2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumReasons for the Hillary rebound? I can think of a few.
First, obviously, the emails aren't in the headlines every day. It's always been a non-scandal, but a lot of people don't read past the headlines, and very few people read corrections or retractions.
Next, Bernie has probably gotten all of his low-hanging fruit: hipsters, OWSers, white dudes wearing dashikis, and so on. Basically, people who were inclined to go nuts for Bernie have gone nuts for Bernie, but now we get to see if he can make inroads outside his natural constituency.
Also, the Bernie-mania has started to become the status quo. The first few arenas that he filled up, the media (justifiably) went "OMG this Bernie guy is really firing people up" but after the first 10 or 20 big rallies, it's like, OK, Bernie is a guy that draws big crowds. He's not the new shiny toy anymore, he's now another candidate for the Democratic nomination.
Another thing, Hillary's campaign seems to have gotten a little better. Or at least it's not making as many mistakes. Things like leaking to the press that the new plan is to carefully orchestrate moments of spontaneity.
Finally, Bernie's proposals are starting to get more critical attention. For example the $18 trillion thing. Arguably, the $18T price tag is misleading (and arguably it's not, after all, the government will be spending huge amounts of money), but the thing is, this is national politics, you can't expect that the media will portray everything in the best possible light for your candidacy. For example, Hillary's emails.
Anyway, the debates are coming, and that will surely shake things up again. But Hillary looks to be firmly in the drivers seat. On CBS this weekend she did great, despite the fact that the interviewer was basically going after her the whole time, emails, Benghazi, and so on. Looking good for HRC.
Ron Green
(9,823 posts)ignored them, and have ignored his campaign until now.
Your "low-hanging fruit" is quite a bit more diverse, and mainstream, than you allow. His "natural constituency," another curious term, is of course anyone not invested in the system of bought government under which we've been struggling for a long while.
If Hillary's campaign is getting better by moving away from its slick dissembling, that's a good thing. The problem is still that she doesn't lay out clear, principled positions that she's long held. Because there really aren't many of those that address the systemic problems.
I can't imagine that increased scrutiny of Bernie's proposals will be a boost for Hillary; you acknowledge that the WSJ piece was a lie, so therefore the truth will acquit Bernie's ideas - just as more sunshine will straighten out the Benghazi crap, the email fiasco and the other lies about your candidate.
As Oct. 13 approaches, though, I'm not so sure about that driver's seat!
DanTex
(20,709 posts)For example, first link from google:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-does-bernie-sanders-draw-huge-crowds-to-see-him/2015/08/11/4ae018f8-3fde-11e5-8d45-d815146f81fa_story.html
The whole media story has been the Bernie is the exciting candidate drawing crowds, while Hillary is the stodgy boring candidate embroiled in a scandal.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)"Next, Bernie has probably gotten all of his low-hanging fruit: hipsters, OWSers, white dudes wearing dashikis, and so on."
Seriously, dude?
bunnies
(15,859 posts)So as not to offend or anything.
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)and started thinking... I want someone who can beat those idiots.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)I don't see any way that she can win the general.
High disapprovals, lack of enthusiasm, and general dislike for the status quo will make it almost impossible for her to win.
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)There is enthusiasm actually. You may not see it because you hang on the internet or in your own group.
The "status quo" business is overblown. People want experience. Her disapprovals are mostly with Republicans so those would never vote for a Democrat anyway.
She will win the general handily.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Two, I've been to Hillary events and have seen the lack of enthusiasm first hand. And, it ain't pretty.
Three, there are Hillary supporters in "my own group" and the support for her is not very strong. Many would gladly switch to Biden if he entered the race.
Four, I haven't met anyone that cares about Hillary's experience. I have met many that are concerned about her being the status quo.
Five, her disapprovals are with Republicans, Independants, and a good number of Democrats.
She won't win the general, and it won't be close.
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)ram2008
(1,238 posts)I can think of a few reasons why her polling drop has temporarily stopped:
My hunch is she stopped her dropping of support with white women and perhaps recovered some of them back with her Ellen offensive. I mean if you think of it her campaign couldn't have gotten any worse the way they were handling things, so for her to have an OK press week was a good thing. So there her softening up a bit for the cameras and being less roped off was definitely a plus and helped her connect with women voters again.
Another reason: the debates. Everyone's been talking about Republicans and how crazy they are. You have Carson and Trump talking about Muslims, Fiorina lying about her record and distorting the planned parenthood video. Then you have all the candidates calling for a defunding of planned parenthood and outlawing abortion. Any woman watching that who was not a lunatic tea-partier would instantly become repulsed and worried. Add to the fact that another woman has surged to close to the top of the polls, I think when you contrasted the craziness of the Republicans with a smiling, saner Hillary it brought them back home to her-- at least for now.
I said it before, but I believe the polling will settle around low 40's for Hillary, high 20's for Sanders, and low 20's for Biden up until the first debate.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Her campaign was making some pretty dumb moves, and they've stopped that, thankfully. I wouldn't say it's running like a fine-tuned Ferrari at this point, but they've managed to get it up to "OK" which is a big improvement from "WTF are you doing."
And yes, I agree that the Republican debates have helped Clinton, by driving home how crazy they are. It helps in a few ways. First, it helps to dispel the "Clinton is the same as the GOP" thing -- you can't watch the GOP debates and come out thinking that. And also, since Clinton is the favorite, no news is good news for her, and the focus being on Trump and the GOP has meant less news on the Democratic side, which in turn means that things sort of slide back to an equilibrium with her ahead.
I think that for Sanders to sustain anything much closer than a 20% gap requires the news to be positive about him and negative about her. His big rallies and her emails or tone-deaf campaign or whatever.
Still, the debates are coming, and there will be another shake-up, one direction or the other. Bernie's in the game now, which is more than a lot of people thought he could do. He's the underdog, but he's a player. We'll see what happens next.
askew
(1,464 posts)mixed with the email mess going on the backburner. The problem is the email mess is going to be back on the front page shortly with news that she lied again + the expected email dump next week.
I think the media will do its best to spin the debate as a win for Hillary no matter what. But, I think the debate combined with more email bad news at the end of October & Biden jumping into the race will finally move her numbers into the mid-20s.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Dare I say it that Hillary has gotten all of her low hanging fruit, as well? Like the 2008 PUMA crowd, and the low-information people who think "the middle class needs a champion" constitutes a concrete policy and issue statement?
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)What is wrong with being counter culture? I'm proud of being counter culture.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)....In your own head.
"If sanders folks were as 'hip' as they claim"..... Yes, because liking Bernie Sanders is all about being "hip"... Has nothing to do with, oh, WHAT THE MAN IS ACTUALLY FUCKING SAYING, no sir.
Take me for intance. I have a god-damn grateful dead bernie sanders avatar. What could possibly be more "hip" than devotion to a band whose lead guitarist died 20 years ago?
It's all about staying current, see.
Maybe you should stop and think about that for a minute- is it possible some have become so inured to branding and marketing and liking the action of presenting the support of what a candidate's imagery represents as to what it says about themselves- the selfie-ization of politics, perhaps?- that they've forgotten that it's actually about real political decisions and leadership and issues and where we as Americans want this country to go?
That they cant even conceive of people supporting someone like Bernie Sanders not because of what they feel being a Sanders supporter says to the world about them and their identity, but rather because they actually want the guy in the White House as an executive --- who signs laws?
Hmmm. Just a thought.
Beyond that, my problem with the so-called insults isnt that they hurt my fee fees, so much as they're just ridiculously out of touch, sort of like, uh... hillary's campaign.
So yes, if some of us Sanders people are old out of touch freedom rockers ("turn it up, man! No, seriously, im sort of deaf, so turn it up" at least we're "hip" enough to know that there is a hip --- and we sure as fuck aint it.
... And it also aint running around wearing dashikis, the very last of which i believe was sold from a thrift store in Soho somewheres about 1975.
We (those of us on DU, of course, which skews pretty fuckin old by internet standards) know we're not millennials but at least we understand they exist and have issues they care about and they VOTE, yes they do.
Hillary's camp?
Pffffffffffft.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Hipsters are the younger people you see at Bernie rallies. You know, the guys with skinny jeans and handlebar mustaches. The hippies are the ones in the tie dyes and the grey hair. Not too hard to tell them apart.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)you seem to think it's some sort of a pose.
Which is ironic coming from the people who can't actually come up with a whole lot of policy reasons to support Sec. Clinton, but instead like Hillary because she's Hillareeeeeee and we need Hillarreeeeeeeeee because supporting Hillaryyyy is all about the excitement of supporting Hillareeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Speaking of which, I'm not sure you guys really want to go down the road of yukking it up with the mockery. That road goes two directions, Jacko.
cyberswede
(26,117 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)cascadiance
(19,537 posts)... after the ISDS courts that get put in place by TPP are used by Transcanada threaten to grab billions of dollars from us unless we get it approved. Then Obama (if he's still in power) or Hillary will throw up their hands and say their hands are tied by these court decisions where they have to get Keystone Pipeline approved to avoid that horrendous debt. This of course would be the same TPP that Obama has pushed harder than any other legislation, and Hillary is very nebulous on her understanding and stance on it (despite selling it to other countries as SOS).
Bernie could read what was happening and stood solidly against the TPP consistently where Obama, Hillary and their Republican and DINO friends didn't take stances against this corporatist government power takeover effort. THAT is why Bernie Sanders is the consistent and complete solution to avoid putting fossil fuel crap like Keystone being put in place.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)cascadiance
(19,537 posts)And a lot of people are going to be PO'd with the after effects of that, and will blame those who pushed it in the general election. Yes, the corporatist candidates aren't going to relish the effects of playing with the TPA/TPP "Free Trade" balloon with the American public who is SICK of being screwed by corporate America. Wish Hillary supporters would explain why we should not be concerned about ISDS courts and those who pushed them on us!
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)Her coming out against it was hardly full-throated and left an opening you could park a truck into.
Capn Sunshine
(14,378 posts)and with it the romantic notions of the perfect dreamy candidate, whether it be a former Senator and Secretary of State, or a sitting Senator who knows what excites people.
With the end of summer comes the serious contemplation of work and all that entails, and summer romance dissipates.
Now comes the work.
I feel like that guy on Game of Thrones who keeps repeating "Winter is Coming"
MindfulOne
(227 posts)For every ridiculous claim that Bernie's not all that, has plateaued, has a problem with POC or a gun control problem, etc., the jar gets another dollar.
Ka-Ching!
Thank you!
oasis
(49,407 posts)will put him at a huge disadvantage in the GE.
No need reply with another "ka-Ching". You're automatically on the Internet honor system.
MindfulOne
(227 posts)At a certain point, unless there's a lot of skeletons in the closet, things to go negative about, money for negative ads has a saturation point after which more money is less effective.
Bernie wins on characteristics that aren't media dependent.
He needs exposure, true, but unless the opposition comes up with a likable candidate, Bernie can win on a shoestring budget.
oasis
(49,407 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)LOL! Stop it!
oasis
(49,407 posts)Capn Sunshine
(14,378 posts)and I'll sell tie dyed stuff too.
To reflect my own wardrobe.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)It's offensive to more than half of DU since I'm willing to bet many of us don't fit any of those categories.
I don't.
askew
(1,464 posts)There is another data dump of them at the end of next week. There are multiple ongoing FOIA suits against State Dept and her that have deadlines soon. The FBI is actively investigating.
Oh, and she just got caught in another lie today:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/state-departments-account-of-e-mail-request-differs-from-clintons/2015/09/22/54cd66bc-5ed9-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html
Everyone of these lies just starts up another investigation where more lies are found.
No amount of flip-flops or fluff interviews will fix this.
Capn Sunshine
(14,378 posts)is because a RW nut job congressman requested it, and the FBI is required by law to pursue an investigation at the request of any member of congress?
askew
(1,464 posts)The IG referred the case to the FBI because he found classified material in Hillary's emails that should never have been on her server.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)She's about as exciting as a wet mop.
Wet mops don't draw large turnouts.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)They claim it's about policy, but that's obviously a farce.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I think she's a corporate-owned war hawk, too.
I agree with her on social issues (now that she's evolved on some of them).
I think it's perfectly normal to dislike several aspects of a person.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)The sum of their words, deeds, and attitudes form our impression of the candidate. It's not a single aspect, it's the perceived totality. For me Hillary, doesn't add up.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)It's possible that people can not like her for both reasons. In fact, I don't like her for about six.
MoveIt
(399 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)It could be resurrected when the next batch is released but I think unless there is some bombshell discovery it wont have much impact.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)And while your candidate just today announced she opposes KXL after long supporting it, (Shocker! Where was she several months ago?) Bernie is walking the picket lines. http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/22/bernie-sanders-joins-rally-of-striking-federal-workers-to-call-for-wage-increase/?_r=0
The independent senator from Vermont joined a rally of striking government workers on Tuesday at the Lutheran Church of the Reformation in Washington, and pressed Congress and President Obama to heed Pope Francis call for social and economic justice. Comparing the federal government to a low-wage employer such as Walmart or McDonalds, he said, there is no justice when so few have so much and so many have so little.
Mr. Sanders was joining a call to raise the minimum wage for federal workers to $15 an hour and give them the right to unionize. Last year the Obama administration raised the minimum wage for federal contract employees aseto $10.10.
Capitol workers sent a letter to Pope Francis last week explaining that many of them are homeless and cannot afford health care because of their low wages.
For Mr. Sanders, the rally was an opportunity to use the popes visit to promote an important part of his political platform: income inequality. His brief remarks drew enthusiastic cheers from the mostly black and Hispanic workers who packed the church near the Capitol.
The United States of America is the richest country in the history of the world, Mr. Sanders said, but most of the people do not feel that because most of the wealth and most of the income is going to the people at the top.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Last week it was only fifteen trillion.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Can't wait to see what you peel off WorldNetDaily next
DanTex
(20,709 posts)but given that you have trouble telling numbers apart, I can probably guess.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251595743
Capn Sunshine
(14,378 posts)The figures are based on a CBO backed study regarding a proposed universal healthcare bill- H.R. 676, introduced in 2013 by Rep. John Conyers. Gerald Friedman, a labor economist at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, conducted the analysis.
Two years ago, more or less, and we know what has happened to healthcare costs in the interim time.
What is continually ignored by throwing that figure around is the approximately 42 trillion in costs savings over the same period.
As we have stated before, no proposal put forth by a candidate would be by the same logic, "candidate proposes 42 trillion healthcare cost for American people"
The 3 trillion is also based on a CBO guess of infrastructure repair, and seems to be generally accepted. The resulting job stimulus and GNP growth is not put forth.
delrem
(9,688 posts)It hasn't been pure accelerating downhill craziness?
She hit a bump?
Wheeeeee!
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Bernie is way ahead, and the polls showing otherwise are all "skewed". I wonder, after Clinton wins the nomination, will people still think that Bernie is ahead?
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)m-lekktor
(3,675 posts)you use the right wing caricature of leftists to attack Bernie supporters and you complain of the personal attacks in the responses of the people you mock? jesus christ get the fuck over yourself already. you GET what you GIVE!
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)... in the polls? Should he just have "packed it in" then because she was "inevitable" then the way the corporate media and other corporatist groups wanted us to believe then?
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Every time you seem to indicate that you have a brain and a slightly open mind,, you come up with this kind of shit.
"all of his low-hanging fruit: hipsters, OWSers, white dudes wearing dashikis, and so on. Basically, people who were inclined to go nuts for Bernie have gone nuts for Bernie, but now we get to see if he can make inroads outside his natural constituency."
That;s the most stereotypical bunch of right-wing cultural and political bigotry I've seen in a long time.
It's one thing to have a sense of humor. But that kind of crap is just Rush in drag. Maybe we should start mimicking your parroting of Limbaughian hyperbole by calling Hillary supporters "feminazis."
Blus4u
(608 posts)The OP must stay dizzy from trying to maintain the spin.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)An offensive jerk in the mold of a poor man's Limbaugh.
MoveIt
(399 posts)The best grass roots support money can buy! now with per-region tuneable flame-settings.
m-lekktor
(3,675 posts)then he howls in protest when he gets a personal attack in response.
RandySF
(59,221 posts)Bernie filled a vacuum as alternative candidates do in every presidential cycle. He may have peaked already.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)That's why we keep repeating the same old movie in which the sequals get worse and worse.
And the cumulative damage becomes fairly evident over time as corporate status quo policies decimate the nation;s economic health, moral standards and drive down the quality of life and keep environmentally destructive policies intact.
The seeds of the increasing economic pressure than a majority of people are being threatened by had its seeds in the "What Me Worry" 80's and 90s.
RandySF
(59,221 posts)Is take back Congress, state legislatures and courts. We sometimes get so fixated on the White House that we miss where the most damage is being done.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)you know, it's the one with all the "aol.com" addresses.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)Even a dead cat will bounce, if they drop far enough.
cyberswede
(26,117 posts)You forgot Volvo-driving, latte-drinking low hanging fruit.