2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP/Daily Kos National poll: Romney moves into tie with Obama
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 7/19-7/22. Registered voters. MoE ±3.1% (7/12-15 results):
Q: If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama: 46 (48)
Mitt Romney: 46 (46)
Undecided: 8 (7)
There's no getting around: These are the worst head-to-head numbers for President Obama we've found since we started including this question in our poll every week back in April
On the one hand, you could argue that this movement is just noiseafter all, a two-point change is really no big deal in an ordinary poll. You could also note that we've seen numbers almost this close before: Back at the end of May, Obama led by just a single point. On the other hand, you might take note of the continuous downward trend since June 10. You could also point out that, on the face of things, Obama's had a pretty good (if not very good) couple of weeks in the news, with Romney in an ugly defensive crouch over his unreleased tax returns and fuzzy departure from Bain Capital, and yet the president's numbers have still dropped.
I can't tell you which view is right. But if you step back and look at all the national polling, not just PPP's, it does indeed appear that the race has tightened in the last couple of weeks (and that's true whether or not you include Rasmussen):
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/24/1113254/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Romney-moves-into-tie-with-Obama
Here is a link to the demos:
http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2012/7/19
Is Romney really going to get 17% of the African-American vote? and there is virtually no 'gender gap' now? Interestingly the four days this poll was taken--Romney only won one day, the President has a big lead in the final two days of the poll:
Thursday 48 45 7
Friday 41 49 10
Saturday 50 45 5
Sunday 51 36 13
zeemike
(18,998 posts)I'm not....it has to be kept close...just like the elections in other countries are kept close.
It puts a lot of money in the political industrial complex.
And makes it easy for them to select who they want to be president...cause they can steal just enough votes to determin the outcome of any election.
They are preparing the field for the game and the winner will be decided by the PTB.
Sorry if that sounds cynical but how many times do we have to get fooled before we wake up.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)but I feel the main reason it's close is a lousy economy and not enough job growth. If job growth were strong Obama would be up by 20 points. No matter what the GOP has done to sabotage the recovery (and they have done a lot), people still will blame the incumbent. It's nothing new.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)I could paraphrase an old saying....He who controls the polls controls perception.
And it is not as hard as you think to control something simple like a poll.
qazplm
(3,626 posts)is somehow involved in this conspiracy??
zeemike
(18,998 posts)they don't recruit people for a conspiracy....and in any conspiracy only a hand full of people actually know the big picture.
For example if you wanted to steal an election you would only need one person...and that one person could offer some money to the Foreman who has the key to the warehouse where the voting machines are stored and get him to forget to lock the door at a certain time...then one could sneak in, install the program of do your fiddling around and no one would know shit.
And there are dozens of ways to do stuff like that.
The problem with the left is that they think manipulating the system is too hard or they object to it on grounds of morality...and they are wrong about the first and right about the last...and so they are easily convinced that something else happened...Kerry did not run a good campaign or the people are just nuts...anything but that they have been snookered.
And not the people in charge of the GOP are the sociopaths because they know how to win, and they will not think twoice to do what ever it takes to win...and manipulation and control is their speciality...
That is how they win and we lose.
And bottom line is if you got money you can get any results you want and that includs polls...and no one outside the circle needs to know.
former9thward
(32,025 posts)Voting machines are stored in hundreds, if not thousands, places around the country. These are under the jurisdiction of hundreds of different voting jurisdictions which are headed by both parties. So, no, one person could not do anything. It would take thousands of people for your conspiracy to even get off the ground. I won't go on because you are the type who sees conspiracy in all things.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)A member of the Grassy Knoll society.
But to steal an election you don't have to steal every vote and you don't have to manipulate every precinct or every voting machine...and in fact only a small percentage of them to effect an election.
You think of me as a CTer and I see you as naive....but I have known evil people and know that they have no problem plotting and scheming to get what they want and have no moral restraints to say no to anything that will work...And you think it is unlikely because it is too hard. So it goes.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Based on the REAL WORLD. C'mon folks... tell me, how many Romney stickers do you see around your city? And how many people do you know that are voting for him? How many pro-Romney people have you actually seen online?
There is no way in hell Rmoney is getting 17% of the AA vote, and no gender gap??
I remember the last few elections people got their panties in a bunch over PPP polling which turned out to be total BS. As do all the polls.
The ONLY polls that matter are the POLLING PLACES, where all of us should be volunteering to get our elderly neighbors there to vote, and to make calls to get folks to the POLLS... THOSE are the ones that matter.
I always drop out of DU as we get closer to the election, because of the poll postings... And yeah, how did those polls work out the last few elections?? THey were WRONG.. All of them...
Blaukraut
(5,693 posts)There is no way that Obama is in an upward trajectory (see Thursday, Saturday, Sunday) and has one huge reversal in the midst of that trajectory.
ailsagirl
(22,897 posts)Polls are tricky and this one looks somehow spurious
LiberalFighter
(50,950 posts)I thought is that the numbers don't honestly reflect the geographics. Maybe too much in Utah which might account the low numbers of AA for Obama.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Averaged across the four days with equal weighting to each day gives this:
O R U
Thurs 48 45 7
Friday 41 49 10
Saturday 50 45 5
Sunday 51 36 13
Avg 47.5 43.75 8.75
Quite a difference from what they reported. I suppose they must have just take the total average rather than using the daily averages. That doesnt really make sense because the main point of doing multiple days is to smooth out the up and downs of the daily results.