2016 Postmortem

grantcart

(53,061 posts) Sun Jul 22, 2012, 01:21 PM Jul 2012

Romney falling like a brick on Intrade (38.5), Nate Silver downgrades to 32%

At the time of writing he is down to 38.5%, which is incredibly low. If it were to drop much further I would like to buy it because after the convention he will get a bump and the odds of it improving to somewhere around 42 in the next 30 days should be very good.

it really can't go much lower.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475

Nate Silver has taken another point off and has him now at 32% chance of winning the electoral college.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/?hp

He also has a long statistical explanation documenting that incumbents will get more of the undecideds and over perform the polls

What do we see here? For the most part, the incumbent-party and challenging candidates get a higher share of the vote than they do in the polls, which simply reflects the fact that some number of undecided voter will migrate into their camps.

The reason for this is that incumbents negatives are well defined. Anyone who is going to vote against the President because, for example, he is Black went into his negative column years ago. His negatives are not going to move much.

For the challenger, however, there is a lot of unknowns. The more the challenger campaigns the more windows that are opened to create a negative. This has been universally true in modern campaigning but now candidate has been more adept at adding windows to add negatives than Mitt Romney, the man is a modern master. The more he campaigns the higher his negatives go. Mitts best strategy right now is to get the nomination and then fall of his horse the day after and go into a coma and then have a miracle recovery two weeks before the election. Seriously Mitt, you should consider it.

11 replies

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Romney falling like a brick on Intrade (38.5), Nate Silver downgrades to 32% (Original Post) grantcart Jul 2012 OP

Great, but ...... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.......... enough Jul 2012 #1

Yes the $ will start to flow but for now it's good to see him flamingdem Jul 2012 #2

not sure rtracey Jul 2012 #6

I agree quaker bill Jul 2012 #9

K&R Tarheel_Dem Jul 2012 #3

University of Iowa futures market is pricing Romney at 38.5%... brooklynite Jul 2012 #4

"It really can't go much lower" direct quote. Stuart G Jul 2012 #5

You missed the preceding sentence grantcart Jul 2012 #7

The convention is the wild card. The Paulites and other teabaggers could turn it into alfredo Jul 2012 #8

I'm looking forward to that pscot Jul 2012 #10

They say Republicans don't fall in love, they fall in line. The question is: alfredo Jul 2012 #11

enough

(13,259 posts)

1. Great, but ...... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$..........

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Jul 22, 2012, 02:01 PM

Jul 2012

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)

2. Yes the $ will start to flow but for now it's good to see him

Reply to enough (Reply #1)

Sun Jul 22, 2012, 02:18 PM

Jul 2012

dropping like a rock.

The Rock Romney (Falling Rock Zone)

rtracey

(2,062 posts)

6. not sure

Reply to flamingdem (Reply #2)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 12:01 PM

Jul 2012

Not sure the cash will help, I believe the public has been flooded with campaign ads. There is not much else Romney can say about Obama that has not been said. The right are voting right, the left- left, and the independents, well they are just holding on....This election is about what happens in September - Nov 5....

quaker bill

(8,224 posts)

9. I agree

Reply to rtracey (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 08:05 PM

Jul 2012

Republicans are experiencing the unintended consequence of a non-stop 4 year trash Obama fest. Much of it has been debunked by reality, and everybody has already heard it. Those who are sold have been sold for years, those who haven't bought it already will be unimpressed by more of the same tired BS. They can spend all the money they want, it is just as likely to energize those who are sick of it, as it will energize those impressed by it.

If they had played nice for a while, been reasonale for even a moment, they might have some small ration of credibility. They haven't and therefore they don't.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,235 posts)

3. K&R

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Jul 22, 2012, 07:55 PM

Jul 2012

brooklynite

(94,598 posts)

4. University of Iowa futures market is pricing Romney at 38.5%...

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Jul 22, 2012, 08:10 PM

Jul 2012

with a vote share projection of 51.2% for Obama to 47.7% for Romney.

http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres12.html

Stuart G

(38,436 posts)

5. "It really can't go much lower" direct quote.

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 11:52 AM

Jul 2012

That is something one should never say about any stock, equities purchase...etc..

It can go lower, and often does..

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

7. You missed the preceding sentence

Reply to Stuart G (Reply #5)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 12:02 PM

Jul 2012

If it were to drop much further I would like to buy it because after the convention he will get a bump and the odds of it improving to somewhere around 42 in the next 30 days should be very good.

Of course it can go lower, it will eventually be worth nothing (or 100).

Between now and the end of the convention I doubt that you will see it go much lower than this even if the tax problem explodes simply because there isn't a lot of liquidity in the market and there is little incentive for people to sell before the end of the Republican convention where there is the highest probability of a peak price. Its quite amazing that anyone would sell below 40 now.

alfredo

(60,074 posts)

8. The convention is the wild card. The Paulites and other teabaggers could turn it into

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 01:44 PM

Jul 2012

a free for all.

If everyone follows the script, and the party platform isn't written in "German", he will get a small bump. If there's a floor fight, all bets are off.

pscot

(21,024 posts)

10. I'm looking forward to that

Reply to alfredo (Reply #8)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 08:26 PM

Jul 2012

If Romney limps into the convention bleeding, the predators will go after bhim.

alfredo

(60,074 posts)

11. They say Republicans don't fall in love, they fall in line. The question is: