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riversedge

(70,299 posts)
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 08:56 PM Sep 2015

Clinton Trounces Trump By 47 Points With Latino Voters, Leads 53-40 With All Voters

Dems doing well in this area. But, Trump says he loves Latino's --ha ha.


http://www.politicususa.com/2015/09/12/clinton-trounces-trump-47-points-latino-voters-leads-53-40-voters.html


Clinton Trounces Trump By 47 Points With Latino Voters, Leads 53-40 With All Voters


By: Keith Brekhus more from Keith Brekhus

Saturday, September, 12th, 2015, 2:57 pm


An MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist poll released on Friday reiterates Donald Trump’s fatal flaw in his bid to become president. He is loathed by Latino voters. The MSNBC survey of 1,115 registered voters, including 432 registered Latino voters, finds Trump losing badly to either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden. Trump trails Clinton 53-40 overall. With Latino voters, Clinton crushes Trump by a resounding 69-22 margin.

Vice President Joe Biden, who may be contemplating a presidential run, but has not announced his candidacy, fares even better than Clinton in the MSNBC poll. Biden leads Trump 56-38 overall, and 71-20 with Latino voters.

Inexplicably, the poll does not appear to have tested a hypothetical match up between Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, even though Sanders is currently leading the Democratic field in both New Hampshire and Iowa. If that contest was polled, the results are not reflected in MSNBC’s write up of the recent survey. Presumably, given Trump’s weak showing against other Democrats, he would also poll poorly against Senator Sanders.............

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Clinton Trounces Trump By 47 Points With Latino Voters, Leads 53-40 With All Voters (Original Post) riversedge Sep 2015 OP
I doubt it was by accident that Bernie's numbers are not there. n/t djean111 Sep 2015 #1
We have to wait till Monday when this poll riversedge Sep 2015 #4
40% of those polled were Latino? madville Sep 2015 #2
Where does it state that? DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #3
The part of the OP madville Sep 2015 #5
You are right but there might be an alternate explanation. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #7
I get Trump by 2 points against Hillary if Hispanics are 12% jfern Sep 2015 #10
How? DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #13
I just assumed everything else was the right proportion jfern Sep 2015 #14
no they didn't youceyec Sep 2015 #11
There were two different polls.. one with all registered voters and one with Latinos. DCBob Sep 2015 #21
For a control experiment, let's poll trump vs me, Lucky Luciano, with Latinos. Lucky Luciano Sep 2015 #6
These are great polling numbers Gothmog Sep 2015 #8
Please respond to Post 7 DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #9
hey youceyec Sep 2015 #12
Hey, both of you please check out post 15. SonderWoman Sep 2015 #15
joke? youceyec Sep 2015 #20
Of course. SonderWoman Sep 2015 #24
....so far.... artislife Sep 2015 #16
If the GOP selects Trump she might not even need Castro, in which case the VP slot is open. McCamy Taylor Sep 2015 #17
I think we still need Castro.. DCBob Sep 2015 #23
One of the many flagship FB groups artislife Sep 2015 #18
Daffy Duck would beat Trump with Latinos left-of-center2012 Sep 2015 #19
Clinton also beats Rubio, Bush and Cruz DCBob Sep 2015 #22

riversedge

(70,299 posts)
4. We have to wait till Monday when this poll
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 09:59 PM
Sep 2015

is released (the entire poll). Maddow stated it is not known if Sanders was omitted from the questions or the polling company did not release the results. She just got a peek preview.

madville

(7,412 posts)
2. 40% of those polled were Latino?
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 09:46 PM
Sep 2015

While they actually represent 17% of The population?

That pretty much discredits the general election matchup results in this poll, an actual representation would have much closer results.

The results make since as far as the Latino only results, of course the numbers that matter will be swing states like always.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
3. Where does it state that?
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 09:51 PM
Sep 2015

Where does it state that?


40% of those polled were Latino?



The poll was commissioned by MSNBC and Telemundo but performed by Marist University.


madville

(7,412 posts)
5. The part of the OP
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 10:05 PM
Sep 2015

"MSNBC survey of 1,115 registered voters, including 432 registered Latino voters"

I just did it on the calculator, it's actually 39% which is still weighting the poll more than double actual Latino demographic representation.

All other polls that are more in line demographically have Clinton-Trump even with MOE the last couple of weeks for example.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
7. You are right but there might be an alternate explanation.
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 10:14 PM
Sep 2015

Latinos were only 10% of the electorate in 012:

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

so maybe with population growth and outreach it can be grown to 11%, 12% ???

I doubt any pollster would be dumb enough to project they will be 39% of the voting population. It could be the pollster oversampled them to get a better view of how they are voting but only used them as 10% -12% of the sample. I have seen African Americans oversampled the same way.

I can't believe any pollster would be that stupid, especially Marist University.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
14. I just assumed everything else was the right proportion
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 11:08 PM
Sep 2015

Too much effort to fully unskew this poll with everything.

 

youceyec

(394 posts)
11. no they didn't
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 10:33 PM
Sep 2015

Politics usa and u guys are reading poll article incorrectly

From msnbc

The poll of hypothetical match-ups for 2016 was
conducted Aug. 26 to Sept. 9 of 1,115 registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The second match up polled 432 registered Latino voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percentage points.

*****

Clearly, the 1115 registered voters refers to all voters. Also, just from a common sense stand point why would marist waste time and money on a poll with 40% latino that would end up being completely meaningless?

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
21. There were two different polls.. one with all registered voters and one with Latinos.
Sun Sep 13, 2015, 07:58 AM
Sep 2015

"The poll of hypothetical match-ups for 2016 was conducted Aug. 26 to Sept. 9 of 1,115 registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The second match up polled 432 registered Latino voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percentage points."

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/poll-democrats-claim-resounding-latino-support-over-gop

Lucky Luciano

(11,258 posts)
6. For a control experiment, let's poll trump vs me, Lucky Luciano, with Latinos.
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 10:08 PM
Sep 2015

I might get a 30+ point edge!

McCamy Taylor

(19,240 posts)
17. If the GOP selects Trump she might not even need Castro, in which case the VP slot is open.
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 11:21 PM
Sep 2015

On the other hand, I love Castro and hope she sticks with him. If the GOP selects Bush, then Castro will be 100% required, since we will see Mrs. Bush suddenly morph into full on Carmen Miranda.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
23. I think we still need Castro..
Sun Sep 13, 2015, 08:38 AM
Sep 2015

He and Hillary fit well together and compliment each other well.

Clinton/Castro 2016 will look great on bumper sticker!

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
18. One of the many flagship FB groups
Sat Sep 12, 2015, 11:29 PM
Sep 2015
https://www.facebook.com/LatinosPROBernie?fref=nf


They are posting in English/Spanish...the video with Bernie speaking about the farm workers in 2008 is getting heavy rotation in other FB groups for Latinos for Bernie.

They want to show how he has always cared. This is a push to show him through the ages.

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