I say that for two main reasons. One, Sanders continues to build positive momentum in the States which currently have the most active contests; Iowa and New Hampshire. Actually he is in gaining support in South Carolina also, the third State to have a contest, though he remains far behind there for the moment - but the same could once be said about Iowa before Sanders began actively campaigning there. The take away from this is obvious, when more people are exposed to Sanders, his popularity continues to build. Anyone who objectively observes national coverage of the Presidential campaigns however would have to agree that the media is under reporting Sanders relative to his status in the race, unlike Clinton, Bush Trump, and even Biden. And the latter group of politicians already entered the race with extremely high voter recognition levels, unlike Sanders.

Second, even looking at the National polling - it is rare indeed when a high profile new name gets thrown into the polling mix for the earlier candidates not to have their own poling numbers drop at least somewhat. The pie is now being divided into more pieces, the natural tendency is for the size of each piece to shrink. It is very rare when a new entry into the field draws all of their support from one candidate and none from another. O'Malley, Webb and Chaffee had virtually no support to begin with, so Biden can't steal much of anything from them in these polls. With Biden's profile being raised he is going to draw support from where it already exists, and that means from Hillary and Bernie. But Biden isn't even close to pulling support equally from Hillary and from Bernie, he is pulling votes away from Hillary much more so than he is from Bernie. Sanders is within the margin of error for holding steady in a larger more competitive field, Hillary is not.Given that Biden of late has gotten much more national press, very sympathetic for the most part, than Bernie who many know little about, the fact that Sanders is holding steadily nationally while continuing to advance where is is actively campaigning signals that his surge continues.

Thanks Tom!....sounds like the more probable scenario.

This was updated today







The trend continues


P.S. Biden running is doubtful.

I expected her numbers to drop somewhat, given that she started the race with enormous name recognition, but that's some slope!

I propose that their polling trends will move toward 33 1/3.

Anyone who moves significantly above that as the undecideds disappear will be moving at the cost of one of the other 2.

There will be only so many degrees of freedom.

... cool story bro.