The average voter has never seen a CU ad; or any political ad for that matter.

The bottom line is that the economy is bad, and that's going to keep the election close.

about Obama for 20 minutes. Nothing gets through to these people once they grab onto something that justifies their hatred of liberals & democrats.

they are way too nosy and who knows what they really want to know.

... those who think there are two kinds of people, and those who don't.

But seriously... it's starting to look to me like there are people who believe everything they hear, and people who believe nothing they hear. I tend to fall into the latter category. Neither is exactly rational, although one might be a little more realistic than the other.

Every poll I see convinces me that about 1/3 of the American people are terminally crazy and would vote for Satan himself if he was the GOP candidate. Unfortunately, a lot of those 1/3 tend to vote recently, whereas the other 2/3 are harder to mobilize.

Remember Gil Scott-Heron and "B Movie?" 26 percent of the registered voters is no mandate. Hell, Mexico just elected a president with 30% of the vote, and they're pretty pissed off about it, too.

An imprecise science. Too many factors influence people that change with daily regularity. Including media reporting, question framing, and even momentary mood. And the list goes on...

And I'd like to see a poll about how many people change their mind because of a poll. Are there really that many weak minded dolts swinging with the breeze out there?

And it makes me depressed as well.

We are witnessing the establishment of an oligarchic society and the masses are cheering for it.

literally?

As soon as we inflict some meaningful damage on hate Radio and Fox "News", democracy will return.

Romney should be wiping the floor with Obama. High unemployment, a stagnant economy and no signs of real recovery down the road? If this was any other president, he'd probably be getting his butt handed to him. The fact Obama is beating Romney is pretty remarkable all things considered. Generally, presidents with sagging economies do not win reelection - just ask H.W. Bush, Carter and Ford.

Unemployment was 7.5% in October 1980, 7.5 % in October 1992, and 7.4% in October 1984. Carter and Bush lost, and Reagan won in a huge landslide, as did FDR in 1936 when unemployment was even higher. What was the difference? FDR and Reagan had greater personal popularity than their challengers. Carter and Bush did not. Voters usually put the economy at the top of their issues, and then usually vote for the candidate that they find most likeable.

In '83, unemployment was above 10%. It wasn't fully recovered, but there were massive job gains that year - including one month of over 400,000 jobs (which is really, really rare on the whole).

That was the difference. Had the election been held in '83 instead of '84, it's possible, even likely, Reagan loses. That's when his approval was at an all-time low (30s) and everything looked bleak. Even there, Obama defies the odds. Unlike Clinton, H.W. Bush, Reagan and Carter, Obama's approval has never really sunk below 40%.

Reagan won because there was stark evidence of an economic recovery in '84. There is no evidence whatsoever we're seeing a recovery now. Obama should have approval like Bush in '92 or Carter in '80, but he doesn't. He is defying the odds.

With the only exception being Nixon but Nixon knew how to manipulate the media. Mittens has no charisma, nobody likes him, and he's basically an empty suit who'll say anything to win. If it wasn't for money and economics he really wouldn't have a chance.

A team of Snidely Whiplash plus Stephen Vincent Benét's "Mr. Scratch" would still get over 40% of the American vote for President as long as they were running on the Republican ticket. Citizens United takes care of the rest.

The miracle is that Obama is still leading at all, and comfortably so at that.

...'nuff said.

Look at 2008. He was running against a barely-lucid septuagenarian and a bat-shit crazy half-governor. And it was close!

it's actually kind of a miracle that Obama is leading at all. He's leading despite being president while Black, despite Citizens United, despite the voter ID laws, despite various smears from RW radio and Fox News, despite a lousy economy and obstruction by a GOP-led congress, and despite the not-really-liberal media giving Mitt Robme passes on his lies and flip-flops. With him leading, I think there is a sliver of hope in this country for progress.

How many people who listen to hate radio know that it is owned by Bain.

There was a time when a person engaged in a political discussion with family and friends, and they could use Rush, Hannity or Glen Beck as a source and there wasn't a lot that you could say to convince observers that they were full of shit.

Point out at a gathering (and any other chance you get) that the hate radio personality's opinions can't be taken seriously because one of the candidates owns their show; they'll stop bringing them up.

It won't take long before people will admit that they liked disco before they'll admit they ever listened to hate radio.

It really is a game changer. We just have to exploit it.

NBC/WSJ Poll:

In the presidential horserace, Obama leads Romney by six percentage points among registered voters, 49 percent to 43 percent.

A huge percentage of respondents said they'll back the candidate who fights for the middle class.

Guess who that is?

even so, as you've said, Obama is doing well, considering.

to realize that the GOP tanked the economy, and now block any efforts to fix it - if we had an aware, thinking voting public, the Obama/Dem leads should even be greater.

The right wing noise machine is working very well to pin this issue (wrongly) on the Dems.

but no one is bothered.

This is the USA's problem - the big corps do their thing in the media.

If anything, its surprising that Mitt doesn't have a significant lead, given the electorate's perception of the state of the economy, and the reality of an unemployment rate that hasn't been improving significantly for several months.

This place can be an echo chamber, which may explain why a lot of DUers think that the election will be a "cakewalk" for the President. But outside this echo chamber, it is, and will remain, a dogfight.

and joblessness.

Hate to say it, and the freepers when they hear it howl "RACE CARD!"

But there's a large percentage of voters who won't vote for Obama for the sole reason that he is black.

Lots of racist douchebags out there.

the election. It's THE ECONOMY. As long as it is sluggish and jobs are not being created it will HURT THE INCUMBENT. OBAMA IS THE INCUMBENT. Sure the GOP did a lot of damage but people in elections tend to take economic problems out on the party that is in office. It's always been that way and always will be. If we were creating 250,000-300,000 jobs every month Obama would be 20 points ahead.

Things change.

Just had a "conversation" or "debate" with some right wingers and quite simply it was hopeless. Every point they made was full of stupidity. It didn't matter how much sense I made I couldn't reach them. I sometimes wonder why I keep trying to talk with these people.

Even the channel which everyone thinks is for liberals (MSNBC) has Joe Scarbrough for three hours every morning. And every lie uttered by Romney or his surrogates gets picked up and repeated there. Plus, you've got half the country that just picked their team and will now believe anything that team says about the other guys. Then there's Citizens United, the voter ID laws, presidenting while black...

It's amazing Obama is in the lead at all.

The republican machine has effectively captured the narrative on almost every topic because the press is either a profit seeking republican propogandist or a weak kneed, afraid to lose their job by running counter to the republican party marching orders "to be fair" "liberal" media elite.

Two weeks ago, the president scored one of the biggest political "victories" of this decade, when the SC upheld the AHCA.

Somehow, it got framed as bad news for him and good news for the Rs.

Just ...
Flat ...
Surreal ...

Romney is so very unlikable. He doesn't even have surface charm. He is not all that attractive, unless you have a thing for used car dealers that sell lemons. He doesn't appear to be all that intelligent either. He does know how to bilk the system for all it is worth though. I think if he were elected we would miss GW Bush, yes I think he is this bad and worse. He won't even try to appear like he is compromising, he will just issue decrees.

I am not buying that people can't see how bad he is. I think there are a sizable minority that looks at Romney's faults the same way we do and still don't care or they think his faults are strengths because he is a Republican, that is all they need to know. And that is very sad.

Folks here, of course, don't want to hear it -- but one of Pres. Obama's big problems is that he simply did not deliver on hope and change.

Sure the Teabaggers and Repuglicans are determined as ever to drag down Pres. Obama and the Democrats, but I know many left and progressive Obama voters from four years ago who are not going to vote or are seriously considering a third party candidate.

And, I also hear it from independent voters who lean towards Democrats -- there just isn't the excitement for Barack Obama that there was four years ago.

After eight years of war, 'terrorism', and Bush/Cheney most people in the U.S. were ready for dramatic change, and I am sorry to say Pres. Obama simply did not deliver ... he has been a center to center-right leader and he has been cautious when the times demanded boldness.

I don't need to see the litany of Pres. Obama's accomplishments, I'm just relating the kinds of things I hear (and the way I also feel to some extent).

Put this together with a crappy economy, with a corrupt Wall Street that has the same elitists running it today as four years ago (none in jail), and Citizens United ... and I think you can begin to understand why the President is not doing as well in the polls as an incumbent president as personally likable as Barack Obama should be.

Furthermore, the reaction to what is perceived as Pres. Obama's less than inspiring performance is the default that the two party system requires voter to make: the other guy. In other words, Rmoney is doing well in the polls in spite of himself.

That's just my analysis -- it is going to be a very tight election and it could go either way.

Don't hear about what the GOP have done to stop Obama from doing what's best for the average Joe. The MSM that gave Bush a pass, they are going to do the same for Rmoney. If Michelle Obama had told "you people" to be happy what they gave for taxes, we would still be talking about it. And every time she appeared, it would be brought up.

But Romney is a horrible candidate. Obama is quite lucky that Romney is so bad.

when 1% of the population controls 40% of the wealth, 10% of the population controls 80% of the wealth and neither major party says ANYTHING ABOUT IT????

The 50% who do not vote, for the most part, are unable to appreciate that sometimes voting the lesser of two evils (Obama in this case) is a CIVIC DUTY, even though that lesser evil hardly represents their interests. They fail to understand that a stagnant economy now can become a disaster for them under a Romney administration but, really, who can blame them?