton, unlike Sanders, doesn't threaten the moneyed interests. They have financed her entire political career.

And the "Sanders isn't electable" or "Sanders is too far left" stuff is BS. The Dem nominee, regardless of who she/he is, will win the blue states and battle over a handful of swing states. And polls do, in fact, demonstrate that when people are asked specific policy questions large majorities are in line with Sanders. But Sanders isn't nominatable. He threatens the moneyed interests and he lacks the name recognition and political infrastructure that Clinton has.

Like it or not, there is a valid leftist critique of Clinton. It's not all right wing smears.

tomm2thumbs

(13,297 posts)
16. written prior to today's poll -- whoops!
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 10:51 PM
Sep 2015

and of course he had already said Sanders had hit his ceiling a month ago or so

Guess Nate is going to need to use his delete and backspace keys a little faster on the draw.

The numbers are overtaking his predictions faster than he can write them.

Ron Green

(9,822 posts)
17. 2016 is a test for America. Whether we can pull this thing away from
Fri Sep 11, 2015, 12:13 AM
Sep 2015

ESPN and Las Vegas and Wall Street and the D.C. Beltway, and bring it back to working people and entrepreneurs in small towns and cities all over the country - or not.

We may yet fail this test, but it's worth a try, a very good try.

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)
18. Silver will be revising his estimates a few more times
Fri Sep 11, 2015, 12:17 AM
Sep 2015

Enten, one of the staff writers has predicted several times that Sanders would not rise as much, that he had or is peaking, and any number of other unreal rationalizations that are mostly spin.

They have had to change their predictions several times. They will be changing them more. Eventually they will have to admit that completely underestimated Sanders.

Puzzledtraveller

(5,937 posts)
21. I really do think Trump will be the republican nom
Fri Sep 11, 2015, 12:45 AM
Sep 2015

I am very hopeful for Sanders but I fear the Clinton machine.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
22. A Trump nom would be as shocking as a Sanders nom.
Fri Sep 11, 2015, 10:01 AM
Sep 2015

Neither is going to happen. The party establishments have far too much to lose.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
23. You are definitely wrong
Fri Sep 11, 2015, 03:49 PM
Sep 2015

He doesn't want to be president. This is for PR and increasingly the brand profile.

Victor1212

(3 posts)
24. Open Letter to Elizabeth Elizabeth Warren: Get Your Ass in the Damn Race Already
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 07:24 PM
Sep 2015

My dad liked to recount a conversation he overheard back in the 1960s, when he was working for American Airlines in Tulsa, Okla, and flying home to the Bronx for free with a complementary first-class ticket. The two oilmen in the row ahead of him on one flight were upset because several of their union workers were heading to New York City on vacation in the same section.

"You can't tell the difference between them and us any more," one lamented to the other, according to dad.

The WWII veteran recounted the conversation to me from time to illustrate why he felt the rich and entitled could not be trusted, because they didn't believe in the idea "we're all in this together" as Americans. I learned to judge people by the content of their character, rather than their credit scores, years later at the Columbia University School of Journalism. However, the repugnant behavior of elites like Donald Trump and the reptilian Koch Brothers - who have been waging class warfare against the faltering middle class since 1980 or so - often reminds me of my dad's convictions about income and class in America.

Their detestable behavior has made me a huge fan of both Democratic Socialism and presidential candidate Bernie Sanders. I've got a "Sanders" bumper sticker on my Toyota FJ Cruiser, but I have to be realistic about his nonexistent chance to win the presidency in a general election even as the polls show him closing in on Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

Bernie is a much better human being than Duh-Donald - his Republican doppleganger - but enjoys the same unfavorable political trajectory. Both are immensely popular in their respective partisan primaries and completely unelectable in a general election.

Why?

Because the vast majority of U.S. voters are still too stupid and lazy to distinguish between extreme totalitarian forms of socialism - like Communism - and Sander's laudable and desirable Democratic Socialism, which is embraced by the highly evolved social democracies of northern Europe.

Studies by The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development have repeatedly found that people on this planet are happiest in those nations. Mostly because their governments protect them from the excesses of parasitical businesses like JP Morgan Chase and silver spoon mofos like Dah-Donald, a fake tough guy who thinks it’s cool to publicly humiliate his employees.

The same imbecile voters who buy into the fiction about Communism and Democratic Socialism being one and the same are equally incapable of grasping the concept that there are extreme forms of capitalism which are even more undesirable than Communism. They include slavery, company towns, piracy, collusion, trusts, predatory lending, peonage, monopolies, and indentured servitude.

These extremes exist at the heart of the conservative thinking of the silver spoons mofos who believe they should be able to take whatever they can overpower, greed is good, and all profit is moral.

What's it all mean?

It means U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D – Mass) - who shares Bernie's views about the evils of predatory capitalism and big banks, but is not a socialist - needs to get off her friggn ass and get in the goddamn race already. Because she is electable. Incredibly electable.

This is her time. Not Hillary’s or even Bernie’s - bless his heart.

http://www.cynicaltimes.org/articles/open-letter-to-elizabeth-warren-get-your-ass-in-the-damn-race-already-318.htm

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
28. If Trump hadn't run and become a media sensation...
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 07:40 PM
Sep 2015

I think Walker would still be in the race and would have pretty decent odds. Not that Walker was running a very good campaign, but I think it's Trump-mania that really did him in.

As Silver points out, Walker had just 14 minutes to speak in the 2 debates combined.

Anyway, good riddance.

yuiyoshida

(41,831 posts)
33. Does ESPN say Bernie Sanders will win
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 07:58 PM
Sep 2015

The Heisman Trophy this year? Will he get The MLB mOST valuable player award? Will he receive the Willy McCovy Award or be the Cy Young award winner this year? Well Bernie win the ESPY AWARD THIS year?

My question is, what does ESPN know about picking Political winners, when they Can't even predict who will be in the World Series or who will win the Superbowl this year?

ESPN should stick with Sports...and leave picking Political candidates to the voters, or take it to Vegas, where they can put their money where their mouth is.

LuvLoogie

(7,009 posts)
41. The powers that be! DWS! DLC! & Cheating Hillary versus
Mon Sep 21, 2015, 09:09 PM
Sep 2015

The Will of the People!

I can see where this is going.

There will be no authentic outcome other than a Bernie Sanders win. No genuine primary without a Hillary loss.

A Hillary win is proof of cheating! She weighs as much as a duck!

leftofcool

(19,460 posts)
50. Laying the ground work?
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 04:21 PM
Oct 2015

That way when Hillary wins fair and square you can say she cheated to get it?

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
56. I don't think you represent your side well
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 05:01 PM
Oct 2015

You don't inspire people with that. I like Bernie and what you say won't change that. I support Hillary.
I am sorry Bernie attracts some of the people he does.

onecent

(6,096 posts)
43. Trump is still making this bull shit republican party
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 03:17 PM
Oct 2015

shit their pants daily. I LOVE THE GUY and would vote for him in a heartbeat!!!

If you wish to send hate mail to me, your opinion does not matter, so save your breath.

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
46. AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 03:51 PM
Oct 2015
On Fri Oct 9, 2015, 03:43 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

Trump is still making this bull shit republican party
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=660265

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Poster loves Trump and ould vote for Trump in a heartbeat! Clear TOS violation.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Fri Oct 9, 2015, 03:50 PM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Andre Ellington is now listed as probable for Sunday's game. It's dicey playing someone coming off of injury, especially with Bowles' tendency to protect his running backs. I have Ellington as a flex in two leagues but am going to go with Dough Martin in one and Alfred "Ugh" Morris in the other. Convince me otherwise.
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No Pukes.
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: So what? The poster would vote for Trump over the other Republicans . If voting for someone is a violation of the TOS I will delete my account immediately.


Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

onecent

(6,096 posts)
67. Oh, I'm not a troll. I have a constitutionatl right to my own opinion and my right to vote for
Sat Oct 10, 2015, 09:33 AM
Oct 2015

whomever I wish. It is too bad that DU has come to the point where it is not OK to say that I would rather have a
president who doesn't lie to us, that DOESN'T WANT TO GO TO WAR ON A DIME and that wants to put some money
back into the poor man's pockets.

We paid into social security and all seniors should expect a return.

The middle class use to run America....where are we now. Look in every town and see the strip malls that are empty. EMPTY.
Check our your food prices and the upscale prices of time warner and direct tv and your utilities.

If this is what you wall want to mess with for the next 8 years, vote for bush or vote for Hillary...doesn't make any difference.....
trump isn't the ideal person but he sure has given me some hope that he wlil not listen to
the lobbyists.....Our Presidents haven't run this country for well over 20 years......and the lobbyist love us stupid voters more each year.

I like it when people stand up for the little people and US SENIORS.

I don't feel I disrupt this forum, because I have a diffferent belief than others here.

If this is a HATE TRUMP form, I will look for another place ...cuz I am sick of looking at the bushes and the Clintons and now the
republican party and Fox news...think they still KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING. Is everyone blind?????

There is no republican party. There isn't going to be and I seriously doubt if Trump will win. But I can genuinely say I am enjoying
every bit of this political stuff on tv this year because I am getting LOTS OF LAUGHS...AND WE ALL NEED MORE LAUGHS.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
68. Republicans aren't welcome here.
Sat Oct 10, 2015, 09:38 AM
Oct 2015

This Forum is for primarily Democrats, though liberal-leaning Independants also post here. It looks like your stay may be a short one. Bye.

onecent

(6,096 posts)
82. I BET YOU THINK YOU ARE ALWAYS RIGHT DON'T YOU??I have been a registered demo. most of my 70 years
Sat Oct 10, 2015, 07:23 PM
Oct 2015

and i worked for the the democratic headquarters in Kansas City, Missouri on Burlington Avenue in the Northand
for 8 years during the Horrible years we had to put up with Bush. (this forum is for primarily democrats, what about for people
that are intelligent enough to listen, read, research and see if there is something better...or someone better among us who wants
what the simple middle class people want?)
What kind of a person do you think you are that you can tell me I am a republican therefore cannot post here? I am 70
years old and proud to be a democrat and always will be.

You KNOW NOTHING ABOUT ME.....but i can tell you this.

I can change.....I won't vote for someone who want to stay in war zones for the next 40 years
I can vote for a president who won't send my grandchildren over to other countries to fight for oil, money and greed.
I won't vote for people that want to mess with social security and unemployment when we have put our
money into these things for years with the intent of getting it back.
I won't vote for someone who wants to make the rich richer at the middle class people's expense.
So if you think you are powerful enough to get me permanently booted out of here...do it....
I've been kicked out of better places, though not lately.
I will not vote for people that are told what to do by the Koch brothers..

and if you do..then I think this is going to be a sad sad world. There isn't a republican I would consider worthy
or qualified...but I like people who AREN'T AFRAID TO SPEAK THE TRUTH...WHO AREN'T AFRAID TO SPEAK UP AND SAY
WHAT THEY THINK EVEN IF IT ISN'T THE POPULAR THING TO DO. I admire people who fight for the under dogs and I want my grandchildren (all 16 of them) to have CAREERS, no jobs, --- benefits, social security, pensions, vacations, holidays and be able to retire before they
are 75.

That's all I want buddy, so if you got a problem with something I say - sorry we disagree...and we can just agree that we disagree...
that's kind of what I primarily thought these forums were for. Bye Bye... yourself






sufrommich

(22,871 posts)
70. This is a "hate Trump" forum,you should look for another place.
Sat Oct 10, 2015, 09:58 AM
Oct 2015

Anyone who thinks Trump is one of the good guys doesn't belong here.

 

DisgustipatedinCA

(12,530 posts)
74. Have you noticed that in the 12 or 14 times you've tried to flog this, you don't get much response?
Sat Oct 10, 2015, 12:10 PM
Oct 2015

I have.

no_hypocrisy

(46,117 posts)
60. Well, that's that.
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 05:43 PM
Oct 2015

Cancel the primaries and the conventions.

Let's have a show of hands right now.

Silver doesn't trust democracy.

 

Sliceo

(39 posts)
63. Citing likelihood of events doesn't mean calling for elections to be cancelled
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 07:12 PM
Oct 2015

Why do I even have to explain it to anyone?

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