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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Poll: Obama +5 in Nevada
This is from (R)asumssen:
Obama 50
Romney 45
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president
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New Poll: Obama +5 in Nevada (Original Post)
aaaaaa5a
Jul 2012
OP
jaysunb
(11,856 posts)1. If Razz says it's +5 Dem, it's probably +10. :) nt
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)2. If Obama carries the 2004 Kerry states...
all he needs is NM, NV, CO and IA to be President. He can actually lose NC, VA, FL, and OH and still have 272 electoral college votes.
New Mexico is solid blue. It is not a battle-ground state. NV leans blue. IA and CO slightly tilt blue. If we can hold these states, what happens everywhere else is irrelevant.
Thats why this poll is important.
Ras almost always fudges on the key battleground states.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)3. and this is likely voters, too, so that is good.
Ira
(51 posts)4. Nate Silver on Rasmussen
Based on historical analysis, Nate Silver says that Rasmussen is one of the polls that have a house effect that always over estimates Romney support. If he is correct, the spread should be a few points north of 5%.
http://peanutgallerypolitical.blogspot.com/