2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton Trounces Trump By 47 Points With Latino Voters, Leads 53-40 With All Voters
Dems doing well in this area. But, Trump says he loves Latino's --ha ha.
http://www.politicususa.com/2015/09/12/clinton-trounces-trump-47-points-latino-voters-leads-53-40-voters.html
Clinton Trounces Trump By 47 Points With Latino Voters, Leads 53-40 With All Voters
By: Keith Brekhus more from Keith Brekhus
Saturday, September, 12th, 2015, 2:57 pm
An MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist poll released on Friday reiterates Donald Trumps fatal flaw in his bid to become president. He is loathed by Latino voters. The MSNBC survey of 1,115 registered voters, including 432 registered Latino voters, finds Trump losing badly to either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden. Trump trails Clinton 53-40 overall. With Latino voters, Clinton crushes Trump by a resounding 69-22 margin.
Vice President Joe Biden, who may be contemplating a presidential run, but has not announced his candidacy, fares even better than Clinton in the MSNBC poll. Biden leads Trump 56-38 overall, and 71-20 with Latino voters.
Inexplicably, the poll does not appear to have tested a hypothetical match up between Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, even though Sanders is currently leading the Democratic field in both New Hampshire and Iowa. If that contest was polled, the results are not reflected in MSNBCs write up of the recent survey. Presumably, given Trumps weak showing against other Democrats, he would also poll poorly against Senator Sanders.............
djean111
(14,255 posts)riversedge
(70,299 posts)is released (the entire poll). Maddow stated it is not known if Sanders was omitted from the questions or the polling company did not release the results. She just got a peek preview.
madville
(7,412 posts)While they actually represent 17% of The population?
That pretty much discredits the general election matchup results in this poll, an actual representation would have much closer results.
The results make since as far as the Latino only results, of course the numbers that matter will be swing states like always.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Where does it state that?
The poll was commissioned by MSNBC and Telemundo but performed by Marist University.
madville
(7,412 posts)"MSNBC survey of 1,115 registered voters, including 432 registered Latino voters"
I just did it on the calculator, it's actually 39% which is still weighting the poll more than double actual Latino demographic representation.
All other polls that are more in line demographically have Clinton-Trump even with MOE the last couple of weeks for example.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Latinos were only 10% of the electorate in 012:
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
so maybe with population growth and outreach it can be grown to 11%, 12% ???
I doubt any pollster would be dumb enough to project they will be 39% of the voting population. It could be the pollster oversampled them to get a better view of how they are voting but only used them as 10% -12% of the sample. I have seen African Americans oversampled the same way.
I can't believe any pollster would be that stupid, especially Marist University.
jfern
(5,204 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)You need to know
% White
% African American
% Asian
% Other
jfern
(5,204 posts)Too much effort to fully unskew this poll with everything.
youceyec
(394 posts)Politics usa and u guys are reading poll article incorrectly
From msnbc
The poll of hypothetical match-ups for 2016 was
conducted Aug. 26 to Sept. 9 of 1,115 registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The second match up polled 432 registered Latino voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percentage points.
*****
Clearly, the 1115 registered voters refers to all voters. Also, just from a common sense stand point why would marist waste time and money on a poll with 40% latino that would end up being completely meaningless?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)"The poll of hypothetical match-ups for 2016 was conducted Aug. 26 to Sept. 9 of 1,115 registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The second match up polled 432 registered Latino voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percentage points."
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/poll-democrats-claim-resounding-latino-support-over-gop
Lucky Luciano
(11,258 posts)I might get a 30+ point edge!
Gothmog
(145,548 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Thank you in advance.
youceyec
(394 posts)Please see post 11 above
SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)?
SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)We are doing our best to get his words in Spanish and into the ears of my gente.
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)On the other hand, I love Castro and hope she sticks with him. If the GOP selects Bush, then Castro will be 100% required, since we will see Mrs. Bush suddenly morph into full on Carmen Miranda.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He and Hillary fit well together and compliment each other well.
Clinton/Castro 2016 will look great on bumper sticker!
artislife
(9,497 posts)They are posting in English/Spanish...the video with Bernie speaking about the farm workers in 2008 is getting heavy rotation in other FB groups for Latinos for Bernie.
They want to show how he has always cared. This is a push to show him through the ages.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)And, no --- I'm NOT saying HC is 'Daffy Duck'.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Clinton 50%, Rubio 44%
Clinton 49%, Bush 45%
Clinton 52%, Cruz 41%
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/poll-democrats-claim-resounding-latino-support-over-gop